yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Lol 994mb SLP just off HSE at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 There is cold air to the NE but departing. Timed properly drawing on a NE flow would be colder where it mattered. Details to be hammered out over the next 6 days. Saw what I needed to see anyway :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Stacked slp creating its own cold pool on the W and NW flank. More UL energy diving into back and storm stalled. Classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'll take that low placement any winter! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Precip distribution is weird... A 993mb low just off VA Beach and flurries in Baltimore. Track looks nice though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'll take that low placement any winter! Need someone to mention early December SSTs now and ruin our fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It's close by... 00z EURO snowmap... much better than the past few EURO runs... but it's due to a phase job this go around as to why it came north for us I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Having everything (except for the gfs op) drastically NW of the Euro 12z run was a bit of a red flag. C NC to C VA the big winners this run. NC/SC boarder winners at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Definitely a marginal setup but potential is there still....strong 500mb signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We're in a great spot with lots of wiggle room that will continue through mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS should be fun to see and wake up to later this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We're in a great spot with lots of wiggle room that will continue through mid week. Agreed. Places from the Carolinas up thru part of S NE all very much "in the game". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. Places from the Carolinas up thru part of S NE all very much "in the game". Not so much sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Having everything (except for the gfs op) drastically NW of the Euro 12z run was a bit of a red flag. C NC to C VA the big winners this run. NC/SC boarder winners at 12z. Need to forget the GFS Op so far out. Its terrible outside of 84-90 hrs. Move on to the new FV3 my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not so much sne Wouldn't say never on this one. Compare this run to last nights 0z. Slp over Bermuda vs Slp East of Cape Cod. A phasing system changes the entire potential N of the M/D line. Not there yet verbatim but with 6-7 days to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Day 7 UKIE precip and SLP location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Day 7 UKIE precip and SLP location I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 00z EPS Snowfall mean MUCH improved... went from 1.5 in DCA at 12z to 4.0 at 00z 00z EPS Control goes from nada at 12z to around 6 inches at 00z at DCA... more to the south and SW... sharp cutoff to north of DC Overall EPS members look good... few monster hits in the bunch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EPS Snowfall mean MUCH improved... went from 1.5 in DCA at 12z to 4.0 at 00z 00z EPS Control goes from nada at 12z to around 6 inches at 00z at DCA... more to the south and SW... sharp cutoff to north of DC Overall EPS members look good... few monster hits in the bunch Just started glancing over it myself. Liked what I saw just with the surface pressure means. Seeing weaker high pressures over top the storm. Slight shifting northwest (inside the 12Z track) of the low pressure with indications that it may be moving back towards a hybrid Miller A/B. Also seeing a stall off the coast of which I assume is the 500s catching up to it. Everything is still too far south for the DC/Balt crew but it is a definite move in the right direction. Will glance over the 500s shortly to see if they agree with my thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Its all good gentleman. 00z Euro moved north to our doorstep, FV3 8-12, CMS a general 10-14. These Gulf Lows seem to jog north in the end. At this point, it's all good..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Scud said: Its all good gentleman. 00z Euro moved north to our doorstep, FV3 8-12, CMS a general 10-14. Theses Gulf Lows seem to jog north in the end. At this point, it's all good..... It appears so. Next thing we will have to worry about is too far north. Throw that in the mix. But a good night and goodnight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster. So that's good I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster. So that's good I guess There was nothing good about that run in my opinion. same ol garbage from the GFS, has no clue where to go and what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yea 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster. So that's good I guess Yea, should settle down next 24 hrs. Prcip fields still extremely volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I like the quasi-Bermuda high that is keeping the lp from moving due east. I dont like how there isn't much hp to the N of the storm. Euro and looks like ukie are going to be relying mostly on dynamics to keep it cold enough for frozen outside of the mountains. Because the ULL is occluding down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: There was nothing good about that run in my opinion. same ol garbage from the GFS, has no clue where to go and what to do. Uh, compared to 0z, there was good trends. Meaning, we're not at the final solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Uh, compared to 0z, there was good trends. Meaning, we're not at the final solution yet. Exactly, and honestly I’d personally just look at the FV3, this old GFS will be obsolete soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster. So that's good I guess 6 days still. Looks solid to me. You know what’s happens if all guidance shows a hit. I feel pretty good about this and I never feel good..ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Exactly, and honestly I’d personally just look at the FV3, this old GFS will be obsolete soon. FV3 much more sure of its self then the old GFS. Dont get me wrong at 84 to 72 hrs before any storm its ok as a model but not this far out. Ensemble was good at 0z. and H5 did improve a bit. will see FV3 next if it holds this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6 days still. Looks solid to me. You know what’s happens if all guidance shows a hit. I feel pretty good about this and I never feel good..ever. Thought you went to sleep..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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