fourseasons Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I believe I have a bingo, I have 384 GFS, people misreading IR satellites, misspelling of the word bizarre, wishcasting to NYC, and people announcing the start of every model run all day. You forgot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, fourseasons said: You forgot IMO. Yeah I am working on a coverall now, gotta win that jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 going to start a bingo card thread on the next legit storm threat we get after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: We need a landfall contest thread. Anybody who nails this one is really good. give me 110kts at Emerald Isle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Carolina beach at 100kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: give me 115kts at Emerald Isle Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: Ol Typo. I meant 110kts which was my call from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 North topsail, 80kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: We need a landfall contest thread. Anybody who nails this one is really good. OTS and no landfall. No soup for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 90. Cape Lookout.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Atlantic Beach, 105knots. Think this things gonna have a last minute north trend, just a feeling, probably totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Sustained 25 kt winds with gale-force gusts to 45 kt. ~ 20 kt higher at the Delaware coastline. Goldsboro, MD. Convergent fetch from the high pressures stalling this thing way south and winds from Florence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I still think this goes ashore before stalling, so I will go 120kt and 943mb just ene of Wilmington NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Love this website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 There is a bit of a double eyewall in the windfield. Not a conclusive ERC yet. Edit: of wrong thread. I'll leave it here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 31 minutes ago, ChineseFood4Snow said: Love this website... If you think air traffic controllers have an easy job, look at that lineup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Satellite presentation is starting to look a bit better, but something def was eroding the SW quadrant. It has likely been a Cat3 for the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GravityWaveWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, hickory said: We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh The BIG difference is chaos (in mathematical context). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, hickory said: We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, hickory said: We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh But we know it's there and have a bunch of algorithms computing where it may wind up. Pretty good, I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, jayson said: Satellite presentation is starting to look a bit better, but something def was eroding the SW quadrant. It has likely been a Cat3 for the past few hours. There has definitely been some shear but it shouldn't persist much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, hickory said: We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Most recent AF pass had central pressure at 944mb. It was 945mb at 8pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Look I just wish our goverment would spend more on science than defense. Imagine what we could do with half of the defense budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. It wasn’t that great when Florence went from low end cane to cat 4 over 27c water. But I agree it’s light years better then it was 30 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, hickory said: Look I just wish our goverment would spend more on science than defense. Imagine what we could do with half of the defense budget. To be sure I would be heartened if we were to increase NOAA’s budget by say, the flyaway cost of 10 F-35s per year, and to be sure it is worthwhile to continue to strive for 120 or 168 or 192 hours of reliable warning rather than 96, 72, or 48-36. But Derecho! is right that sciencewise the forecasting is amazing; what probably most needs attention is our social and civic infrastructure in terms of preparedness & anticipating climatologically plausible emergencies generally and for acting on the warnings we do get for specific imminent hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I am so proud of my local forecast office because every dang little infographic and powerpoint slide they put out on everything from “weird clouds” to “life hazardous blizzard chaos” shows that somewhere, some trained weather professional is striving not just to have a forecast that verifies but also to make it meaningfully actionable for idiots like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well it looks like the NHC is doing a white lie keeping Florence officially at 140 mph. With a storm so threatening I'd fear lowering the wind speed would decrease public concern so I can see why they are bending the observations a little bit and more than likely with the pressure falling I'd say the storm will restrengthen to some extent. If the storm were to maintain the status quo and were still kept at 140 I'd have a problem with it however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Derecho! said: Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. The Euro nailed the general position of Florence along the NC coast on day 9, maybe day 10 when it was just a wave coming off the west African coast. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.