Central PA Fall 2018

[Flatheadsickness]

its to bad Johnson quit making yard sticks. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z EPS was fantastic again & the 6z NAM also says good morning to CTP!

Again, if you cut these numbers in half or more, I think most of us would be very happy with this first event of the season.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

EUro seems to hold

 

[sauss06]

good morning men. 

[pasnownut]

Wow.  Gotta say trends are looking good for a sizeable start to winter.  6z GFS continues to show the cold holding a little stronger, although still not convinced its enough down here, i'd say the ridge and valley regions look mostly/all frozen.  Euro that blizz posted looks high end and if ever I want to call it king....this could be the time.  Critical thickness just is too far north/west for me to see this, but its close enough that dynamics can help overcome the marginal column (MBY)

Will be a fun day. 

Cant wait to hear all of the complaining at the office....

[sauss06]

Deer hunters may have a white ground for the first time in awhile.

[Atomixwx]

2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

its to bad Johnson quit making yard sticks. 

Maybe for you... 

[Voyager]

WNEP 16 is being EXTREMELY bullish with their forecast this morning. Double digits for all. Not sure I buy it, but these guys are usually quite conservative, so not sure what they're seeing.

[Bubbler86]

WSW is out for Central part of the state even down to the Mason Dixon.  I expect to see some legit 8-12" totals at this point...even in the western part of the LSV. It is the Eskimo Joe Snow Storm of 2018.

[Itstrainingtime]

I miss @heavy_wx and his analysis in here. I never understood a word he said but i could always tell when we were getting the goods. 

Random guess:

• LNS: 2.5"
• MDT: 3.1"
• Canderson/Sauss: 4"
• Blizzard of 93: 4.5"
• UNV: 6"
• MAG: 7"
• Williamsport: 7.5"

[canderson]

CTP had MDT at 2-4”. That’s aggressive from then, keeping up the trend of conservative forecasters pushing all chips in. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Deer hunters may have a white ground for the first time in awhile.

Bear.  Thats next week.  

Deer is monday after turk day.

 

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

WNEP 16 is being EXTREMELY bullish with their forecast this morning. Double digits for all. Not sure I buy it, but these guys are usually quite conservative, so not sure what they're seeing.

look at the Euro blizz posted.  We all know it weighs heavily for many mets.  

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I miss @heavy_wx and his analysis in here. I never understood a word he said but i could always tell when we were getting the goods. 

Random guess:

• LNS: 2.5"
• MDT: 3.1"
• Canderson/Sauss: 4"
• Blizzard of 93: 4.5"
• UNV: 6"
• MAG: 7"
• Williamsport: 7.5"

thats really a reasonable prediction.  You forgot the voyager jackpot though.  10"

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

thats really a reasonable prediction.  You forgot the voyager jackpot though.  10"

I didn't want to start his day off on a bad note.  (Hi Steve!) 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I didn't want to start his day off on a bad note.  (Hi Steve!) 

i should have put a  emoji behind it to let him know i'm kidding....sorta.  I'd throw an 8" on his location as i think poconos and surrounding areas at elevation will spit out some good accum totals as well as they hold onto best position for CAD coupled w/ lift. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

i should have put a  emoji behind it to let him know i'm kidding....sorta.  I'd throw an 8" on his location as i think poconos and surrounding areas at elevation will spit out some good accum totals as well as they hold onto best position for CAD coupled w/ lift. 

I think 8" of so is probably gonna be about the max with this baby...it really looks like about an 8 hour storm give or take followed by some drizzle. There just won't be enough time for amounts to get much above that. 

[Voyager]

I know you guys are kidding and take it all as good fun. If Snedeker is right, though, I just might see that 10 inch total...lol

Seriously though, my feeling and thinking is 3-6 at best for my backyard. If we stayed all snow, double digits might be possible, but I think we flip at some point.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I know you guys are kidding and take it all as good fun. If Snedeker is right, though, I just might see that 10 inch total...lol

Seriously though, my feeling and thinking is 3-6 at best for my backyard. If we stayed all snow, double digits might be possible, but I think we flip at some point.

I think you'll be closer to the 6 but in your range. 

I know nothing though. 

[sauss06]

41 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I miss @heavy_wx and his analysis in here. I never understood a word he said but i could always tell when we were getting the goods. 

Random guess:

• LNS: 2.5"
• MDT: 3.1"
• Canderson/Sauss: 4"
• Blizzard of 93: 4.5"
• UNV: 6"
• MAG: 7"
• Williamsport: rain

Corrected for ya  @Wmsptwx

37 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Bear.  Thats next week.  

Deer is monday after turk day.

 

i know, but it looks to stay below avg temp, the snow may stick around for Deer beer camp

[Wmsptwx]

Haha I see that Sauss...I'd be okay with rain if it came down in buckets with 50 mph winds....now were talking.

[Voyager]

12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...

[Wmsptwx]

Pretty sure we are all rain at that point anyways.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...

And I think that's why this is only an 8 hour storm. 

[Voyager]

7 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

And I think that's why this is only an 8 hour storm. 

3k is out to 37 now and...no dryslot, and in fact some super heavy precip moving north. Vast difference between the two wrt to sim radar.

[MAG5035]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...

Dry slotting was mentioned in this morning’s CTP disco as a potential limiter along with the uncertainty in p-types. It’s def something to keep an eye on especially in eastern PA given the surface running tightly up the coastline. Storm evolution actually progged as a more Miller B type evolution.. thus the initial front running shot of moderate-hvy precip and potential slot as the lows transfer. 

There will then be a deform band that forms as the coastal low takes over and the aforementioned tight track up the coastline would favor the deform further back in the central counties. The damage could already be done up front though in the Sus valley as we will have supported cold air in place and I think we will have a robust front end that should wet bulb into a primarily frozen first part of the storm. If the coastal low track ends up being somewhat off the coast, then that deform might focus more towards the Sus Valley. 

So ultimately I think our whole region is pretty well locked into our first sizeable winter event of the season incoming (at least advisory worthy). The degree of mixing plus eventual storm evolution and positioning of the deform band as the coastal takes over will determine if and where we see a much more significant impact. The potential is definitely there for a corridor in our region to get ripped with a big snowstorm. Some similarities to Nov 14-15, 1995... State College had 15” from that storm. I think the difference at least looking at the reanalysis maps is that one looked to be more of a pure coastal storm and perhaps was a bit colder. 

[canderson]

Honestly, I put all my money on deform bands hitting within 10 miles of MDT. It seems the past 6 or 7 years we are deform band kings. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I think 8" of so is probably gonna be about the max with this baby...it really looks like about an 8 hour storm give or take followed by some drizzle. There just won't be enough time for amounts to get much above that. 

spot on bud.  Agreed but hope were proven wrong.

[pasnownut]

53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Dry slotting was mentioned in this morning’s CTP disco as a potential limiter along with the uncertainty in p-types. It’s def something to keep an eye on especially in eastern PA given the surface running tightly up the coastline. Storm evolution actually progged as a more Miller B type evolution.. thus the initial front running shot of moderate-hvy precip and potential slot as the lows transfer. 

There will then be a deform band that forms as the coastal low takes over and the aforementioned tight track up the coastline would favor the deform further back in the central counties. The damage could already be done up front though in the Sus valley as we will have supported cold air in place and I think we will have a robust front end that should wet bulb into a primarily frozen first part of the storm. If the coastal low track ends up being somewhat off the coast, then that deform might focus more towards the Sus Valley. 

So ultimately I think our whole region is pretty well locked into our first sizeable winter event of the season incoming (at least advisory worthy). The degree of mixing plus eventual storm evolution and positioning of the deform band as the coastal takes over will determine if and where we see a much more significant impact. The potential is definitely there for a corridor in our region to get ripped with a big snowstorm. Some similarities to Nov 14-15, 1995... State College had 15” from that storm. I think the difference at least looking at the reanalysis maps is that one looked to be more of a pure coastal storm and perhaps was a bit colder. 

Yeah, gotta look at the total storm evolution.  Like you stated, dryslot is and has been part of the equation.  Wraparound/deformation will likely pad totals from front end thumpage. but to Voyagers point, dryslots are storm killers....especially in southern tier.

[Voyager]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, gotta look at the total storm evolution.  Like you stated, dryslot is and has been part of the equation.  Wraparound/deformation will likely pad totals from front end thumpage. but to Voyagers point, dryslots are storm killers....especially in southern tier.

From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help.