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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’d be very surprised if 12z euro doesn’t have Florence parallel the coast based on this look out to hr 24 with a 1026 hp pressing south out of NNE.

Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.

Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.

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Cloud pattern is looking better.  Southern outflow is expanding.  Also seems to really be slowing down now.  Although not deep she's sitting over some high octane rocket fuel..  She got displaced from the upper ridge that was over the top but it may be re-establishing itself from CIMMS wind analysis.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

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35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Conditions have improved at Frying pan and the wind direction has shifted, presumably from onshore to out of the North now.

not true.  wind is still in the same direction its been all morning

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That inner eyewall is looking pretty unimpressive on radar. These outer rain bands look more potent

Needs to finish mixing out that dry air first. This morning it was on the Southwest side, now it's on the Eastern side.

I'm wondering if some land interaction and resulting friction will aid in tightening the core as well.

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12 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

not true.  wind is still in the same direction its been all morning

I apologize NJ...I thought I was looking at a live feed but I was not.  you were indeed correct.  carry on

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1 hour ago, wawayanda said:

Live cam from the pier at Bogue Inlet, Emerald Isle NC.

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. 

That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday

That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it   

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13 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said:

Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. 

That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday

That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it   

You can barely see anything now on the live feed. 

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New eyewall convection is finally going up in the NE quadrant. Perhaps things are finally beginning to become better organized. Bad news for the coast.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

New eyewall convection is finally going up in the NE quadrant. Perhaps things are finally beginning to become better organized. Bad news for the coast.

East side of the storm has come back nicely the past few hours after looking dried up for a decent part of the morning 

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

East side of the storm has come back nicely the past few hours after looking dried up for a decent part of the morning 

Agreed, still somewhat of a moat to deal with but improving every minute

7aLnxd3.gif

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55 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48.

12Z Euro EPS

eps_florence.png

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Not sure if this belongs here but this surge will be under forecast imho. Look at those webcams and the water already to houses at low tide and storm still a decent ways offshore still from worst surge. High tide tonight is going to be devastating. 

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