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Damage In Tolland

Coldtober model and pattern disco

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As we close another torched, humid month of September and move onto what should be cold weather season.... models continue to warm and torch some of October. Let’s hope things start to look differently late month as we head towards late Autumn . 

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As we close another torched, humid month of September and move onto what should be cold weather season.... models continue to warm and torch much of October. Let’s hope things start to look differently late month as we head towards late Autumn . 

Autumn and winter will likely be extremely warm, this pattern is locked into place and there's no escape.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Autumn and winter will likely be extremely warm, this pattern is locked into place and there's no escape.

He got the TORCH pattern that he desired but now he's starting to realize that the pattern is likely going to linger for much of the fall and perhaps the winter.

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I certainly do not know where all this torch Autumn and Winter talk is coming from?

 

Last September Was very Warm....and I don not remember it having these cool days(like today, and Saturday and Sunday and Monday and Tuesday this week...and the nice cool weekend last week as well) mixed in with the warmth.  It's for sure been a Blazing Hot summer and incredibly Humid....but it was Summer after all.  And Autumn just arrived on Saturday night, and right on cue it cooled off very nicely.  Sure we're gonna have some more warm days, but prolonged extreme heat....right through the Autumn, I'd be skeptical on that one.  

 

I'm not worrying about a torch for the entire Autumn and into the winter.   Sure anything can happen for the winter season and we get skunked, but the signs are encouraging for at least an average winter at this juncture.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I certainly do not know where all this torch Autumn and Winter talk is coming from?

 

Last September Was very Warm....and I don not remember it having these cool days(like today, and Saturday and Sunday and Monday and Tuesday this week...and the nice cool weekend last week as well) mixed in with the warmth.  It's for sure been a Blazing Hot summer and incredibly Humid....but it was Summer after all.  And Autumn just arrived on Saturday night, and right on cue it cooled off very nicely.  Sure we're gonna have some more warm days, but prolonged extreme heat....right through the Autumn, I'd be skeptical on that one.  

 

I'm not worrying about a torch for the entire Autumn and into the winter.   Sure anything can happen for the winter season and we get skunked, but the signs are encouraging for at least an average winter at this juncture.  

Currently Sept is 2nd warmest on record for Boston. Think of what the trend has been for the last several months. Are there any sings of the pattern flipping to a cool/cold pattern for this time of year?

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Great Snow,  we go through this almost every year with you guys fretting over it not cooling off..... Relax, it's gonna cool off..it has this whole week pretty much.  So it warms up towards the end of next week...it's only early October after all.  

 

You can worry about the pattern not changing...in my opinion it has changed already....we've been comfortable for the last two weeks already since the blazing heat of a couple weeks ago.  So what if it averages a lil above normal for the months of October and November...there will be cool days mixed in..just like these last couple weeks...and every day that we move forward, climo is getting stronger on our side.  We're stepping down slowly...

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It’s just basically a trough west ridge east pattern. Canada remains cold and has been for weeks. If you took this look now, and added 3 months to it, I think many would be happy. 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Great Snow,  we go through this almost every year with you guys fretting over it not cooling off..... Relax, it's gonna cool off..it has this whole week pretty much.  So it warms up towards the end of next week...it's only early October after all.  

 

You can worry about the pattern not changing...in my opinion it has changed already....we've been comfortable for the last two weeks already since the blazing heat of a couple weeks ago.  So what if it averages a lil above normal for the months of October and November...there will be cool days mixed in..just like these last couple weeks...and every day that we move forward, climo is getting stronger on our side.  We're stepping down slowly...

Please point out where in my post that it seems like I am concerned, worried or fretting over the pattern. Why would I fret over the pattern?? I have no control over the pattern/weather so why would I fret over it???  I accept the  weather for what it is. To be honest I have more important things to be concerned about. My post merely stated the obvious, that the pattern has been a warm/hot one and that the pattern looks to continue..

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Yep, next week looking torched, I imagine after that it'll be cool for a few days then rocket back. I think that's been the pattern for the past 4 years on average, and the one we're stuck with. Have a nice balmy fall everyone

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As we close another torched, humid month of September and move onto what should be cold weather season.... models continue to warm and torch much of October. Let’s hope things start to look differently late month as we head towards late Autumn . 

No worries yet - if Novie stays warm, different story.  Small sample (20 years) but here's how snowfall has varied following AN/BN OCT & NOV, by percent of my current 90.0" average.  Numbers in parentheses are occurrences.

               OCT            NOV
AN          106% (10)    92% (10)
2+AN      125% (4)      94% (5)
4+ AN     117 (1)        106% (1) *

BN           94% (10)    108% (10)
2+ BN      78% (5)     115% (6)
4+ BN      75% (1)     113% (0**)

* That contrary season was 2006-07, when 80% of the snow came after Feb. 1.
** Percent is for 2013-14, as Nov. 2013 was coldest of 20 at -3.6.

Note:  I did this exercise for the 125 years of the Farmington co-op and found all the same trends (except for Nov +4), though not as pronounced.
 

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Nah ... not likely it will define the entire Autumn and early Winter ... but may bear some persistence for the time being. 

Scott really nailed it there ... wave lengths in the means are still small-ish and -EPO means warm over eastern N/A mid latitudes. 

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the ACATT crew were Scotsman, Ginx would be William Wallace.

Maybe, but Flippity floppity (i.e. Kevin) would be Robert The Bruce.  ...One day as King of Cold the next day as Sultan of sweat.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

All Cold All The Time.

Seasons in season's crew is deflecting their nervousness too.  Only a couple months away from, "I tried to get it to snow but you all got your wish, a warm rain storm" type melts. ;) 

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seasons in season's crew is deflecting their nervousness too.  Only a couple months away from, "I tried to get it to snow but you all got your wish, a warm rain storm" type melts. ;) 

Desperate posts asking Will and Scott if there is any chance the mix line slows down it's advance and then even more desperate posts asking if there is any chance it collapses back South as that monster coastal hugger buries WNE.

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