showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: How is it encouraging? Last night it was a solid hit, and now it has trended into suppression and better agreement with every other piece of relevant guidance. So the Euro and EPS are no longer relevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Any word on the 12z UKIE? Precip only goes to 72 but here is the MSLP at 144. I would think that has room to come north after 144 (especially compared to the regular GFS) based on that panel but I'd defer to the experts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Any word on the 12z UKIE? It's much better than GFS. compare these two panels, UKMET vs GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: When do we start extrapolating the NAM? i started friday, didn't you? Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: that's irrelevant to its trend. And it's likely to get more accurate every 6 hours. what trend? you just said the thing shifted south. if there was a trend, it wouldn't have shifted at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you look at the FV3 over the last 48 hours its pretty much locked in with each run only jumping around a little bit well within a normal error at this range. If you take the average of all those runs its obviously focusing its attention on southern into central VA. A few runs get DC into the mix and a few miss south... but the bottom line is the FV3 is "right there" with a close miss to the south. Its not suppressing the thing to oblivion. The kind of adjustments it would take from day 6 to turn a southern VA hit into a DC hit are a fairly minor synoptically for that range. Maybe, but it's alarming that it took a step towards its brother's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: When do we start extrapolating the NAM? I did last night in the panic room... it said get your tear drop ready...its never going to snow again!!!! Its was a one time infinity extension to the 84 hour NAM! "this post inspired by Chuck" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 UK, better than GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: that's irrelevant to its trend. And it's likely to get more accurate every 6 hours. It trended north from 6z if all you care about is the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Last precip panel for UKMET is one swiss boy's dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It does seem logical to ask the question as to whether the Canadian could possibly be correct when you frame it with the "this is a northern stream issue, northern stream vorts originate in the main domain of the canadian model, so shouldn't it be able to resolve those better" thinking. Is there any evidence to suggest that that model handles the northern stream better? And how are 500 verification scores created for global models? Can a model handle certain regions better, some worse and that affect its scores? Or no? I haven't seen any evidence that the Canadian does better with northern stream systems, but I've never really looked. There's lots of evidence that it's not so good with tropical systems though. There do seem to be some regions that models handle better than others; for example, all of the globals seem to do better in the northern hemisphere than southern -- I suspect it's because we have better assimilation data in the northern hemisphere. I usually look at the North American verification scores, as that appears to be the smallest region for which scores are widely available. LWX has recently developed an in-house tool that allows them to quickly compare recent verification scores in our area. They gave a presentation on it at AMS this year. https://ams.confex.com/ams/29WAF25NWP/videogateway.cgi/id/47907?recordingid=47907&uniqueid=Paper345889&entry_password=580936 Unfortunately I don't think they plan on releasing it to the public. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: Last precip panel for UKMET: Extrapolating that shows 1-2' for DCA and none for Stephens City. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It trended north from 6z if all you care about is the trend. Maybe I got 0z and 6z switched. But the last FV3 run I saw was well north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The SLP is actually about the same at 144 on the UK and GFS BUT the UK has a much more favorable h5 flow on top to allow it to come up. Might not this run but its closer to what we need then the GFS which has the northern stream crushing everything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ukie looks decent @ h5. Would prob allow enough northward trajectory to get our area into the precip shield. Good run imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Pages of extrapolation and weenie let down! I honestly think, 24 hours from now - we will still not know what the heck is going to happen... BUT we may be able to claim a trend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Snowchaser said: DT is bring up the 2014 snowstorm Only to say the GFS sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie looks decent @ h5. Would prob allow enough northward trajectory to get our area into the precip shield. Good run imo. Just going off that precip SLP and h5 at 140 it looks like a central VA storm... but again that is kind of where I want it right now anyways. Botton line is nothing else looks like the GFS. There is a big difference between a close miss and a "not even close" look at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just going off that precip SLP and h5 at 140 it looks like a central VA storm... but again that is kind of where I want it right now anyways. Botton line is nothing else looks like the GFS. There is a big difference between a close miss and a "not even close" look at this range. but the southern trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Maybe I got 0z and 6z switched. But the last FV3 run I saw was well north of 12z. Pull up the FV3 at 140 and then go back over like the last 8 runs...they are just bouncing around a center point that indicates a southern/central VA hit. Some are a little north, some a little south, but they are obviously all in the same general idea and basically saying the same thing for that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: but the southern trend! Oh something is going south alright... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Hopefully the jog north starts prior to the start of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Pull up the FV3 at 140 and then go back over like the last 8 runs...they are just bouncing around a center point that indicates a southern/central VA hit. Some are a little north, some a little south, but they are obviously all in the same general idea and basically saying the same thing for that range. Yeah, looking at that right now. Seems more consistent than other modeling and definitely very different than its brother. Better than being on the south-side of the storm, but I find no comfort in a central / southern VA storm as currently modeled. That's been a recurring theme for the last 2 winters, and we've rolled snake-eyes at every turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yeah, looking at that right now. Seems more consistent than other modeling and definitely very different than its brother. Better than being on the south-side of the storm, but I find no comfort in a central / southern VA storm as currently modeled. That's been a recurring theme for the last 2 winters, and we've rolled snake-eyes at every turn. We will see but those storms were much weaker STJ systems first of all and second I remember around day 5-7 the consensus had shifted way south with most of them...south of where we are now with the majority of the guidance...assuming the Euro doesnt crap the bed soon. We recovered in some of those cases from a weak wave off the southeast to a big snow for just southeast of our area... if we are looking at a richmond hit at day 5 the same kind of correction would work for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This came from a NE met yesterday regarding the northwest trend with STJ systems Nice find...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro at 120 looks slower and further south, but - the trough is a little sharper at the same time, too. So, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 through 120 its definitely not as bad as yesterdays 12z totally squashed run...but its not as good as the runs that had a big hit either. ETA: just looking at the combination of the strength of the stj wave and the northern stream configuration on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Through 132. Trough sharper as stated above. Surface low a little further north and its slower. (Compared to 0Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 From HM on the Twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1069659044577771522 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Whoa...euro phases some northern energy at 144. Closed 500 low near western TN/northern AL. Nice CAD signature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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