Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Frontogen is gonna be sick if that mid level translates like that... wow - I mean, if ur marginal in your thicknessess and that passes under your latitude ... that's bore a hole in lower troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Snows to Maines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is basically 3 days out...Ryan is saying this time Thursday evening. So is the Euro running its 18z and 6z runs like was talked about a couple months back??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is basically 3 days out...Ryan is saying this time Thursday evening. So is the Euro running its 18z and 6z runs like was talked about a couple months back??? Yes, Low is still over the delmarva at hr 90 on the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 No comments on them?? Or is 18z not out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: No comments on them?? Or is 18z not out yet? Read above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Yeah PF, that was more for the algorithm. However it’s done, take with a grain of salt on TT for time being. All these stupid maps are so terrible. We advance the science and these just being it back to 1975. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No comments on them?? Or is 18z not out yet? It only goes out to 90 hours at 6z and 18z. But it still looks good here for snow tonight and tomorrow, as most on here were probably wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I would think most on here don't need a clown map to figure out their snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It only goes out to 90 hours at 6z and 18z. But it still looks good here for snow tonight and tomorrow, as most on here were probably wondering. Probably not in this thread............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Probably not in this thread............... Or any thread ... wish more could get in on it for the increase in discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: Read above Oh, when I posted my post..your post just said “yes” at that point lol. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z Euro has sort of a weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Ah yeah it was just producing some ridiculous totals that didn't even seem to match QPF earlier this week. It was saying 10:1 but the QPF maps didn't even seem to line up on TT with these totals. These are some sample runs from this week... Guess the moral is take the FV3 maps with a grain of salt. I’d just be hesitant to blame the FV3 for it. I’m going to assume the model estimates its own ptype now and it defnitely wasn’t showing snow in SC while Cowan’s algorithm had it dropping 11” there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’d just be hesitant to blame the FV3 for it. I’m going to assume the model estimates its own ptype now and it defnitely wasn’t showing snow in SC while Cowan’s algorithm had it dropping 11” there. It was giving the cape snow lol. I think it was just the algorithm....whoever and wherever it was created. That’s why we have soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I wish on Maue's site you could hover over to see values. Sort of tough to see but on the 18z Euro looks like 850's are still marginal? Also, anyone think H7 temps may be a little marginal as well? Was only seeing like -4 or -5? Thinking we could see a nice little thump of wintry stuff down this way on the onset (hopefully dry air won't be a problem), but probably quickly change over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was giving the cape snow lol. I think it was just the algorithm....whoever and wherever it was created. That’s why we have soundings. I googled clown map and got this. idk wtf it is, but I’m pretty sure it applies here too. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Jimmy get arrested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jimmy get arrested? Lockdown in Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah PF, that was more for the algorithm. However it’s done, take with a grain of salt on TT for time being. All these stupid maps are so terrible. We advance the science and these just being it back to 1975. Finished outlook....out with the long range, in with the medium. I may steal something here the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 18z Euro has sort of a weird look. You can’t post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would think most on here don't need a clown map to figure out their snow totals. Front end, interior thumper, seasonality in play, I would say upper elevations in W SNE good for 3-4" before freezing drizzle and deep interior lower elevations good for 1-2" before we wet. Either way it looks like winter cometh this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Front end, interior thumper, seasonality in play, I would say upper elevations in W SNE good for 3-4" before freezing drizzle and deep interior lower elevations good for 1-2" before we wet. Either way it looks like winter cometh this week. And may not be leaving................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: You can’t post it? A little fyi regarding the ECMWF images... https://www.weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fecmwf-guidelines We may go back to blocking all EC images again from pay sites. If people want to share something they can take on their own risk by posting it to their own social media account and posting the social media link here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Front end, interior thumper, seasonality in play, I would say upper elevations in W SNE good for 3-4" before freezing drizzle and deep interior lower elevations good for 1-2" before we wet. Either way it looks like winter cometh this week. Your coming around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: And may not be leaving................ Our cosmic, hilltown yeti wood guy dropped by today to tell me he was dropping another cord tomorrow and to pay him "whenever". He said he "had a hunch we'd need it". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your coming around It's easy to be fragile in these parts. I have a good feeling about WNE this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Have been offline for most of non-winter so missed this... what's the deal with 6z/18z Euro? Is it run off 0z/12z data? Are 6z/18z runs less reliable than 0z/12z runs similar to NAM/GFS are? More data sometimes can confuse more than it clarifies, so curious how this will contribute this winter. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Have been offline for most of non-winter so missed this... what's the deal with 6z/18z Euro? Is it run off 0z/12z data? Are 6z/18z runs less reliable than 0z/12z runs similar to NAM/GFS are? More data sometimes can confuse more than it clarifies, so curious how this will contribute this winter. TIA The 00/12z runs of the GFS verify with a better score than the 6/18z runs, but it’s so miniscule now that being 6hrs closer to verification gives the off-hour runs more skill over the previous 00z or 12z run. I’d assume it’s a similar deal with the euro. All of the runs get new surface and upper air satellite data. The only thing missing are the actual radiosondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looks like the entire northeast is about to get NAM'd thru 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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