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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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Just hit 61F here. Not sure Wiggum Rule will work out here with day one of 60+  but we'll see. We will have another chance later this week tho. General rule is within the next 5 days of hitting 60 during heart of winter we see flakes in one form or another. 94% success rate since keeping logs from 2007. 

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Currently lounging in shorts with a beverage in full sunshine the 61F feels like May 1 a tad different than being in the middle of the epic 3' snow pattern from the weeklies lol

 

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40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

JP with that setup the weak SE Ridge is absolutely crucial otherwise the ripping NS will suppress the best boundary too far South. I think we r in a good spot moving forward in terms of pattern and potential. Nor sure I buy the NAO ridge verbatim as weve been teased many times already BUT we dont need a sustained neg NAO to produce solid overrunning events. Now if we time a wave with even a transient neg NAO then we could be looking at quite an event. I'm more interested in the gradient look tho for now and staying away from the unicorn hunt. A couple low warning level events heck even ONE would suffice for me. Get something better and that's just gravy. 

Make up your mind is it a N&W of Philly pattern or a suppressed boundary too far south LOL

In actuality if one analyzes the winter pattern to date - it's both

 

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Tomorrow i hit the beach complete with beach chair and stocked cooler. Thanks to the winter sun angle no lotion or umbrella needed lol.

February rocks

 

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Make up your mind is it a N&W of Philly pattern or a suppressed boundary too far south LOL

In actuality if one analyzes the winter pattern to date - it's both

 

Depends on what the NAO decides to do honestly . If it goes strong negative we suppress the boundary *possibly* too far South but also run the risk of a wrapped up storm. No ridging and boundary favors N and W. Climo says N and W favored but again gotta see specifically for this year's situation what if anything the NAO does in relation to SE Ridging.

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Euro and FV3CPO say gradient pattern produces next week. Redsky you should bring the beach blanket and anything else you can do to anger the winter wx gods....your pessimism is working. Keep up the good work ;)

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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

JP with that setup the weak SE Ridge is absolutely crucial otherwise the ripping NS will suppress the best boundary too far South. I think we r in a good spot moving forward in terms of pattern and potential. Nor sure I buy the NAO ridge verbatim as weve been teased many times already BUT we dont need a sustained neg NAO to produce solid overrunning events. Now if we time a wave with even a transient neg NAO then we could be looking at quite an event. I'm more interested in the gradient look tho for now and staying away from the unicorn hunt. A couple low warning level events heck even ONE would suffice for me. Get something better and that's just gravy. 

Yea Its tough to bite on the neg nao. It could happen but there’s been too many head fakes to get excited about it popping in the long range. I too am more interested in the gradient pattern possibly producing something moderate in the 7-10 day. However, if we were to progress into the type of pattern the gefs shows in the long range, that could produce something big. -nao and 50/50 with a split flow. This look will probably be different at 0z lol but with the mjo moving into favorable phases who knows. 

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Made it up to 60 here. Feels nice!

 

Latest EPS at the end of the run. The -EPO will try to bully the SE ridge down. There is no -AO which is a bit worrying, but the EPO ridge will funnel low level cold down into the region. This first week of February was always forecast to be warm so enjoy it. We should flip back to a colder pattern this weekend.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

Euro:

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

FOLLOW THE GRADIENT:

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Tomorrow i hit the beach complete with beach chair and stocked cooler. Thanks to the winter sun angle no lotion or umbrella needed lol.

February rocks

 

 

You are on the wrong coast, the Oregon coast picked up a few inches of snow.  

 

OregonSnow.png

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Can't even get one good fantasy run from the GFS only cutter parades

 

Euro, eps, fv3, gfs all on board signaling a potential 'event' in 7 days give or take. Similar setups just some timing diffs irt waves rolling out of the SW. Euro lesds the way with a MECS while the GFS family is a bit slower with the wave allowing cold air to erode quicker so it's not a clean snow system but more a snow ro rain or mix look but it's the GFS ,and its 7 days away so yeah. Something to keep an eye on.

LR FWIW looks solid on both GEFS and EPS with good ATL side on both and out West the EPS want a strong epo ridge while the GEFS arent quite as enthused on that idea just yet.

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro, eps, fv3, gfs all on board signaling a potential 'event' in 7 days give or take. Similar setups just some timing diffs irt waves rolling out of the SW. Euro lesds the way with a MECS while the GFS family is a bit slower with the wave allowing cold air to erode quicker so it's not a clean snow system but more a snow ro rain or mix look but it's the GFS ,and its 7 days away so yeah. Something to keep an eye on.

LR FWIW looks solid on both GEFS and EPS with good ATL side on both and out West the EPS want a strong epo ridge while the GEFS arent quite as enthused on that idea just yet.

 

Agreed, this is the best the LR has looked all year. Finally a legit threat at 7 days out as well. Get your rest this week, the next few may be active. I still think it's going to be a gradient pattern that 95 may lose out on but that's the chips dealt at the moment. Let's hope MJO projections are correct too.

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61F here already. More 60s forecast thru Friday. I'm officially hoisting the Wiggum Rule watch....we should see flakes flying by the middle of next week in some form or fashion over parts of this region.  

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

The one little snow the GFS did have is a massive lakes cutter now net week

 

Funny....euro, ukmet, fv3 on board for next week. The euro and fv3 extended are multiple chances thereafter. I'm not sure how much stock I put into the GFS but hey it could be right too. Definitely not a clean setup more a thump to mix look right now.

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1 hour ago, J.P. said:

VP maps look good for week 2. Mjo likely to go into phase 8 and probably 1 imo. 

Very amplified phase 8 at that. 50/50 coming in much stronger as well could help pump heights ahead ie some hl Greenland ridging.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS is hinting at another 60F beach day next week, just need some seperation from the rain.

 

Just went and looked not even close not even on mos data. Closest I saw was low to mid 40s with the gradient setup to our South thru wildwood NJ and 60s south of there. Only model that has the gradient this close to us so umm yeah only 15-20 degrees or so off the mark bud.

gfs_T2m_neus_33.png

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Based on 12z I'm thinking the next mon-Tues threat is legit now. General similar setup on most guidance....gfs OP still seems confused by the MJO and the GGEM has been horrendous. I honestly dont even look at the latter anymore.  Right now thinking these setups favor N and W areas outside of I95 irt a clean snowfall event. I95 and nearby probably a thump to mix to drizzle/dryslot type. That's my thinking right now of course it's a ways out there and will undoubtedly change. Good to have something following this heat wave tho :P

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