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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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Euro brings mjo into cod in the next couple of days before bringing it into P8 around the 11th. 0z eps brings the trough east and squashes the se ridge around this time. 

58879850-9D0F-45C4-A25E-2F78B4934652.jpeg.f0f425040b81a364ec07816ec77c6361.jpeg

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If the Euro is correct (which it likely will be looking at VP 200 maps), the MJO will make it's way through p8 and p1 which will open the door for the cold to press back into the east after a 5 day stretch of warm. The GFS suite is showing the blowtorch SE ridge likely as a counterpart to it's MJO forecast. We'll see who is right this time around.

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16 minutes ago, Newman said:

If the Euro is correct (which it likely will be looking at VP 200 maps), the MJO will make it's way through p8 and p1 which will open the door for the cold to press back into the east after a 5 day stretch of warm. The GFS suite is showing the blowtorch SE ridge likely as a counterpart to it's MJO forecast. We'll see who is right this time around.

I agree. Looking at gefs vp maps I would think it would bring the trough east like the eps did after the 11th. I also don’t know if the gefs is maybe picking up on nino forcing here. 511706C3-5EB1-43D4-9133-06FC27AFB178.thumb.png.4b556f03a8fa338afbc4bcd49dd88534.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, J.P. said:

I agree. Looking at gefs vp maps I would think it would bring the trough east like the eps did after the 11th. I also don’t know if the gefs is maybe picking up on nino forcing here. 511706C3-5EB1-43D4-9133-06FC27AFB178.thumb.png.4b556f03a8fa338afbc4bcd49dd88534.png

 

 

 

Nice to have another seemingly knowledgeable poster  in this subforum. Maybe it will help build up the following.

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4 minutes ago, wkd said:

Nice to have another seemingly knowledgeable poster  in this subforum. Maybe it will help build up the following.

Hopefully I can bring some good content. I look forward to engaging in some good discussion here.

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You still in denial about the upcoming gradient pattern and super active stj ? Even after 12z? 

Based on an MJO forecast that's been off all winter long? I will wait until i see a good pattern in the medium range.

 

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Euro OP looks good * sarcasm meter high

Expedited breakdown is we lost several more days and pushed the "good" pattern to the 15th and beyond now after adding one more cutter. 

 

 

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We saw the VP 200 maps school the RMM plots in early January. The same is going to happen here with the rossby waves interfering with the RMM plots. We should go into p8, p1, maybe p2. That will allow for a much better pattern to unfold from Feb 10th onward. The Hawaiian trough and EPO ridge should result in the western trough to kick east. We see the gradient pattern setup from the 8th to the 13th with more of a coastal threat taking shape after that.

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37 minutes ago, Newman said:

We saw the VP 200 maps school the RMM plots in early January. The same is going to happen here with the rossby waves interfering with the RMM plots. We should go into p8, p1, maybe p2. That will allow for a much better pattern to unfold from Feb 10th onward. The Hawaiian trough and EPO ridge should result in the western trough to kick east. We see the gradient pattern setup from the 8th to the 13th with more of a coastal threat taking shape after that.

Pac wave Forcing East of dateline with neg pna = pineapple connection and generally steady moisture stream thru stj with PV still in Canada and 50/50 plus transient to steady neg NAO getting nearer on ens. We r entering a good spot after the 10th if all holds. Wont take but a minor shift in the hl pac to turn it into dare I say an 'epic pattern'.

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Made it up to 48 yesterday after a low of 24.  Currently 29 and not seeing any fog around here yet... although most of the snow cover is pretty much gone outside of shaded patches, and with the higher dps/humidity, whatever moisture is airborne is probably freezing on contact.

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Yeah mid month sure looks super 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

It really does look cold and threatening. Solid 50/50 in place too for a change..Gradient wave sliding under the region. Dont like talking specifics ar range but ceetainly a period to keep an eye on!

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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I like the upcoming pattern less than steve but more than redsky. I agree it will be a gradient pattern but one that favors the lehigh valley/interior. Unless we get a -nao any wave we get ejecting out of the SW is going to cut to our west and will be a cad set up. I like the parade of highs to our north though. The ensembles are still split whether or not we see a neg nao much like all of winter. If we get it then I believe this pattern will deliver for 95, if we don't I think the best we can hope for is 1-3" to rain events...

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Latest MJO progs doing the unicorn look. Low amplification trip from 7 to cod exiting thru 8 then thru 1 and 2. Its not over yet boys especially if this is close to accurate as the MJO has been driving the pattern.

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56 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I like the upcoming pattern less than steve but more than redsky. I agree it will be a gradient pattern but one that favors the lehigh valley/interior. Unless we get a -nao any wave we get ejecting out of the SW is going to cut to our west and will be a cad set up. I like the parade of highs to our north though. The ensembles are still split whether or not we see a neg nao much like all of winter. If we get it then I believe this pattern will deliver for 95, if we don't I think the best we can hope for is 1-3" to rain events...

Totally agree this favors the classic N and W spots climo speaking. As I pointed out in mid Atl we dont need nor want a huge wrapped up coastal low imho. IF we are going to score this will be the pattern to do it most likely outside of some super convoluted fluke March storm. This is why I'm optimistic and hopeful.  These patterns have produced very well for us in years past.

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while mjo looks good I am still worried that we are running out of climo...right now looking like it won't be until 2/15 until things look decent, possibly 2/12-2/13 if things break right. We really need this pattern to come to fruition by mid month otherwise, we are playing with fire climo wise. Last March was an anomaly big time. 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

while mjo looks good I am still worried that we are running out of climo...right now looking like it won't be until 2/15 until things look decent, possibly 2/12-2/13 if things break right. We really need this pattern to come to fruition by mid month otherwise, we are playing with fire climo wise. Last March was an anomaly big time. 

I think we have until basically the last few days of Feb to get something out of a not so perfect pattern. Once we get to the waning days of Feb and certainly into March it takes something anomalous and very convoluted as you said so I agree. 

Again tho I'm not saying SE PA is going to cash in after this week. What I'm saying is if we have a chance with a not so perfect look this is probably the setup tho favored N and W areas are higher probability. 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I think it's a near certainty we hit 60 once or twice this week...wiggum rule?

Mos data hits 60 today with low 60s by Friday. Then we start tracking! FVC3PO is a weenie run with at least 4 snow events after this week. 

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Great looking pattern on the gefs in the long range. Active southern jet and northern jet supplying the cold air. Higher heights over Greenland. 

A550F8AB-39D8-4D2A-BE55-F18137F40821.thumb.png.9f8159b1b5485fb4656dbef5327165d7.png

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6 minutes ago, J.P. said:

Great looking pattern on the gefs in the long range. Active southern jet and northern jet supplying the cold air. Higher heights over Greenland. 

A550F8AB-39D8-4D2A-BE55-F18137F40821.thumb.png.9f8159b1b5485fb4656dbef5327165d7.png

JP with that setup the weak SE Ridge is absolutely crucial otherwise the ripping NS will suppress the best boundary too far South. I think we r in a good spot moving forward in terms of pattern and potential. Nor sure I buy the NAO ridge verbatim as weve been teased many times already BUT we dont need a sustained neg NAO to produce solid overrunning events. Now if we time a wave with even a transient neg NAO then we could be looking at quite an event. I'm more interested in the gradient look tho for now and staying away from the unicorn hunt. A couple low warning level events heck even ONE would suffice for me. Get something better and that's just gravy. 

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