ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I warned everyone it would be , too - Yeah you actually nailed the lower level aspect of this synoptic setup. I wasn't paying very close attention but I saw a lot of talk of 70s and 80s with high dews but it appears we are only going to get one day of that all week....today (assuming we can break out effectively). We do get another shot at this next week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Hey Tip, As a n00b, when would these intuitions of yours start showing up on models? It did show up in the models off and on. Spanning last week, many runs were indicating high pressure draped from SE Canada ...east thru the lower Maritimes - that never ends well for warm weather enthusiasts... That's one - but I feel the warm panache of redder colored heights was distracting people from those off-on model appeals. Two, it's been verifying for the past month where we end up with days like yesterday because that tendency to verify N/NE flows of near saturated air in the lower levels... I've been writing about it for awhile, how the westerlies across southern Canada have become more gradient oriented, and that means more wind mechanics (btw)... which parlays favorably to more confluence and high pressures.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you actually nailed the lower level aspect of this synoptic setup. I wasn't paying very close attention but I saw a lot of talk of 70s and 80s with high dews but it appears we are only going to get one day of that all week....today (assuming we can break out effectively). We do get another shot at this next week though. right and/but as I was just saying to "lurkerboy" - which is kind of a creepy alias by the way - I'm also allowing for the other shoe to fall on that 'warm up' also. but blah blah...we get it. If it gets to 84 ... it gets to 84... I'm not saying it won't and to be fair, this time the signal is there that despite climate and persistence ... it's trying to fend off those low level undercuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: right and/but as I was just saying to "lurkerboy" - which is kind of creepy alias by the way - I'm also allowing for the other shoe to fall on that 'warm up' also. but blah blah...we get it - The euro has been keeping that sfc boundary closer to us compared to that crazy warm run it had a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The euro has been keeping that sfc boundary closer to us compared to that crazy warm run it had a couple days ago. yeah ..I don't know. My experience in the last 30 years of being Meteorologically sentient and cognizant is that IF there is our geography and the phrase "sfc boundary" anywhere within a light-year of daily lexicon... said sfc boundary WILL be about 1,000 miles S of where-ever said lexicon assumes it will be. You wanna look you're gifted with this schit? ...don't forget that, period. Hyperbole of course but it's a frustration that's too annoying to forget. We'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ..I don't know. My experience in the last 30 years of being Meteorologically sentient and cognizant is that IF there is our geography and the phrase "sfc boundary" anywhere within a light-year of daily lexicon... said sfc boundary WILL be about 1,000 miles S of where-ever said lexicon assumes it will be. yup...I'm probably leaning 1-2 warm sector days in there, but some measly fart of a s/w will be just enough to push a weak sfc cold front through here. Then we'll "try" to warm sector again just to get more raw, overrunning fecal mank. I kinda wish we could get a series of bonafide cP airmasses in here from the W/NW instead of these backdoor sfc highs wedging in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: yup...I'm probably leaning 1-2 warm sector days in there, but some measly fart of a s/w will be just enough to push a weak sfc cold front through here. Then we'll "try" to warm sector again just to get more raw, overrunning fecal mank. I kinda wish we could get a series of bonafide cP airmasses in here from the W/NW instead of these backdoor sfc highs wedging in. That's precisely what my other circle of Met buddies have been texting ... We're done man - lets blast this schit out once and for all with a good old fashioned autumn 45 mph overly-warned, high wind warning house cleaner pattern change. oy - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I warned everyone it would be , too - It's also why I'm not completely sold on the 'extremeness' of the warm up for next week - warm up? mmm, okay. The difference here is that there ridge is more coherent in the runs. Agreed. Also, there are cycles of model runs, ...sort of like last night's 00z, that show a bit more N placement of the front and less lower level invasion of high pressure undercutting said ridge. Other cycles have shown more of that undercut. ..back and forth. But, back and forth is more of a warm signal than that which led this week, which showed warm heights, but the actual surface pressure pattern was clearly draping early season polar highs immediately adjacent our latitudes to the N. It wasn't being considered enough by anyone. So, there's some plausibility there for next week's warm up that cannot be denied. However, I wouldn't be surprised either if there are N and/or BD type fronts persecuting SNE with cold seclusion while the 'pattern' around is way above normal looking. I do recall the posts that you made. As things stand right now it looks like a front may waver back and forth during next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 72.9F here, where are the 80's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Sneaky cold morning Sat AM for NNE. Frosty for some? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sneaky cold morning Sat AM for NNE. Frosty for some? We have had two already, Looking for the first freeze, Could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We have had two already, Looking for the first freeze, Could be close. MAV is 23/25/31 at BML/HIE/1P1 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: MAV is 23/25/31 at BML/HIE/1P1 respectively. They haven't seen a freeze yet up there? Northern Maine has a couple weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 58 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 72.9F here, where are the 80's? Mm, I understand the sentiment and [probably] who it is targeted ... however, to be fair, it's 73 to 75 with a fair amount of sun and above normal? I'd say making a call 7 days ahead for a warm afternoon deserves some credit - just not the full boat. Granted, ...the other days this week seem to have busted pretty atrociously.. .but just for today it gets a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 4 hours ago, dendrite said: Sneaky cold morning Sat AM for NNE. Frosty for some? Tomorrow morning looks patchy frost like too. At least the forecast grids have it in there... but Saturday looks more widespread clear/calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 3 hours ago, dryslot said: They haven't seen a freeze yet up there? Northern Maine has a couple weeks back. No they did. BML and HIE had a freeze when we had our 31F on the 9th of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 No they did. BML and HIE had a freeze when we had our 31F on the 9th of September. That would’ve really surprise me if they hadn’t had one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would’ve really surprise me if they hadn’t had one already. Sept 9th was first freeze for SLK, HIE, BML and MVL. But again, there haven't been a ton of chances. A few other 32-36F type mornings I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 8 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: I will do everything I can to lose my weenie tag and eventually add something to the forum. Sorry for being emotional. I love weather, and I love fall and winter, and when something you love doesn't seem like it's coming, it affects you. Sorry again. Looks like by the end of next week, we go into a more Autumn-like pattern. The torchiness modeled for Sunday-Wed looks pretty consistent...probably mid-upper 70s for 4 or 5 days. Tooooorrrch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 45 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Tomorrow morning looks patchy frost like too. At least the forecast grids have it in there... but Saturday looks more widespread clear/calm. So I shouldn’t be wearing shorts when I get off th plane at BTV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Warm temps fail this week. Next week looks seasonably warm to warm at times. I think after next week we start to flip to more sustained cooler weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Outdoor seating ftw at bar. Tooorrch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Is this really what has come out of all that inferno talk last week? Seems to be a pretty good fail for those thinking A/C would be needed in NNE, being as objective as possible it just hasn't been anything like was proposed by some leading into this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2018 Author Share Posted October 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Is this really what has come out of all that inferno talk last week? Seems to be a pretty good fail for those thinking A/C would be needed in NNE, being as objective as possible it just hasn't been anything like was proposed by some leading into this week. That was for next week mainly . We’ll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2018 Author Share Posted October 5, 2018 Fisher sees it.. gets it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 "If" and down to 3 days. What does the 18z euro have? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Sept 9th was first freeze for SLK, HIE, BML and MVL. But again, there haven't been a ton of chances. A few other 32-36F type mornings I think. We've had 2 freezes so far. 27 and 28, plus a couple of frosty mornings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Nice snowicane for eastern Maine on the FV3GFS at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fisher sees it.. gets it He had 80s for Boston this week . How did that work out for him ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, kdxken said: He had 80s for Boston this week . How did that work out for him ? Take the under on extended periods of warmth and dews. It’s October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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