Cfa Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 5 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: About 10 years ago driving through NW Jersey I hit a 50°(car thermo) snow squall. Temp dropped like 10° instantly. Pretty cool stuff. That sounds cool. I’m not big on snow but random squalls such as those are always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 37 here as well, first freeze highly likely tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 New York City may flirt with its first 32° reading this season tonight. The 18z GFS MOS forecasts a low of 32° tomorrow morning. Should the temperature reach freezing, 2018 would register its second earliest first freeze during the last five years. First Freeze Dates: 2013: November 12: 31° 2014: November 18: 24° 2015: November 24: 32° 2016: December 9: 29° 2017: November 10: 25° The next 7-14 days will likely feature generally below normal readings. As a result, the probability that November will actually wind up cooler than normal on average despite the 16th warmest first week on record, has increased. The implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance are as follows: Below Normal: 55% Below 47°: 49% 48° or above: 42% Estimated range: 45.8° - 48.5° During the cold stretch, there is a small possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall. It very likely wouldn't amount to much, but some EPS members hint at it. Afterward, the guidance leans toward a warmup during the last week of the month. The possibility that the cold gives way to warmer than normal temperatures would fit the outcome that followed the cold second half of October. In terms of precipitation, New York City's annual precipitation has now increased to 53.79". That ties 2018 with 2014 as New York City's 20th wettest years on record. Around the region, total precipitation amounts include: Allentown: 56.33" (5th wettest year) Atlantic City: 54.40" (5th wettest year) Bridgeport: 49.51" (9th wettest year) Islip: 51.84" (14th wettest year) New York City: 53.79" (20th wettest year) Newark: 46.90" (29th wettest year) Philadelphia: 49.70" (14th wettest year) Poughkeepsie: 48.64" (11th wettest year) In addition, Baltimore, Charleston (WV), and Reading are within 3" or less of their annual precipitation records. Late Monday night into Tuesday could see another potent storm bring a 0.50" to 1.50" rain from Philadelpia to Boston. Areas south and east of these cities would likely see the higher amounts. Based on both the historical (1869-2017) and recent (1971-2017) data for the 11/11-12/31 period, the implied probabilities for New York City's total 2018 rainfall are: 55.00" or more: Historical: 98%; 1971-2017: 98% 60.00" or more: Historical: 44%; 1971-2017: 56% 65.00" or more: Historical: 1%; 1971-2017: 4% Least 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 1.39", 1939 Most 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 14.99", 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 34 here. Lowest of the early season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Next weekend looks very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Current temp down to 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 35 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Temp now down to 31 here, coldest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 33 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 27....I've been below freezing since 9:00..once the wind died down the temps plummeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 31° here...Been pretty steady since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 6/7degs. BN. 34 at 6am. here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Current temp 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Euro is interesting for the interior this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 10 hours ago, Cfa said: 37 here as well, first freeze highly likely tonight. No freeze. Currently 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 First 20s of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, Cfa said: No freeze. Currently 34. ...i'm @ 31.9*..KFOK @ 34*..gabreski got down to 26* @ 5am..less wind today will make it easier to bag some leaves..but will hold off another week..still not 100% down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Cfa said: No freeze. Currently 34. Got down to 31 here. NWS was on the money with central park just missing 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Check out the move on the EPS to a much stronger Scandinavian Block for later in November. If this can build far enough west, then we may be talking about a -NAO developing around that time. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 2 hours ago, tim said: ...i'm @ 31.9*..KFOK @ 34*..gabreski got down to 26* @ 5am..less wind today will make it easier to bag some leaves..but will hold off another week..still not 100% down. My low was 32.5° at around 2:30 AM, temp started slowly rising afterwards. And KFOK never ceases to amaze me. 56 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Got down to 31 here. NWS was on the money with central park just missing 32 I’m surprised they didn’t issue at least a freeze watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Latest tellies from cpc have the NAO and AO dropping towards negative late month and PNA rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 We got down to 33 f here in borough park Brooklyn for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Euro is interesting for the interior this week. My Holly Nws is calling for our another bonafide rainstorm. what did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Animal said: My Holly Nws is calling for our another bonafide rainstorm. what did it show? We have to see how much cold air is available when the storm comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 you weenies should be more excited about the deep snowcover building in eastern canada w/ these systems. that will be an important source of low level cold air once we get into the nino-favored part of late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 "Waiting !Patiently!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Isotherm’s winter forecast is out on main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Wow isotherm calling for a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow isotherm calling for a good winter When he’s on board, pretty much feel like this is a wrap. Was waiting for his views. He cooroborates most forecast out there and while February seems pretty universal as a cold/snow month, I am more interested in his December call. Much to love here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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