MJO812 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Gfs is also colder and further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Dews below zero on the GFS that's a fridged airmass in front of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Problem is aloft though. This run is colder, but beware these srn ULL ejecting out from the Deep South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I would buy something like what the Canadian has. Might not be right, but it all depends on what that ULL will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 GYX is feeling a little bullish this morning. Have brought the rain/snow line farther south, which would result in higher snowfall totals to the coast. As far as totals, deterministic runs are much higher than ensemble means. But some areas will get double digit snowfall towards the mountains at least. The system moves out quickly Friday night. 25* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looks warm on the euro now. More like Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks warm on the euro now. More like Canadian. Yup. GFS or bust. Are you able to see more than 24-hour intervals on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 euro is nice for the resorts. Nov as it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 EPS continues increasing likelihood of first accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 EPS is warm too. The onset is snow or mix, but would be brief in SNE. Just not quite our time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 A sloppy inch would seem possible for a bunch away from the coast. Then it rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A sloppy inch would seem possible for a bunch away from the coast. Then it rains Wasted cold for many in the preceding 36 hours. Managed 22* last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wasted cold for many in the preceding 36 hours. Managed 22* last night. LOL it’s mid November. The fact that NNE is getting into mid winter form is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Hmm ... perhaps a little intriguing as an analog. I wonder if that is > 50% ...all mass-fields considering. There are differences ... such as that +PNA -typology closed vortex off California in the right image ... not existing in the left. But, the open/potent wave moving up and over lingering west-Atlantic subtropical ridge, with at least latent ridge projection situated at similar longitudes (otherwise) out west, are in total bearing some resemblance back to Dec 9, 2005 This is 96 hrs lead in the oper. GFS on the left, off the 06z cycle. The 00z bore some similarities as well, but the vort trajectory was slightly farther west. Just something to mull over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Yup. GFS or bust. Are you able to see more than 24-hour intervals on the EPS? Euro is the warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Anyone notice that the new GFS was later to the party with the storm on Thursday than the old/current one was? I think every other model had the storm in some form or another before hand. That doesn't seem to bode well going into the winter season if the FV3 ends up taking over at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Most models seem to still be warming mid-levels pretty quickly. Slopping coating to brief IP then rain. Honestly, in that scenario I would prefer straight rain this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I'm not ready for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Threat end of the week looks legit, "for someone", so if anyone wants to create a thread for it, have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Threat end of the week looks legit, "for someone", so if anyone wants to create a thread for it, have at it. Ineedweenies has been chasing snow on gfs op runs since August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Any ice chances?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 First accumulating snow for many. West is best in SNE. A quick thumper the dumper before mid levels rise. With the low tracking close to the coast should be quite the snow storm in CNNE . Would like to see the Euro cool off at 12Z for more significant snows further south than Gene Banks hood. Still time for this to be more interesting for inland SNE. East coastal areas probably least chance of accumulation but I wouldn't be surprised if even they coat the ground. Great bases building for all you skiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Any ice chances?! Probably just a period of sleet for some. I think surface temps probably come up above freezing pretty quickly once the mid-levels torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Could be a nice little event tomorrow morning before any mixing. Advisories posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12z NAM coming in a bit colder. We'll have to see what today's trends bring before we can think about Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z NAM coming in a bit colder. We'll have to see what today's trends bring before we can think about Friday. Could be similar to last event. Maybe even a bit better for the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Late week will have a defined ccb for nne which will help some further south spots tickle flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 We’re getting there. Remember the date. And the start of December should not be warm. It’s coming and on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Yikes on GFS! Decent front ender to the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 We are def gonna drop a few inches of snow Thursday night before change to sleet and rain early Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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