LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Stronger SS vort through 102. Heights a little lower along the East coast. (GFS 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yeah, this is a key feature to hone in on if I'm interpreting things right...even a tiny adjustment would work... Exactly...that is the only thing wrong with the setup in terms of track. Get that out of the way a little bit and we would be good. Temps are always a concern this early, but get a storm first then I will worry about temperatures. I dont care what the temperature is if I am smoking cirrus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS looks to have slowed down the northern stream energy at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Still early, but through 102, the troublesome northern stream s/w is WAY weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This. Can't worry about the details if the storm track takes ya completely out of the game. 500/700 looks flatter at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS looks to have slowed down the northern stream energy at 102. yea not sure I like that...it would have to slow that down A LOT to get it behind the system... I was thinking speed it up or lift it north would be our better options... dripping in behind is ok, or out of the way ahead is ok...right in on top or just in front is no good... but as wxusaf points out its weaker too which also factors into the equation... either way we basically just need it to be wrong in one way or another to a decent margin but that isnt a big ask for a northern stream vort at this range. Its basically in the worst possible spot right now so any change is good kinda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 that nrn stream wave is going to screw us again on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Through 123, the NS Vort that enters near the UP of Mich. is further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: that nrn stream wave is going to screw us again on this run. yep. So far things are looking a little south, but money panels still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yep. So far things are looking a little south, but money panels still to come. I hope I'm wrong so I can bump troll myself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: that nrn stream wave is going to screw us again on this run. looks like it to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I hope I'm wrong so I can bump troll myself. so do i.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker. But maybe a phase pulls it north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker. But maybe a phase pulls it north? That's what I'm hoping on now. Forget that Nrn stream nonsense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: That's what I'm hoping on now. Forget that Nrn stream nonsense now. lol...well then the 126hr panel appeared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker. But maybe a phase pulls it north? Yeah 6z was closed at H5 in southern MZ, 12z is open and further south through 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 IMO 50/50 is party spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 NOPE! South is goes! This is slowly becoming apparent! We are not where that thing is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 gfs looks pretty crappy to me. That's my in depth analysis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Out to 144. Not a drop of ANYTHING even makes it into VA. The Smokies get smoked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Weaker because the NS is pressing down on the southern sw...no? Has no room to amplify and gets squashed/sheared a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Nothing north of the NC/VA border through 147....Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker. But maybe a phase pulls it north? I dunno I still see that northern stream system diving in on top at the worst possible time... and the heights are even more suppressive this run over the northeast. The STJ is also weaker lol and I have no idea which is the "bigger" problem but I still didnt love the northern stream look either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE. I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider. To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol...well then the 126hr panel appeared... Dead ratter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 the beta GFS will save us but we lost the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC will keep false hope alive so that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I dunno I still see that northern stream system diving in on top at the worst possible time... and the heights are even more suppressive this run over the northeast. The STJ is also weaker lol and I have no idea which is the "bigger" problem but I still didnt love the northern stream look either. I was looking at the shortwave that ends up over NE at just the wrong time and it was definitely weaker earlier in the run and then strengthened just at the wrong time. Similar issue is that piece of the TPV/50-50 low is closed off and sitting in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Wasn't that far south before, which increases the confluence/suppression, etc. Combine that with a weaker southern s/w that doesn't phase at all and = poop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE. There have been some good improvements out west but that wasn't the problem to begin with. That isn't going to matter if what you circled in the northeast is there. Look at that wall!!! That has to relax, speed up, lift...anything or we are toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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