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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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Just now, RedSky said:

I'm in awe as the GFS brings up every perturbation possible to bring snow to the south and then rain here and it's not alone.

 

 

Winter of azz will live in infamy. Cant wait to tell my grandkids stories.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Winter of azz will live in infamy. Cant wait to tell my grandkids stories.

Ahhh yes tales of the beach days, the deep snows in Virginia and our floods and how high I measured the mud. 

 

 

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winter is definitely coming...even if the storm next week is a whiff. MJO is certainly hitting 8-1-2 so we are going to get a favorable period at some point but it may end up being like last year.

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Best case scenario for next week is hope for something in the 1-3" range from the leading impulse and pull for the big midwest storm to cut so far west it is little more than a front with some rain.

 

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GEFS, fv gfs, and ukmet(@144 extrapolating) all look like decent thumps over to mix/rain. We can back off the ledge. Things are still very much in play next week.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Here's my 60F Ralph lol 

 

 

gfs_T2m_us_30.png

Well, maybe we can eek out one more Wiggum Rule  before the period/range I like to use fades. But yeah looks like more beach days coming up. 

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58 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I don't remember 78,2010,2015 looking anything like the euro

 

Or the EPS or the LR gfs. Good chance more unicorns are being hunted. MJO being the driver looks good but who is to say Its right? 2 days ago it was traversing the COD back into 5 now it's off the charts 8-1. Complete 180 in 48 hours. I want to buy it but I dont trust it. 

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Euro has completely stuck a dagger in the heart for the Tuesday system in classic Doctor No fashion unless you live far N and W. However it has 2 MECS/HECS later in the run. Lucy continues setting us up with the head fakes. This model needs to be taken out back to the shed. 

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Oddly enough the Euro family seems to imply this coming 10 day period will be our window of opportunity while the GFS and even CMC families say nope this period is meh but just wait til past Day 10.

EPS pushes back/delays the good looking ATL pattern and even attempts to negate things by completely fizzling out the 50/50 and replacing it with yep you guessed it....the return of the WAR by day 10 (I'm back to trying not going deep into detail beyond day 10 mode again). 

The GEFS and GEPS stick the 50/50 and hold it thru the end of the run but thru the day 10 anyway they are far apart in how the Atl side evolves. 

One of these 2 camps (EPS vs GEFS/GEPS) is going to fail miserably. What's more odd is the Euro camp is the one going bonkers over next 10 days then collapses after while the GFS camp is steady and builds a better Atl towards the end of the 10 day stretch (and beyond). 

Based on this current winter LR history and also Dr No just being Dr No I can already see in my head how the next 2 weeks play out but I wont post my gut feelings on that as that's not how meteo works. I will alternatelt say I dont see how the GEFS can be far off IF their MJO progs are even close to accurate but we've been burned quite a bit already this year. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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MJO is going to high amp phase 8...i'm not too worried about LR for once. Mon and tues event got more promising overnight. Almost all guidance has a front end thump before any changeover and this isn't taking into account the CAD which won't become evident until we get closer. I'm actually beginning to like this threat. I think there's a solid chance of a 3-6" thump to ice to drizzle then a glacier freeze. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS OP says we can dream. Next 10 days snowfall map (majority of that in SEPA from late next week):

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

I was just drooling over these.  One can dream. GFS has us getting more next Friday, whereas FV3 has us getting more Tues-wed.  I think our best bet is ~8 days out but I'm not much of a met, that's why I like to read these threads.  You guys always have interesting input, even if I dont always understand everything.   What website do you use to access the euro suite?  I've been using tropical tidbits, but something more specific to the northeast or mid-atl would be nice.

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3 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I was just drooling over these.  One can dream. GFS has us getting more next Friday, whereas FV3 has us getting more Tues-wed.  I think our best bet is ~8 days out but I'm not much of a met, that's why I like to read these threads.  You guys always have interesting input, even if I dont always understand everything.   What website do you use to access the euro suite?  I've been using tropical tidbits, but something more specific to the northeast or mid-atl would be nice.

all regional euro maps are pay sites only unfortunately. day 8 threat looks interesting now but there's still 4 systems to get through before that so a ton can change. great look on modeling right now and fits with the MJO hitting 8 a few days before hand.

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

MJO is going to high amp phase 8...i'm not too worried about LR for once. Mon and tues event got more promising overnight. Almost all guidance has a front end thump before any changeover and this isn't taking into account the CAD which won't become evident until we get closer. I'm actually beginning to like this threat. I think there's a solid chance of a 3-6" thump to ice to drizzle then a glacier freeze. 

Yep nothing has changed for Mon-Tues still looks like a thump to mix drizzle/rain situation which is typical for us and how we get most of our climo snows tbh. Unsure of total amounts right now still depends on CAD. 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

all regional euro maps are pay sites only unfortunately. day 8 threat looks interesting now but there's still 4 systems to get through before that so a ton can change. great look on modeling right now and fits with the MJO hitting 8 a few days before hand.

I hope the MJO looks work out and they arent head fakes. Remember just 3 days ago the MJO was hanging in the COD on then re-emerging near phase 5. Did a complete 180. We need to hope this holds.  SOI tanking so that's a good sign. I'm not overly enthusiastic until these looks get closer....we are still hoping for a pattern change starting near Day 10. Like in January the best chances could end up being right under our noses in the medium range so for now I'm trying to avoid looking long range and just taking what we can get while we can still get it. Pitchers and catchers in under a week now.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I hope the MJO looks work out and they arent head fakes. Remember just 3 days ago the MJO was hanging in the COD on then re-emerging near phase 5. Did a complete 180. We need to hope this holds.  SOI tanking so that's a good sign. I'm not overly enthusiastic until these looks get closer....we are still hoping for a pattern change starting near Day 10. Like in January the best chances could end up being right under our noses in the medium range so for now I'm trying to avoid looking long range and just taking what we can get while we can still get it. Pitchers and catchers in under a week now.

good sign anomalies like this are showing up in the LR though.... that is an insane block at day 15. Let's hope it holds as we get closer but looks like a direct response to the MJO.

 

 

500h_anom.na.png

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep nothing has changed for Mon-Tues still looks like a thump to mix drizzle/rain situation which is typical for us and how we get most of our climo snows tbh. Unsure of total amounts right now still depends on CAD. 

Does CAD have an effect in SEPA due to the appalachians or is it more of a localized effect?  

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7 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Does CAD have an effect in SEPA due to the appalachians or is it more of a localized effect?  

Can have an effect here in SE PA generally N and W of the Del River more specifically the fall line tho. Needless to say areas along the river tend to have the low level cold eroded quicker than areas farther N and W and valleys in and throughout the area. 

Eta: really depends on if there is a flow around any reflection of a surface low off the coast, the location, and the strength along with HP location and strength to the N or NE of there forcing the cold south thus damming up or getting trapped East of the mountains. Other times I've seen just a narrow wedge right along the mountains so it depends but generally west of the River is how it plays out. I've seen CAD signatures broad enough to extend into S NJ before so very dependent on what I mentioned above. 

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