psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 @Bob Chill @WxUSAF The worry about thermals from the euro op might be overdone. Looking at all the ensemble members that climb the coast they all have a good snowfall on the NW side. Some go to rain in DC because they track inside our ideal track but none are pure Rainers. I think the implication being that if it's actually precipitating in our area the "marginal" cold is good enough given convective cooling processes. That could change but this EPS run didn't seem to think temps are a big problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Thank you for saying this. The mean washes out the decent sized camp that gives us a much more classic storm. 15 members are a significant snow in DC. Then another 6 come too far north and rain. A few fringe jobs. Then about 25 total southern slider misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. Gotta say I’m impressed with some of the numbers the Euro is spitting out for my area. Would be nuts man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 15 members are a significant snow in DC. Then another 6 come too far north and rain. A few fringe jobs. Then about 25 total southern slider misses. So basically, we are staring at roughly a 50/50 for measurable in DC? Could be interpreting the individual members wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS and GEFS now both look about the same d11-15. The mild period seems to only be 4-5 days and then a shift to pretty much a textbook Dec Nino hemispheric pattern. Weeklies will probably be faster with the +PNA (and maybe -EPO) than the last run. Hopefully the last 10 days of the month turn back towards a more wintry pattern for the east. Seems that is the direction ens are going for now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Gotta say I’m impressed with some of the numbers the Euro is spitting out for my area. Would be nuts man! Ninos are typically very very good to your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS and GEFS now both look about the same d11-15. The mild period seems to only be 4-5 days and then a shift to pretty much a textbook Dec Nino hemispheric pattern. Weeklies will probably be faster with the +PNA (and maybe -EPO) than the last run. Hopefully the last 10 days of the month turn back towards a more wintry pattern for the east. Seems that is the direction ens are going for now. To me it looks like the base state of most of the important factors for our snow chances are pretty good. Attempts at bad patterns quickly bounce back into a pretty good look. I think it's only a matter of time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol And this was what it ended up as Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead. 2 I remember a few things about this storm. The first was how convinced I was it was going to go south, and second how the forecast started to really change in our favor as we got closer. The last was DT's comment that there was "no reason why this will not go north" and it opened the door to the historic storm.. and it was a good cold snow! My hopes are becoming less and less for this to turn favorable, but there is hope! We have advanced quite a bit in technology since then, but errors are just as possible today as they were then! What do we want to see over the next few days (besides the obvious model changes) To me: Speed of the wave The confluence in NE Where the wave comes on shore out west Strength of the storm A million others I am certain, but these are the very first things I look at when the model shows the energy hitting the west coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ok. Here’s the runs that turn this thing around. 18z. Grab your shots. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I remember a few things about this storm. The first was how convinced I was it was going to go south, and second how the forecast started to really change in our favor as we got closer. The last was DT's comment that there was "no reason why this will not go north" and it opened the door to the historic storm.. and it was a good cold snow! My hopes are becoming less and less for this to turn favorable, but there is hope! We have advanced quite a bit in technology since then, but errors are just as possible today as they were then! What do we want to see over the next few days (besides the obvious model changes) To me: Speed of the wave The confluence in NE Where the wave comes on shore out west Strength of the storm A million others I am certain, but these are the very first things I look at when the model shows the energy hitting the west coast DT is never wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: DT is never wrong Haven't been following him that long then. He hugs the Euro to fault and when that goes down he follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: DT is never wrong He did not say that until all models (including his beloved Euro) had it come north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok. Here’s the runs that turn this thing around. 18z. Grab your shots. I do not like it so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Starting to get more excited about Wednesday than the weekend! All IMBY watching! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Starting to get more excited about Wednesday than the weekend! All IMBY watching! LOL! You enjoy your flurries. I’m waiting for the big daddy. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: DT is never wrong You funny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Actually like some of the things I am seeing at 102 on the latest GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I do not like it so far! The energy came onshore in the west pretty far south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I do not like it so far! I don’t see anything wrong with it so far. Might end up a little better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Actually like some of the things I am seeing at 102 on the latest GFS run. Same. Let’s see if it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I do not like it so far! I do...way less suppressive look in the NS at 108. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Actually like some of the things I am seeing at 102 on the latest GFS run. The high is getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The NS sw is a bit further east through 108...sharper trough in the SS sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Low should come north of its previous runs on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 MUCH better at H5. Let’s see what she’ll do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I do...way less suppressive look in the NS at 108. 12z Was horrid so any model run will be better lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 MUCH better at H5. Let’s see what she’ll doIt looks very different. Look at the NS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Don't like the slower part but def like the ns part. Will be north of 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 If the s/w above it can drop in.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: MUCH better at H5. Let’s see what she’ll do What's better about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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