WeatherfreakVA

Well, Im in Central VA. Over the past 48 hours, my rainfall estimates went from 15 inches to 2 inches. People in my area wiped out the local walmarts and supply stores. Local media was saying brace yourself. Now it approaches and does a loop around my location staying atleast 250miles from my location during the duration. Most I can forsee is some gusty showers, and maybe an isolated tornado threat, and even then, we may be too far from the center to get upper support. But one small thing Id like to add. Anyone in the path of Florence needs to go now. With a stall over or just off the coast, won't really matter much. The strength of Florence is not something the Carolinas have had to deal with and may make Hugo of 89 look like childs play. The upwelling that Florence will produce will weaken the storm regardless. So once stalled it will begin to loose strength over land or not. However, if it stalls and sits, I can foresee this system going hybrid which coukd drastically affect its size and possibly its eventual path. Now from that point, as the models begin its westward push into the Carolinas, Im seeing the potential that the western ridge being over modeled as the EURO, GFS, CMC, was initially doing with the atlantic ridge. Looking at larger picture, I can absolutely see how the models may trend more northward instead of northwestward toward Tennessee. Possibly bringing the system over the apps and eventually across PA and out, instead of Atlanta or Ohio. Yes the ridge will be buckling on both sides of Florence. But Im not sold on the huge loop around VA idea. Even with a 5 day post landfall hurricane, Ive witnessed some of the worst flooding in my life. With Florence being as large as she is, my area already being saturated couldnt handle another drop, especially from the remnants of a tropical system. My overall feeling is the storm will stall and hook SW, West, and eventually North. The differnce of 150 miles closer to VA would be the difference between nothing and something major. Everyone has thrown in the towel on the possible impacts to my area. But the closest approach to my area is 5 days out still. As history has taught me with hurricane forecasting, if you believe the 5 day models are correct, then you will probably have sunny weather. I also believe the tornado threat may be abnormally elevated with Florence based on opposing flow surrounding the storm as its stalled. This will be my last post unless we have a flip flop in models. Ive only made a few posts as when I joined 2 days ago, we were well into the systems impact zone. You guys are awesome here and I will continue to use this platform in the future. May the lord be with the many who are being stubborn and riding out the storm. Im afraid if it stalls just off the coast, a 100 mile stretch of the coast may have around 72 hours of hurricane force conditions. History will be made and we will have to redraw the coast.