Powerball Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 10 hours ago, IWXwx said: I lol when the point forecast algorithm does this. Can you say wintry mix? Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 2pm, then a chance of rain between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before 7pm, then rain likely between 7pm and 3am, then a chance of rain and snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. The last 2 seem reasonable, but that 1st one is definitely funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 I really wish the weekly CFS would stop defaulting to warm as a result of climate change, it makes long range forecasting nearly impossible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 The upcoming cutoff is annoying. Could waste a normally good track. Guess can still hope it trends toward having just enough cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The upcoming cutoff is annoying. Could waste a normally good track. Guess can still hope it trends toward having just enough cold air. It's always something. Perfect looking storm but all rain. Never goes our way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The upcoming cutoff is annoying. Could waste a normally good track. Guess can still hope it trends toward having just enough cold air. ICON joins GEM in showing at least a little accum's. Especially friendly to OK and NWAR where it's showing spotty purple amt's. Will be a LOL moment if this trended to a decent hit for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 hours ago, Jonger said: I really wish the weekly CFS would stop defaulting to warm as a result of climate change, it makes long range forecasting nearly impossible. From your lips to deaf gov ears, sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 On 12/9/2018 at 11:10 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I think the south is in a better location for extreme snow events due to their proximity to the ocean. Outside of the Lake Effect snow region, you just don't see a lot of big snows in the midwest, especially the area of the midwest I am in. The biggest snow we saw last winter was 4" !! I saw 8" in GA last December and there was a foot just 10 miles away lol. And now the south is getting another huge snowstorm. It's amazing how many cold and cloudy days this part of the country gets, but doesn't get a lot of snow to show for it. 100% wrong. You were in Indiana one Winter. I don't know what you are not grasping about the concept. I'm not sure where in Indiana you live, but again, since 2000, Indianapolis (FAR from the best location for snow in indiana) has had 32 snowstorms of 4" or more, 17 of 6"+, and 4 of 10"+. Obviously, to have the biggest storm of the season be 4" is on the low side. Atlanta meanwhile, in that same timeframe, has had THREE storms of 4"+, the largest being 4.6". 90% of this subform outside the lake belts averages 1-2+ snowstorms PER WINTER of 6"+. Most of the deep south outside the mountainstops is lucky if they average 1 per DECADE. I do not deny that you are in one of the worst areas of this sub forum for snow, however on average you still certainly will do much better than the deep South in terms of big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 On 12/10/2018 at 7:49 AM, Powerball said: The last 2 seem reasonable, but that 1st one is definitely funny. They have always been bad but this year is an absolute sh*t show with them defaulting to warm in cold patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 100% wrong. You were in Indiana one Winter. I don't know what you are not grasping about the concept. I'm not sure where in Indiana you live, but again, since 2000, Indianapolis (FAR from the best location for snow in indiana) has had 32 snowstorms of 4" or more, 17 of 6"+, and 4 of 10"+. Obviously, to have the biggest storm of the season be 4" is on the low side. Atlanta meanwhile, in that same timeframe, has had THREE storms of 4"+, the largest being 4.6". 90% of this subform outside the lake belts averages 1-2+ snowstorms PER WINTER of 6"+. Most of the deep south outside the mountainstops is lucky if they average 1 per DECADE. I do not deny that you are in one of the worst areas of this sub forum for snow, however on average you still certainly will do much better than the deep South in terms of big snowstorms. So you are saying it was just bad luck that I saw 8" of snow in GA last December and the biggest snow I saw in IN was 4" last winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: So you are saying it was just bad luck that I saw 8" of snow in GA last December and the biggest snow I saw in IN was 4" last winter ? anomaly?....sure. luck?....that works too. Why what's your explanation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 100% wrong. You were in Indiana one Winter. I don't know what you are not grasping about the concept. I'm not sure where in Indiana you live, but again, since 2000, Indianapolis (FAR from the best location for snow in indiana) has had 32 snowstorms of 4" or more, 17 of 6"+, and 4 of 10"+. Obviously, to have the biggest storm of the season be 4" is on the low side. Atlanta meanwhile, in that same timeframe, has had THREE storms of 4"+, the largest being 4.6". 90% of this subform outside the lake belts averages 1-2+ snowstorms PER WINTER of 6"+. Most of the deep south outside the mountainstops is lucky if they average 1 per DECADE. I do not deny that you are in one of the worst areas of this sub forum for snow, however on average you still certainly will do much better than the deep South in terms of big snowstorms. That actually seems like a decent stretch for a place like Indy. I don't know for sure but my guess is that the long term frequency (since records began) for those categories may be somewhat less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: So you are saying it was just bad luck that I saw 8" of snow in GA last December and the biggest snow I saw in IN was 4" last winter ? You are looking at a 1 year vacuum and complaining... Drive this out to 5 years and I would bet that 8" snowfall in GA is their only one while you have at least a couple higher here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 This morning Randy Ollis mentioned Indy has yet to record a 1" snowfall this season and we are quite late for that to happen. It looks to be another week away at least. Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: This morning Randy Ollis mentioned Indy has yet to record a 1" snowfall this season and we are quite late for that to happen. It looks to be another week away at least. Sigh. I have hope by Christmas. Pattern looks to flip around then so that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Somebody turn the snow (back) on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I'll probably regret saying this but Id rather have rain than NO weather at all... and it's just getting started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Well we got a quick hit of what I would call a "generous dusting" up to about 1/2" of mood flakes this morning. Better than the bare tundra of the last couple weeks. The annoying thing is, we got whiffed to the south by the November crusher, yet you go about 30-45 minutes north around Portage, Wis. Dells, Mauston etc. and there's solid snow cover. Made for a nice effect with the lights of the CP Holiday Train when I chased it last Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/11/2018 at 10:16 AM, michsnowfreak said: They have always been bad but this year is an absolute sh*t show with them defaulting to warm in cold patterns. Feb 2015 was above normal on the CFS until the month was right on the doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2018 Author Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Somebody turn the snow (back) on Lol at the sucker hole in Huntington, Wabash, and Miami Counties in IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 CFS: Clowns Forecast Sunshine (and warmth!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 GFS has finally done it, it shows us getting a Trace of snow between now and day 16, and that is widespread across most of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 There is a real possibility that we see under 2" of snow through the end of the month. Models have reallyyyyy backed off any sort of real change between the 20th and 25th, dragging on the suckage to almost new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Lol at the sucker hole in Huntington, Wabash, and Miami Counties in IN. Im in that too here in Avon. Just sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 On 12/11/2018 at 12:52 PM, Hoosier said: That actually seems like a decent stretch for a place like Indy. I don't know for sure but my guess is that the long term frequency (since records began) for those categories may be somewhat less. It probably is. I'm not familiar enough with Indys climo to confirm, but it would make sense as we have had that here in Detroit. Snowstorm frequency is much increased since 2000 over the long term average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: Somebody turn the snow (back) on A depressing comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Recently drove down to Nashville and couldn't believe how far south Cincinnati felt. Weather wise Cincinnati has nothing in common with southern ontario/WNY/SE MI Which leads me to a question. When do you guys feel like you've entered the south? For me its Cincinnati, especially its Kentucky suburbs. Ive heard Cincinnati been referred to as the most southern northern city and the most northern southern city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The last frame of the 06z GFS. Look at that 540 line. This is plain stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Recently drove down to Nashville and couldn't believe how far south Cincinnati felt. Weather wise Cincinnati has nothing in common with southern ontario/WNY/SE MI Which leads me to a question. When do you guys feel like you've entered the south? For me its Cincinnati, especially its Kentucky suburbs. Ive heard Cincinnati been referred to as the most southern northern city and the most northern southern city. I am from GA and I can tell you that Cincinnati is not the south. Parts of KY have a southern feel but generally speaking I dont consider KY to be the south. You reach the south once you cross the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 58 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I am from GA and I can tell you that Cincinnati is not the south. Parts of KY have a southern feel but generally speaking I dont consider KY to be the south. You reach the south once you cross the TN border. Interesting. Its like theres a no mans land between the two haha. From my travels across the eastern part of the continent southern Illinois thru southern Indiana-KY-WV-MD-DE all have qualities of south and north. KY and WV to me seem to have a lot more southern aspects of culture. One of my favorite indicators of the south is grits and accent. Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, Columbus and Indianapolis I hear little to no accent. Cincinnati, Lousiville, Charleston WV is where I hear the first southern accents and the menus all start adding grits prominently. To add my own experience with accents, when in Nashville they assumed pretty correctly that I was from the North East, but not from NYC or Boston. Dont mean to go way off topic, just a boring pattern right now and interested in this sort of stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: The last frame of the 06z GFS. Look at that 540 line. This is plain stupid. The 12z pushed it another 1,000 miles to the north for this weekend!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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