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Hurricane Michael


Solak
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SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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From NHC:

It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to
50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation
over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a
result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this
area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across
portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this
evening and tonight.
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4.10 today 1.18'' yesterday = 5.28'' for me,power back on now.

Terrible forecasting by local mets downplaying this wind threat,claiming no big wind and a rain event.Yep we got almost 400,000 in NC without power and it's still growing.

A 990low moving 23 mph with a decent cold front behind it is gonna cause some wind,come on people.HRRR showed the threat 24 hours ago and the only people discussing it was in here.

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Sounds about right. When the center passed over me earlier this afternoon my barometer dropped to 29.21. 

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1 minute ago, ander420 said:

We just had about 12-15 minutes of some seriously gusty winds and an increase in rain.  It has now passed and is raining gently again and trees barely moving in Durham.

That was a thunderstorm you probably are not done....velocity scans show serious wind close to the ground over you, that band of rain just west of you will get that to the surface as well....should pick back up in 15-30 mins or less....

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17 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

4.10 today 1.18'' yesterday = 5.28'' for me,power back on now.

Terrible forecasting by local mets downplaying this wind threat,claiming no big wind and a rain event.Yep we got almost 400,000 in NC without power and it's still growing.

A 990low moving 23 mph with a decent cold front behind it is gonna cause some wind,come on people.HRRR showed the threat 24 hours ago and the only people discussing it was in here.

up to 450,000 now. ...up 50,000 just in the past half hour or so. 

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Folks I was not a believer in the call for widespread heavy wind advisories.  Quite honestly, we've been through many tropical events that just pass us by in the triad and rarely if ever see more than a gusty day.  Outside of Hugo, there was nothing that set a precedent for this and in the end, I still think the discretionary alerts were the way to go.  I saw a post from Mack earlier that said his winds were unimpressive.  So the call was right for his area.  We were surprised here in the triad for about 45 minutes, but it was over a swath of maybe 20-30 miles at most.  How do you forecast that??  

I'm sure I'll stir up a hornets nest, not my intention, but I cant bash the mets here.  It was an impossible call.

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12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Folks I was not a believer in the call for widespread heavy wind advisories.  Quite honestly, we've been through many tropical events that just pass us by in the triad and rarely if ever see more than a gusty day.  Outside of Hugo, there was nothing that set a precedent for this and in the end, I still think the discretionary alerts were the way to go.  I saw a post from Mack earlier that said his winds were unimpressive.  So the call was right for his area.  We were surprised here in the triad for about 45 minutes, but it was over a swath of maybe 20-30 miles at most.  How do you forecast that??  

I'm sure I'll stir up a hornets nest, not my intention, but I cant bash the mets here.  It was an impossible call.

Agreed but places like GSP at least mentioned there was uncertainty and models showing more winds and a deform band which is why they issued advisories. I think that was perfect.  And almost 500,000 people without power and growing isn’t 20-30 mile swath.  The whole viewing area has basically been hit and models showed it strengthening after getting to NC so GSP where Mack is was never part of the high wind discussions.

Many local Mets though were adamant that we would top out at 30-35 gusts and said this was just going to be a rainy day.  Exact words from one.  Those are the issues.  At least throw it out there that there’s uncertainty and it’s impossible to accurately forecast and areas could potentially see higher gusts.  But to tell people you will be fine if you are fine to drive in the rain is a different story that almost half a million people and growing would obviously disagree with.  

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A gauge at Public Works in Danville reported 6.75 of rain in less than 2 hours.. Terrible flash flooding..

 

The Sandy River has crested at its all time level surpassing Fran in 96.

The Dan River went from 8 feet to 23.5 in 3 hours and is forecasted to crest at a record 29 feet.. 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power....

Still here, and still have power, for now.

Which is good, because we have dinner in the oven, and about 30 minutes left on the timer :wacko:

 

Anyway, it's starting to pick up here after the nice, long lull. But not much rain again yet, and the real show still hasn't hit.

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Friends and coworkers in Southpoint say they are out of power, but doing fine north of I-70 in east Durham (I need to update my board location). We got a couple of big gusts and that's been it so far. Well, and 3" of rain today IMBY.

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