Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I think the models today & tonight are playing catch up with the Euro. Here is its Kuchera ratio from 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, but the trend has been colder on the models from 12z ,& the 3k NAM in particular has made a significant jump up with snow totals for the LSV at 0z Ratios will play a large role, but the trend is there. No doubt the trend is there. Maybe the NAM scores one here. Of note is the strong easterly fetch of air by tomorrow morning. Off the mild ocean waters, can be underestimated by guidance. It has burned me several times in the past... Also, we’re sitting about 3-4 degrees warmer at the surface than the 0z NAM shows in soundings for this time. Not saying it means anything and it could even out in the wash, but something to watch. Not trying to be a buzz killington here, but these fine line set ups in November tend to pan out more toward the mixy scenario vs. the snowy one. There’s always an exception though, maybe this one is it? TBD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NWS lowered totals here down to 2 to 4 so must be seeing something to think early mix. Feels a little absurd for Warning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Our local news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 to 9 is wayyy off nws call....I tend to side with ctp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Voyager said: Going frame by frame on the 0z HRRR on Tropical Tidbits with sim radar and all I can say is "wow"... IMBY it gives 8 hours of snow before a flip to sleet. Atta boy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Hey we will take what we get and like it, hope you all enjoy some great wintry scenes ...great start to year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Where are the CTP snow maps that show the min, forecast, & max amounts? They had them last year under winter weather but I can’t find them now. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Expect snow to come in like a wall tomorrow. If you believe the 3k NAM this would easily support rates of 1 inch per hour or greater in State College in the afternoon. i would expect a general 4-8” across CTP with isolated up to 10” north of I-80. Trends are definitely encouraging tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This will certainly be a very dynamic event. The image above shows a pretty good setup for heavy precipitation in central PA with the area between the right entrance region of the northern jet streak and the exit region of the southern jet streak (add in some curvature on the latter and that increases the favorable lift for our area). You can see below that this circulation is also tied to mid-/low-level frontogensis; this region of enhanced lift moves northward Thursday afternoon and will be associated with the heaviest precipitation. A forecast profile from this time shows the maximum lift (i.e., negative omega) around 600 mb at UNV. It happens to also coincide with the dendritic growth zone so that, coupled with the near-freezing temperatures between 850-750 mb should lead to very large, wet aggregates around this time. The duration of snow vs IP or ZR is of course predicated on how resilient the cold air will be at low levels. There is noticeable 500-mb confluence over northern New England currently, helping to promote anticyclogenesis and associated cold ageostrophic flow into our region. However, the surface high moves eastward and weakens late Thursday into Friday, allowing for temperatures to warm above freezing the in the 800-700 mb region. Things do cool off again for potentially another round of moderate snow as the energy from the secondary low moves east through the region Friday morning (probably more favorable for areas in eastern PA). It's definitely a cold airmass for this time of year, but I have been burned before up here with mixing occurring earlier than expected. Will be a fun one to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Where are the CTP snow maps that show the min, forecast, & max amounts? They had them last year under winter weather but I can’t find them now. . Pro https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 49 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: This will certainly be a very dynamic event. The image above shows a pretty good setup for heavy precipitation in central PA with the area between the right entrance region of the northern jet streak and the exit region of the southern jet streak (add in some curvature on the latter and that increases the favorable lift for our area). You can see below that this circulation is also tied to mid-/low-level frontogensis; this region of enhanced lift moves northward Thursday afternoon and will be associated with the heaviest precipitation. A forecast profile from this time shows the maximum lift (i.e., negative omega) around 600 mb at UNV. It happens to also coincide with the dendritic growth zone so that, coupled with the near-freezing temperatures between 850-750 mb should lead to very large, wet aggregates around this time. The duration of snow vs IP or ZR is of course predicated on how resilient the cold air will be at low levels. There is noticeable 500-mb confluence over northern New England currently, helping to promote anticyclogenesis and associated cold ageostrophic flow into our region. However, the surface high moves eastward and weakens late Thursday into Friday, allowing for temperatures to warm above freezing the in the 800-700 mb region. Things do cool off again for potentially another round of moderate snow as the energy from the secondary low moves east through the region Friday morning (probably more favorable for areas in eastern PA). It's definitely a cold airmass for this time of year, but I have been burned before up here with mixing occurring earlier than expected. Will be a fun one to watch! I can certainly understand CTPs perspective of having to temper forecast snow amounts with regards to a very uncertain evolution on mixed precip. For the UNV region and surrounding areas I see this as more of snow/sleet and how much sleet mixes in scenario as the central counties should easily remain below 0c at 925mb to the surface. Even though the high does eventually start moving away and weaken some as the storm advances, it’s still a pretty cold setup especially given it’s only mid-November. An intense push of precip with the initial precip shield with the aforementioned strong lift might render that a moot point if the region (including a big part of the LSV) gets crushed with several hours of heavy snowfall right off the bat. That seems to be where the near term modeling like the HRRR is going. I personally think it’s going to be more of a 5-8” type deal back in this area but I am certainly aware that sneaky warm air in that 750-850 region could sleet that top end away quickly. If things did end up mostly all snow and we managed to score some off that deform as the coastal takes over this has the potential to be a double digit snowstorm as the Euro/Euro EPS/Canadian/RGEM have been alluding to. I’m excited either way, today was one of those days you could “feel” something wintry is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just beautiful for November 15th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Another one sorry done it will play out as Mother Nature wants it to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 hours ago, 2001kx said: Our local news Murgo is notoriously conservative. That says a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I could feel it this afternoon now I can smell it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The Euro- Kuchera ratio -snow map yet again at 0z looks great for CTP. The last few runs of the HRRR look good as well! This is the latest which only takes us to 6pm Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 its starting to look rather impressive on radar looks like its beginning to close.at least I think thats what its called. it looks to have very sharp back edge and no shortage of gulf and now Atlantic moisture feeding in. well at least i think lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I have a felling it may be one of those years. It looks to be active this year hope we all can get the good tracks and big domes . cad to all and big jugs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The only thing this morning is, gotta wonder about surface temps and how they'll play out. I'm sitting at 28f this morning. Five degrees warmer than the 23f that CTP had forecasted for me. High clouds rolled in right before sunset and helped keep radiational cooling at bay overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro- Kuchera ratio -snow map yet again at 0z looks great for CTP. The last few runs of the HRRR look good as well! This is the latest which only takes us to 6pm Thursday. Do you ever sleep in the winter? I'm sitting at 31 here. Hoping precip arrives before 9am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I still can't believe we went from humid summer-like nights to a full fledged winter storm in exactly one month lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: I still can't believe we went from humid summer-like nights to a full fledged winter storm in exactly one month lol I was thinking about that last evening. It often seems like we go from winter to summer overnight, it's nice to have it flip the other way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The latest run of the HRRR says good morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The latest run of the HRRR says good morning: Gotta like that look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said: I have a felling it may be one of those years. It looks to be active this year hope we all can get the good tracks and big domes . cad to all and big jugs this year. i feel the same. If get the moisture in the fall and winter, like we had in the spring and summer, with some cold air we could be in for a wild ride. I'm at 30 degrees, thought we'd be a little cooler this morning. edit- i hadn't read all the posts from this morning, i see others have commented on the temps as well What are your morning thoughts Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 It’s gonna be a good day. Enjoy everyone...no matter how much it piles up. This is what we come together for. Here’s to a great winter of trackin and playin. Nut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Good to see snow breaking out down south in DC Area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: It’s gonna be a good day. Enjoy everyone...no matter how much it piles up. This is what we come together for. Here’s to a great winter of trackin and playin. Nut. Yes sir. I thought about days like this all freaking summer. Double bonus to have it come to us earlier than normal. Couldn't ask for a better group to have fun doing this with. I swear Blizz of 93 tracks for about 21 hours a day this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Good to see snow breaking out down south in DC Area . And yet it's in the teens and raining at Snowshoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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