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WxUSAF

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Hmm at 168 I see hope. It's weaker and south of 12z att BUT...the h5 trough axis is a but further west with more ridging along the coast. Northern stream might be relaxing just enough to let this recover at the last minute. It's starting out worse but I see room for more latitude gain up the coast then 12z. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hmm at 168 I see hope. It's weaker and south of 12z att BUT...the h5 trough axis is a but further west with more ridging along the coast. Northern stream might be relaxing just enough to let this recover at the last minute. It's starting out worse but I see room for more latitude gain up the coast then 12z. 

wait till you see 192

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

WxBell has mixing getting into DC.

192.. Mixing line shifts east, surface shows moderate-heavy snow to DC, Mixing just slightly SE (like 10-20 miles SE)

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Ah, ok..the others had me thinking it was bad.   Or are you talking about up your way?

Dc barely mixes. Like a foot along 95. Close to 2 feet in central va. 15 in my yard 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok you guys are obviously ahead of me so I'll shut up with my bad analysis and let you take it away. 

*flag* False start--PSU 2 post penalty, repeat better analysis

Announcer: Wow Jim, PSU is gettin' a little jumpy--must mean he's starting to buy into this one!

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dc barely mixes. Like a foot along 95. Close to 2 feet in central va. 15 in my yard 

I need a map in the digital thread please lol

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Holy $&@&$ 

Yep the h5 left just enough room to let this pull up the coast after a weaker start. Perfect track. I wouldn't worry about this weird warm pocket in the mid levels. Frankly looks wrong. Even if it's right it's sleet after heavy snow. But i don't buy that kind of thing from this range. Not with that track. 

IMG_7865.thumb.PNG.a87ef51388fe889998f5cecd950118cc.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dc barely mixes. Like a foot along 95. Close to 2 feet in central va. 15 in my yard 

The euro has a weird mid level warm layer for a time. I doubt it's right. Could I see mixing for a time as low passes with that track year. Hell 96 went to sleet all the way to Dulles for a time. But in heavy banding I doubt it. Any minor warm layer would mix out so it's not like we would waste much accumulation. Obviously just speaking about "if" this track were accurate. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro has a weird mid level warm layer for a time. I doubt it's right. Could I see mixing for a time as low passes with that track year. Hell 96 went to sleet all the way to Dulles for a time. But in heavy banding I doubt it. Any minor warm layer would mix out so it's not like we would waste much accumulation. Obviously just speaking about "if" this track were accurate. 

If we were inside of 4 days I would over analyze it. Gfs and euro are very similar now. Ens on board big time. Many of the necessary ingredients for a sig MA storm are in place. 

Northern stream stuff can be really hard to model beyond 4 days. If something is coming that will screw this up I would look there first.  So far so good but a lot of days to get through. 

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

*flag* False start--PSU 2 post penalty, repeat better analysis

Announcer: Wow Jim, PSU is gettin' a little jumpy--must mean he's starting to buy into this one!

Yea my analysis was a mess. I do buy this as a legit threat. I have for several days now. It fits the pattern. It's looked good since it came into range on the very end of the ensembles. That doesn't mean it's going to happen for sure but I do think there is a high risk of a significant snow in the mid Atlantic. 

In fairness the run did start out suppressed. Through 144 compare it to the past 2 runs and it's south and weaker with a stronger high on top and more confluence. 

Then even at 168 it's a weaker system down in Georgia but the trough axis is further west which allows enough ridging to pop along the coast and the northern stream gets out of the way just in time for the system to gain latitude and go to town. It was a late save. But that's almost perfect for what we want.

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