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October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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58 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Any correlation between this and us here not in Siberia ?

Without butchering his theory too much...Siberian snow cover extent portends a significant source of cold air. With the right conditions, a cross-polar flow in the winter months, should help to deliver the goods. 

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4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Without butchering his theory too much...Siberian snow cover extent portends a significant source of cold air. With the right conditions, a cross-polar flow in the winter months, should help to deliver the goods. 

It's bad for us, promotes a strong PV

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38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's bad for us, promotes a strong PV

No it doesn't, rapid expansion of snow cover in October has been correlated with strong periods of -AO  in the winter, which promotes cold and snowy weather. 

If you look at the chart, some of the highest snow cover years included 2014 and 2009, two cold/snowy winters. 

The worst was 2011, which happened to be the worst winter in recent memory.

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43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Uh?

 

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it doesn't, rapid expansion of snow cover in October has been correlated with strong periods of -AO  in the winter, which promotes cold and snowy weather. 

If you look at the chart, some of the highest snow cover years included 2014 and 2009, two cold/snowy winters. 

The worst was 2011, which happened to be the worst winter in recent memory.

Seriously guys, stop playing into his hand, he does this every year. Just ignore him.

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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Any correlation between this and us here not in Siberia ?

It has a weak correlation with the predominant state of the winter AO, but it has missed badly in recent years. Given the magnitude of recent misses, it’s increasingly an open question as to whether it is any more skillful than climatology. 

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18 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 we want " WHITE " not " wet " lol

Too early

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not out of the question that the warmest spots in the DCA-EWR corridor see a rare Halloween 70.

f108.jpg.4c69e1325da039f77193ce62a2348460.jpg

 

 

 

November doesn't look warm at all during the 1st week

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13 minutes ago, doncat said:

^^Temp departure here now at +1.5 degrees for the month...We've come a long way since the first 11 days of the month which were +10 degrees.

While we got cooler temperatures since the middle of the month, it wasn't cold enough to flip the departures cold. Similar to recent months, warmest departures are east of NYC. The month should end on a warm note with the positive departures for the 31st.

October 2018 temperature departures through the 26th:

EWR...+1.4

NYC....+1.5

JFK.....+1.4

LGA.....+2.5

BDR.....+2.3

ISP......+2.6

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_5.thumb.png.576742dcc4cb865093ac4616a9d2bcb7.png

 

 

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