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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to possible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. 

I'll pass for lots of reasons...a quarter inch or less looks nice on the trees the next morning, but beyond that I'd like mine as snow or even sleet please.

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Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward. 

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward. 

Agreed - there will be big swings on the 2nd event this weekend. I suspect that one will cut to the west with a secondary popping somewhere along the mid-atlantic coast - how far south that forms will hold the key for how much is white vs wet

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2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Agreed - there will be big swings on the 2nd event this weekend. I suspect that one will cut to the west with a secondary popping somewhere along the mid-atlantic coast - how far south that forms will hold the key for how much is white vs wet

Even in the LR range this op shows the perfect fail scenario. This is opposite of what it has been showing and what many of the ens show but like I said (and I never trust op models at range) but this run was a good example of what *could* go wrong.

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Even in the LR range this op shows the perfect fail scenario. This is opposite of what it has been showing and what many of the ens show but like I said (and I never trust op models at range) but this run was a good example of what *could* go wrong.

In the what could go wrong GFS verbatim, not saying it's going to happen, is three count em three monster rainstorms the second half of January in a very cold pattern and would put like a hundred exclamation points on the winter of azz

It would be like the ying yang universe making up for the winters of 2010-215 and cleaning the slate

 

 

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ECM has been mitigating the late January arctic break rather significantly it's down to normal January cold, which isn't so bad if it isn't going to snow.

Likely MJO influence

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Euro and Gem rain and get the temps into the 50's(Jersey at least) and flash freeze it into the teens then single digits in hours. 

 

Didn't they both show a decent storm last week at about this time frame and look how that worked out. Im not jumping off and on till Thursday at the earliest. I really don't want that Blockbuster cold anyway. Like they say Patience 

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I'm so confused trying to follow this one.  That is one crazy gradient of almost 30 degrees---so even if it rains here as the low pressure is to our west--as it pulls away some artic air rushes in.  I was just reading the HWO for our area as they are talking flash freeze.  Even if we end up on the warm side of the storm for a while and it rains, and precip has ended before the drop in temps, what sort of impacts do you think might occur?  You can't salt roads while it's raining and if that cold air comes rushing in, it may make for some icy travel?

Thanks--please correct me if I'm not following current guidance thinking....

From HWO:

For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm is probable, however the details including precipitation types and impacts are less certain at this time. A flash freeze is possible Sunday afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the area.

 

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13 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

UKMET gives some slim hope for the region

Careful the Ukie and the ECM have often put out false signals day 5-6 the last couple years, more pain then i want to remember 

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Careful the Ukie and the ECM have often put out false signals day 5-6 the last couple years, more pain then i want to remember 

 

Oh, I'm sure it'll be wrong but one can hope.  Weird that it's so different from everything else.

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Yeah just saw the run the British try to save the region as we are on the brink of winter annihilation. Dr No is on his way from the evil lair as this very moment.

 

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So where is this -NAO that the SSW was supposed to usher in? Looking like we are mostly positive through the end of the month now with no end in sight. Quickly running out of time on this winter... This is how I felt winter would unwind but I was worried about my forecast with all the SSW talk... now though looks like it didn't do much for us. LR has threats but we'll have to thread the needle and we see how that's working out. This is the worst kind of pattern.... below normal temps and above normal rain.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

So where is this -NAO that the SSW was supposed to usher in? Looking like we are mostly positive through the end of the month now with no end in sight. Quickly running out of time on this winter... This is how I felt winter would unwind but I was worried about my forecast with all the SSW talk... now though looks like it didn't do much for us. LR has threats but we'll have to thread the needle and we see how that's working out. This is the worst kind of pattern.... below normal temps and above normal rain.

The 12z GFS doesn't look bad

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This isnt a bad ops look at this range. Finally a decent look that is moving closer instead of stationary or delayed. The -NAO just a day or so after is epic but I'm trying not to look too far ahead anymore. This alone is 8 days out so yeah this can change too:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

So where is this -NAO that the SSW was supposed to usher in? Looking like we are mostly positive through the end of the month now with no end in sight. Quickly running out of time on this winter... This is how I felt winter would unwind but I was worried about my forecast with all the SSW talk... now though looks like it didn't do much for us. LR has threats but we'll have to thread the needle and we see how that's working out. This is the worst kind of pattern.... below normal temps and above normal rain.

Here. I dont buy it verbatim but the ens have a weaker looking neg NAO same time frame which would be a win. Slowly creeping closer anyway. Get this within 7 days and I'll start to buzz.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_44.png

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This isnt a bad ops look at this range. Finally a decent look that is moving closer instead of stationary or delayed. The -NAO just a day or so after is epic but I'm trying not to look too far ahead anymore. This alone is 8 days out so yeah this can change too:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

The fact that it’s 8 days out is very encouraging. Usually it’s Day 10-15. What do you think of next week’s threat? 

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This isnt a bad ops look at this range. Finally a decent look that is moving closer instead of stationary or delayed. The -NAO just a day or so after is epic but I'm trying not to look too far ahead anymore. This alone is 8 days out so yeah this can change too:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

Admit it....you can't help yourself!!!  (kidding)

I'm glad I've been super-mega-ultra busy this winter. If I had the time to look at every model I would have jumped through the window by now, just pure torture. It's like getting smacked in the face every 6 hours...carry on Ralph and watch out for the glass. (Steve)

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Here. I dont buy it verbatim but the ens have a weaker looking neg NAO same time frame which would be a win. Slowly creeping closer anyway. Get this within 7 days and I'll start to buzz.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_44.png

Yeah but I'm talking more of a sustained neg nao. It's encouraging we see a neg nao finally inside 10 days but will need to see some consistency of it not quickly breaking down like we have seen much of winter.

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9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Admit it....you can't help yourself!!!  (kidding)

I'm glad I've been super-mega-ultra busy this winter. If I had the time to look at every model I would have jumped through the window by now, just pure torture. It's like getting smacked in the face every 6 hours...carry on Ralph and watch out for the glass. (Steve)

I look no doubt about it. But I backed off overanalyzing every detail and wasting my energy and time on anything more than a week out for now. The fact the op is almost at that 7 day mark is somewhat encouraging tho.

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