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Hurricane Florence


NCSNOW
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A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. 
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Looks like they dont think the short term track error matters downstream....

Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.
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20 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Especially when it seems like everything has been trending south for a while now. I'm anxiously looking forward to the NHC's next update. I'm also curious about how they handle all the models that keep showing southwest movement off the coast on this one.

Todays modle runs have ttrended ever so slightly north.

 

Just now, StormFollowerUSA said:

What CLT? 

Charlotte

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I think the Raleigh news station mets just took some time off....haven't seen anything tweeted today. WRAL basically just says "Rain." for the weekend...

I'm assuming Raleigh wind/rain totals are fairly low at this point? My sister in Charlotte just had a baby and I was going to offer for them to come up here so they're not without power for days.

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7 minutes ago, phishbfm said:

I think the Raleigh news station mets just took some time off....haven't seen anything tweeted today. WRAL basically just says "Rain." for the weekend...

I'm assuming Raleigh wind/rain totals are fairly low at this point? My sister in Charlotte just had a baby and I was going to offer for them to come up here so they're not without power for days.

Allan Huffman posted his forecast map about an hour ago and has Raleigh in the 3-6" of rain area. He didn't make a wind prediction, but if you were to go by forecasts and models, you'd say maybe gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

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12 minutes ago, JoshM said:

:facepalm:

Has everyone lost their minds around my area?

 

Evidently.  Overall this thing has been a bit overhyped IMO, from evacuating the entire SC coast 2 days ago to this.  The charlotte observer is telling everybody on the front page for everybody to be prepared to be without power for 3 days.  I'm just not seeing it for clt.  Yes, there's going to be alot of rain (maybe).  And if you live in a floodplain, there's going to be flooding (could be).  I'm not sure power outages are going to be widespread even if there is alot of rain.  So why cancel schools....before it even reaches Charlotte? Facebook recommendations seem out of control too from what I hear from my workmates. 

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From my NWS office:

Friday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Per the wind maps on Weather.us a lot of 60+ mph winds...she has a huge wind field if accurate it gets strong TS gust into the Triangle, this is why people need to stay focused.....not to mention that she still keeps on trucking NW away from the NHC track she could end up here sooner and north of where the forecast is now.....there isnt nearly as much stall either she keeps it moving though she does it slowly...still it makes more sense than sitting and spinning right on the coast the going SW to Charleston offshore....lots of people with no power this run

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2018091218_46_23960_377.thumb.png.a9eb60bcc63430428f75968e3768d278.png

 

 

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Glad it has weakened today and hope it doesn't strengthen anymore. Wife and I went out to eat this evening and most restaurants and fast food joints are closed. Found a Waffle house open so reluctantly ate there. Gas stations are closing and most grocery stores are open until about 9 or 10 tonight and then closing until storm passes.

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7 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Also, our local news had there future radar model show us having very little effect from Florence. Just some wind and rain. Much worse at the southern coast south of J-actionville.

Yeah Wral said now 3-5 inches of rain here and 30-40ish mph gusting. Moderate to isolated power outages. Said not expecting too much impact like we were here in Raleigh. Based on that most people here will ride it out. I’m staying put for now and watching just in case we need to pull the plug. 

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19 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Also, our local news had there future radar model show us having very little effect from Florence. Just some wind and rain. Much worse at the southern coast south of J-actionville.

For New Bern, if Florence is in Onslow Bay, I'd expect gusts easily over 50mph perhaps hurricane force gusts even and heavy rain. Just some wind and rain does not sound like a reasonable forecast.

Screenshot from 2018-09-12 18-30-56.png

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1 minute ago, bigshaq00 said:

who knows it could climb back up north to the triangle 

Anything is possible. That’s why I’m watching. I already have meds and documents packed up. Just have to grab clothes and the pets and likely head to Greensboro. Trying to avoid that. 

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A storm this wide, I wouldn't worry so much about the SLP track. If it were to make landfall in SE NC and then drift W or WSW, the winds will start to spread out pretty dramatically, especially on the right quadrant. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see RDU gust to Hurricane strength if the GFS is right.

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Eye seems to be drifting west the last 30 minutes or so

If you didn’t know any better looking at satellite today you’d think Florence had its own mind and deliberately deviated north to get away from the shear and dry air and now said okay I’m resuming course again. 

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I see the posts about overhyping.  I am by no means even knowledgeable enough to be dangerous discussing weather, but I do study and have worked in politics all my adult life.  In my corner of the triangle right now there are still gas lines, people evacuating, and water and essentials have been hard to find for days now.  All the schools are closed Thursday and Friday.  UNC basically shut down Tuesday evening and has been trying to get all their students to go home.  At Elon, where I work, they cancelled class and encouraged all students to go home beginning Tuesday.  At a school where 25 or so of the kids are from NC and many from the NE etc this isnt as easy as it sounds.  Tons of folks to fly out etc.  Overreaction yeah maybe, but with 7000 undergrads needing 3 meals a day if the power goes out thats 21000 meals a day on generator power.  No bueno. The school is not supposed to keep students on campus if they lose power, but local communities cannot absorb 7000 bodies in their shelters so they basically had no choice.

I dont know what the answer to this stuff is, but when you are hitting 5 days out or less and everything seems to be pointing one way and historic flooding, what do you do?  I feel bad for the people who are going to take a hit from this.  I am a bit of a prepper so I just needed a few things, but many people were making choices between bills and hurricane prep etc.  Its a tricky situation.  It doesnt feel good enough to just say better to be safe than sorry, but the alternative is?  I very much worry that most people will just tune out next time on this kind of stuff.

 

On a personal level, I have been in NC for 12 years now and havent even gotten a good kiss from a hurricane yet.  Weirdly, I felt more hurricane effects in Massachusetts than NC and thats depressing.

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