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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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7 minutes ago, Suncat said:

Yes, it looks like the model wants the storm to travel against the gulf stream current.

Makes sense. Follow the path of least resistance. I could def see that being a plausible scenario. Would be catastrophic for the entire SC coast. CHS airport closes at midnight tonight. 

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The 8 am update has the pressure down to 943 MB.

Also, if the storm follows the recent Euro run I don't think GA is really prepared for that. The preparations in GA have not been nearly as substantial as the Carolinas.

That run where it goes up over central GA would have it going right over Atlanta which has over 6M people.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eye is decent, I think that satellite image is a bit older and skewed. Some nice recent images on the TT page.

The end of the loop is less than an hour old, but point taken.

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Maybe someone can clarify this for me.  Ive always read/heard of two explanations of Storm Surge.. One is that it is the phenomena where exceedingly low pressure in the eye 'sucks' up the water like straw and carries it inland.. The other is that the winds piling up the water on the north/east  side of the storm (depending on trajectory) deposit it inland.  Which one is correct?

 

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2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Maybe someone can clarify this for me.  Ive always read/heard of two explanations of Storm Surge.. One is that it is the phenomena where exceedingly low pressure in the eye 'sucks' up the water like straw and carries it inland.. The other is that the winds piling up the water on the north/east  side of the storm deposit it inland.  Which one is correct?

 

It's overwhelmingly wind pile up; in an extremely strong hurricane the low pressure is perhaps a foot. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf

 

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The saving grace will be if the storm stalls just offshore and weakens as it moves southwest.

Saving grace from what?  What a stupid comment.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Saving grace from what?  What a stupid comment.

Would a stall by the coast mitigate some of the inland flooding potential? Heaviest rains might not make it far enough up river. Prior model runs were catastrophic in that regard.

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Just now, Kelathos said:

Would a stall by the coast mitigate some of the inland flooding potential? Heaviest rains might not make it far enough up river. Prior model runs were catastrophic in that regard.

Define inland?  A stalled/meandering TC is going to be pumping moisture over broader area where a storm that is progressive won't have the same impact.  This storm looks like a Harvey redux. 

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26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The saving grace will be if the storm stalls just offshore and weakens as it moves southwest.

Negative, aside from sparing locations further inland more wind/flood damage. The stall will allow for persistent surge through multiple tide cycles combined with feet of rain with nowhere to escape. The potential exists for a large swath of coast to be more or less obliterated. This is what Hazel 1954 did: "All traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated... every pier in a distance of 170 miles of coastline was demolished". 

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Satellite presentation looks the best that Florence has looked in a couple of days,  Convection is very symmetrical and the eye is not ragged in the least.  I wouldn’t be surprised if recon found pressures in the upper 930’s at some point today.

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This is the 06z HWRF, it shows about 18 hours of sustained hurricane force winds pounding the NC coast. The wind field is humungous and the storm surge will be severe in some areas.

mYtvROO.gif

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Storm is very NE quad heavy. Flight level winds are barely hitting 100kts in the other quads. Not true surprising with solid forward motion currently. Looks pretty steady-state despite the improved appearance form last night. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Second recon pass found the pressure back up a few mb to about 947 mb.

They probably just missed the center

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wind would be less severe, but more cane force over a larger area and the flooding just as bad.

Winds generating the majority of the damage diminished over the last 48hrs when this stall/meandering solution became predominant.  It's shifted to a catastrophic surge/flooding storm.  And by no means should the winds be ignored.  A Cat 3 storm will cause severe damage.  Places in NC/SC will see 12-24"+ of rain with no where for that to drain for a several days.  Not good.

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