powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not to beat a dead horse But as others said, That's too low. lol it's true, but man nothing gets folks posting like a too low snow map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I was just thinking. It was about this timing in Novie 1995 that the first latitude dependent mix bag event laid down about 3-5" with sleet crusted along Rt poop. That marked the end of bear ground until the holocaust thaw of late January 1996.. But, that 1995 late autumn was the last time I recall (oh I'm sure there's been others..) a bona fide early, hard neggie NAO to close out a Novie - and it stuck through Dec...seemingly returning there as a baseline. Not sure what the other indices were doing that year/season ...PNA/EPO... N. Pac etc.. but I recall the NAO was neutral negative oscillator which probably did help along correction event repetition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just thinking. It was about this timing in Novie 1995 that the first latitude dependent mix bag event laid down about 3-5" with sleet crusted along Rt poop. That marked the end of bear ground until the holocaust thaw of late January 1996.. But, that 1995 late autumn was the last time I recall (oh I'm sure there's been others..) a bona fide early, hard neggie NAO to close out a Novie - and it stuck through Dec...seemingly returning there as a baseline. Not sure what the other indices were doing that year/season ...PNA/EPO... N. Pac etc.. but I recall the NAO was neutral negative oscillator which probably did help along correction event repetition. I remember it....I think this one maybe a bit more substantial when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can anyone throw up a Euro snow map? After like 4 pages of talking about snow maps being too high (or even too low)... needs it anyway, snow maps are like a junkie getting a fix. Sounds like MPM didn't get his fix this run either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember it....I think this one maybe a bit more substantial when all is said and done. yeah, agreed... I was just commenting 'in principle' re back whence. But that year ...I distinctly recall having a feeling it was no turning back...I got that same vibe. Then, I look at these present index progs descending the AO to -3 SD along with a -2 and change NAO ...and forgetting their down there... you know? interesting. That year was ENSO neutral (homage to our other conversation)... I think? I can find that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Euro QPF. Reduction in NNE but nothing that really matters because the banding signature is still there. For the NNE crowd wherever that 500-700mb band sets up will be the winner regardless of QPF output. Should be good snow growth up at that height too, well above any warm tongue that might try to ride up and cause snow growth issues. SNE is just all thermal profiles but man at the rate it precips at, even 1-2 hours more of snow could be another 2-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The non-GFS models are pretty bullish for Boston to see 3"+. At least away from the immediate water. This could def be a storm where Logan out in Boston harbor gets like 1.7" of slop and back bay and Fenway are in the 3-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I’ve been thinking 3-6, 4-8 max, but now I’m thinking 6-12 in the areas just north of the changeover. That’s is a pretty good Qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah that 4-6" instead of 6-8" will probably get me to jump off the ledge, You won't have any temp issues, But thanks for bringing your QPF woes with you from Mass............. 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love how he assuages a disproportionate amount of tragic grief with obs "FML, its not going to snow, whoa is me, need to move east, where is my pistol, so that I can swallow it!!" 26* LOL to both. Just took the dog for a walk at the dog park. It's a little nipply out there--need to get adjusted to winter. Down to 24*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 You wonder if we put down 1-3” of sleet on top of 6” of snow. Man is that gonna be tough to move around . Would lock in a long extended pack too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You wonder if we put down 1-3” of sleet on top of 6” of snow. Man is that gonna be tough to move around . Would lock in a long extended pack too I wonder if too many TH'es have gone to your noggin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Thinking about 3-6" north and west of HVN... 1-3" for SE CT except <1 immediate shore from Old Lyme east. Can't ignore the colder trends and seems like the 3km NAM is an outlier with it's warm pockets compared to models like the ECMWF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 GYX going deep and long on both accumulations and taint. Thursday Night Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Rain and snow before 2pm, then rain likely between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: GYX going deep and long on both accumulations and taint. Thursday Night Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Rain and snow before 2pm, then rain likely between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Taintless Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 yeah ...good luck with the Euro being wrong two days before an event ... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Thinking about 3-6" north and west of HVN... 1-3" for SE CT except <1 immediate shore from Old Lyme east. Can't ignore the colder trends and seems like the 3km NAM is an outlier with it's warm pockets compared to models like the ECMWF. 12z EPS says that will be low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EPS says that will be low Could be - though I think we've got the sleet problem where sleet is included in the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Could be - though I think we've got the sleet problem where sleet is included in the total. Weenies love their algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Taintless Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Congrats! I'll be keeping you posted in the obs thread of how much taint I get. 23* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Weenies love their algorithms. I feel better up here about the 3-6... I feel like SW CT is the wild card but I see no reason why they can't thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Congrats! I'll be keeping you posted in the obs thread of how much taint I get. 23* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I feel better up here about the 3-6... I feel like SW CT is the wild card but I see no reason why they can't thump. I think that’s reasonable given all the caveats we mentioned. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Feeling good for my area. Cold air will be firmly entrenched for a while, far enough up and in, good qpf... Need to hold off the warm tongue for as long as possible. 3-5", maybe 4-6" with a crust of sleet before the rain comes in for a bit I do think pingers get in faster than I would like, but that's ok. Euro is bullish. That's all I need to know. A Friday snow day would be nice, although it is awfully early in the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z Nam a few tics NW and amped up from its 12z run @ hr 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 18z Nam a few tics NW and amped up from its 12z run @ hr 29. Nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice look. Gone wild this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice look. Lol, 3-5" of paste at BOS on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Soundings cooled a bit too at 03z tomorrow night vs 12z run. A little more wiggle room in the pike region. It had ORH at like -0.3C in the warm layer but now it is -1.0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, agreed... I was just commenting 'in principle' re back whence. But that year ...I distinctly recall having a feeling it was no turning back...I got that same vibe. Then, I look at these present index progs descending the AO to -3 SD along with a -2 and change NAO ...and forgetting their down there... you know? interesting. That year was ENSO neutral (homage to our other conversation)... I think? I can find that - Weak la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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