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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow isotherm calling for a good winter

When he’s on board, pretty much feel like this is a wrap. Was waiting for his views. He cooroborates most forecast out there and while February seems pretty universal as a cold/snow month, I am more interested in his December call. Much to love here. 

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25 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Isotherm’s winter forecast is out on main thread. 

I would love for his forecast to verify, it's been a while since we had a great December. 

Almost unanimous agreement that February will rock. Dec-Jan are the toss-ups, forecasters either have Dec cold and snowy or January but not both. 

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Big shift on the EPS to much stronger Scandinavian blocking day 6-10. It has near record November 500 mb heights . This turns the NAO more negative with the colder trough remaining in place over the Eastern US. The -EPO is also forecast to continue longer than just 3 days ago.

New run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8.thumb.png.b7072f62382237b9d6e07cab92c8cc37.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.271c11636310b64cda0c36b23e194b69.png

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big shift on the EPS to much stronger Scandinavian blocking day 6-10. It has near record November 500 mb heights . This turns the NAO more negative with the colder trough remaining in place over the Eastern US. The -EPO is also forecast to continue longer than just 3 days ago.

New run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8.thumb.png.b7072f62382237b9d6e07cab92c8cc37.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.271c11636310b64cda0c36b23e194b69.png

 

November's of Scandinavian ridge dominance and the following Jan-Feb 

5a.png

5b.png

December 

5c.png.c25f5feb3820777e488001c5d6ddeef7.png

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big shift on the EPS to much stronger Scandinavian blocking day 6-10. It has near record November 500 mb heights . This turns the NAO more negative with the colder trough remaining in place over the Eastern US. The -EPO is also forecast to continue longer than just 3 days ago.

Models are playing catch-up in the opposite direction now. If that Scandinavian blocking gets any more widespread then it would really temper the late November warm-up. 

They've also been too quick to break down the western/Alaskan ridging. 

It's not out of the realm of possibility that November ends up BN despite the record warm start. 

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4 hours ago, bkviking said:

When he’s on board, pretty much feel like this is a wrap. Was waiting for his views. He cooroborates most forecast out there and while February seems pretty universal as a cold/snow month, I am more interested in his December call. Much to love here. 

Thanks very much for the nice compliment. :)

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22 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Thanks very much for the nice compliment. :)

Hey, it’s well deserved. I may lay low the past decade(s)  (WWBB, Eastern) but am quite an astute observer and for years pay particular attention to your forecasts . Ultimately they are the best. Been around long enough to know how important  your point of view is to any thoughtful prediction of seasonal forecasts. 

Kudos, as it is deserved as usual 

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would match the colder November and December risks that we typically see with a La Nina. The SOI has been positive since October as the ENSO regions have warmed to El Nino levels. A delayed coupling between the ocean and atmosphere would produce more of a back end El Nino with colder risks in February and perhaps March. So it could be a best of both worlds type of winter. Front end cold La Nina and back end cold El Nino.

It's been a long time since we have had a wire to wire winter. 

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