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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut
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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’ve had 4” at golf course in Fairfield last night / this morn.   Still closed.   Not looking good 

And to think, I gotten a whopping 0.00" so far. For some reason, Tamaqua is known as the "Land of the Running Water", but I'm not sure why. Whenever we have a precipitation event, we are one of the areas with the LOWEST totals. Perhaps what they meant was that the water "runs away" from Tamaqua...

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47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s great to see the Fall thread underway!

The cool temperatures this weekend are a welcome relief from the 90’s that we had to endure this past week.

The rain this weekend from Gordon’s remnants, followed possibly from the impacts of Florence later next week could be a massive problem for Central PA.

 

For some, maybe.

My area? I know better. We will miss a good chunk of Gordon's remnants to the west and north, and Florence's will never get here.

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1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

If Florence stalls out and dies in north carolina and virginia then we probably won't see too much rain from it I'd think. Couldn't imagine what would happen if it came up here after getting all of this rain from gordon ontop of the record rain we've had all year and all summer.

I just looked at this mornings Euro and GFS.

The Euro gets Florence's precip right to the Mason-Dixon Line, hammers Virginia with 15-25 inches, and then shuts it off, and the GFS, well...it's out to lunch as it keeps all the rain offshore, with a whopping 95 inches out over the open Atlantic...

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16 hours ago, daxx said:

I'm all rained out!  Send it north,south,east, or west. We have had so much rain this year, it almost feels abnormal when it's not raining. I'm ready for our first frost and freeze.

This!!! Enough already. Here's hoping Flo is one giant no-show. I feel sick for all the people around here that have lost so much from flooding this summer. Give them a break, please...

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Company picnic today at Hersheypark...yeah, not so nice for an amusement park day. Remarkably, I think everyone who was there parked in the closest lot adjacent to the old arena. There were very, very few people milling about.

Susquehanna is supposed to reach 46' in Marietta by late Tuesday before leveling off. At that stage the LSV will be vulnerable to river flooding if Flo does pay us a visit. 

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It literally has not stopped raining here in the last 30+ hours, with the rest of the overnight and Monday to go for this event. Flooding issues have been steadily increasing with several road closures being noted and some of the local waterways cracking flood stage. 

The prospect of Florence potentially impacting our area at the end of the week definitely has my attention as I am very concerned about the flood potential from such an outcome. This current event (remnants of Gordon + frontal boundary) is already concerning enough as it looks to generate a pretty widespread flooding event throughout a large section of the commonwealth by later tomorrow in addition to what's already occurring. Some of the heaviest rainfall rates could occur later today with the passage of the frontal boundary and the potential addition of a more convective element to the rainfall vs the stratiform rain that has been occurring over the last 24-30 hours or so. 

The most worrisome thing when it comes to Florence is the potential for it to stall out. Modeling builds a pretty commanding eastern ridge with significant + anomalies over Quebac/Ontario. It's starting to becoming evident on the models that there might not be anything to recurve the storm or at least kick the storm out quickly in the event of an eastern US impact. Right now the last couple runs have been focused more with a stall in VA/lower Mid Atlantic after a Carolinas landfall. That's really not any better down there, as the entire Mid Atlantic region (in addition to us) have been extremely wet this summer. When I look at this potential I quickly think of 2004's Frances/Ivan combo. The heavy rain and flooding that occurred with Frances the weekend before really helped set the stage for the major flooding that came from Ivan. One could argue the flooding potential is even worse with this. 2004 was nowhere near as wet in the couple preceding summer months as this summer has been. We will have to watch Florence and the future model runs very carefully this week... I'm def concerned. 

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Good to see you Mag. 

While Mag has due cause to be alarmed (as we all do after the last few days and what we have in store for today), it does appear that as currently modeled, that Florence hits a wall at the MD line and skirts/retrogrades/stalls (model dependent), but for now, we seem to get into it, but on the more northern side of precip shield.  The stall shown on hrs 96-168 on GEFS would make many bay folks quite nervous.  Infeed up int the bay from NE quad from the atlantic would be nuts.  GEPS has similar look with the stall, but further south into GA Carolinas and would "save the bay".  EPS track from free panels looks like it follows GEPS (or GEPS follows EPS - depending on what model you worship).

Interesting week coming up.  Stay dry if you can...

Nut

 

edited  to NE quad due to my issues w/ left and right...N....S...blah blah....like i tell my wife when we are driving, just look at my fingers for direction i'm pointing to....and dont listen to me.  LOL  I do that all the time.  

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Good to see you Mag. 

While Mag has due cause to be alarmed (as we all do after the last few days and what we have in store for today), it does appear that as currently modeled, that Florence hits a wall at the MD line and skirts/retrogrades/stalls (model dependent), but for now, we seem to get into it, but on the more northern side of precip shield.  The stall shown on hrs 96-168 on GEFS would make many bay folks quite nervous.  Infeed up int the bay from NW quad from the atlantic would be nuts.  GEPS has similar look with the stall, but further south into GA Carolinas and would "save the bay".  EPS track from free panels looks like it follows GEPS (or GEPS follows EPS - depending on what model you worship).

Interesting week coming up.  Stay dry if you can...

Nut

I have a suspicion we miss most all of the moisture, which unfortunately means those south and especially in the Blue Ridges are going to get really hammered with floods. 

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12 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have a suspicion we miss most all of the moisture, which unfortunately means those south and especially in the Blue Ridges are going to get really hammered with floods. 

While i initially worried about that as well, the NW (yes NW) verbatim, the precip stays tightly wrapped through @ 132 and only opens up slightly before trekking ENE pulling precip shield along w/ it.  GEFS was farthest N solution so I'm looking due to MBY implications.  Other ENS guidance keeps this far enough S for S appalachia Boone/Asheville to get the goods.  

I hope it goos poof today....for all of us.  the whole east coast needs sun....lotsa sun.

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The rain has finally started to relent around here, after being non-stop since about this time SATURDAY afternoon. In terms of the flooding on the local rivers this is probably the worst since Ivan in my immediate local area. Lots of road closures. 

322 just reopened today in Northern Lanco after being closed for almost 10 days.  Welcome to the club buddy..

This is getting quite old.  Team GFS Ensemble shifted East w/ precip max and while we get a "refresher", we dont get a shellackin.  I'd say a fair consensus for today's runs that south of Hatteras is not where I'd want to be on Friday.

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