• Member Statistics

    16,653
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    samithdfm
    Newest Member
    samithdfm
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Tibet said:

What kind of time frame is this modeled to happen over? Shift that a little east and the Lehigh Valley will definitely be beating the 3 foot we got some years back

I wouldn't think/worry about it because it won't happen...fantasy run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Newman said:

Sorry Redsky.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

I would feel much worse if i lived in west Philly for that one, 20 miles west 40" lol it even screws Qtown 24" doesn't do it if there is 40" 15 miles west

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

OMG that was the 0z EMC i didn't even know it my bad! 12z went south Dohhhhhhhh

 

Better that we are seeing things move E and/or South tbh. I would rather have it se and need to come west or even graze us se as opposed to a cutter but that's just me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

We know the FV3 over amps everything it's like the old DGEX, i fear something like the new ECM more than anything

 

I wouldnt worry nor would I even get overly invested in this being 7 days+ out. Raising an eyebrow of interest for sure tho.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Better that we are seeing things move E and/or South tbh. I would rather have it se and need to come west or even graze us se as opposed to a cutter but that's just me

Have you been following winter of 2019? everything S&E to this point and that is without the -NAO on it's way

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nary a mention of the fvc3po with temps well below zero morning of MLK day? Even the gfs is in the low single digits. The fv3 loop of 2m temps is just ridiculous. Near the end of the run the entire Northeast part of the US  is below zero. I thought I saw a high of 4 degrees the one day. We know that likely wont verify but regardless there is some anomalous well BN cold on the way.  If u havent winterized yet u r just about out of time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the storm system next weekend, looks like the pattern gets overwhelmed with cold in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. Problem with that is most guidance looks dry as well tho who knows m how individual shortwaves will perform after next week. Wouldnt be surprised at all tho to see us go thru an extended period of cold/dry. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keeping an eye on Friday....looks like a sneaky little event trying to move thru.

FV3 for the larger event over the weekend is one of the biggest impact ice/sleet storms I ever remember seeing modeled for i95. Philly verbatim sees 3-3.5" LE heavy ice and sleet followed by a burst of heavy snow. Then frigid cold. Would make 1994 look like child's play. Glaciers for weeks and no power up and down i95. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 10 day snow forecast 

zero.zero imby lol not alone either near half the EPS members paint a snow hole encompassing central NJ. Also Boston not so good

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EPS overall look is colder. Probably more of a sleet/ice/snow....even some plain rain signature than all snow. Dont think it's all rain either.

Individual eps members are mixed. There are some HECS, some MECS, smattering of SECS.....some wild ice and sleet storms, some far NW crushers, some shutouts....everything but the kitchen sink.

That sick mass of below zero to the N is what has me concerned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The differences between the Euro and other guidance is the timing of the shortwave. The Euro delays the shortwave which allows for the TPV induced press to fully come through the area. The GFS is earlier which allows for it to blast through before any real cold air can funnel in. If I were to bet, I would think the TPV press would be undermodeled at this distance, but you don't know. Either way, the cold air in the wake of the storm is absolutely frigid. If a major snow and ice storm occurred like the Euro depicted, thousands would be without power with no heat, etc. That would be more damaging than the storm itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS is a 1'+ MECS most of PA including Philly....little ice or sleet this run.

We need something big down 28 - 0 about to start the second half 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

You gotta admit it's nice to look at but a PITA as far as driving,electricity (lack of) and down trees...

If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to impossible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.