pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Voyager said: From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help. Cant argue that for a second, and thats why I've been nervous for this event. 12z NAM nest shows less front end and more backend action. Heartbreak city for some (me). But parsing through the details still doesnt negate the fact that it is a rather nice kickoff to the winter for many of us in the region. All bonus love for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Glad to be back. Let this one overperform. Trends are looking good. Good luck everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The gang is all back together. Let the winter months commence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This will be a good start for our winter season. What is a surprise...the models seem to be in agreement. I got a new Kioti this fall. Looking forward to using it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE. Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is: https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE. Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is: https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984 That is a good call...not too conservative and enough to alert the public that tomorrow is not going to be a normal day/kids are at home. I think somewhere in the Western Edge of the LSV, Western Cumberland or Northern Franklin county, there are some 8+" reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 23 minutes ago, canderson said: The gang is all back together. Let the winter months commence! Hi All! I'm back too. I've been reading all the posts while on my annual vacation down in Florida (near Port St. Lucie) where temps have been in the sunny low to mid 80's every day...lol. I'm scheduled to fly home tomorrow evening! As much as I want to see snow falling I might choose to wait it out in Atlanta at my son's place and return Friday morning. Depending on road conditions tomorrow evening I don't want to make my ride have to drive unnecessarily. Like many have said I look forward to the upcoming winter season and lots of storm discussion, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: That is a good call...not too conservative and enough to alert the public that tomorrow is not going to be a normal day/kids are at home. I think somewhere in the Western Edge of the LSV, Western Cumberland or Northern Franklin county, there are some 8+" reports. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Let's see what the EURO says today. Been pretty consistent on keeping the cold air around but worry about the upper levels seem to want to rise temps quickly. Anyways, It is November 15th tomorrow so who can complain right now. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, paweather said: Let's see what the EURO says today. Been pretty consistent on keeping the cold air around but worry about the upper levels seem to want to rise temps quickly. Anyways, It is November 15th tomorrow so who can complain right now. :-) I think we'll all find a way ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: I think we'll all find a way ... LOL, yep. I am just excited to see the first flakes whether that is a dusting or something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE. Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is:https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: . Ouch, his tweet does not jive with the other post. A "tornado" of disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, canderson said: Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE. Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is: https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984 i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map) or maybe im just a misfit...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Ukmet and Euro look cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Ukmet and Euro look cold. . great, Then I'll hold out some hope that we can eek out a little more of the solid precip forms instead of the liquid ones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Anyone have euro output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event. First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow. Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west). Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event. Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987. Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively . Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved. With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map) or maybe im just a misfit...... Me too. The way Canderson worded it, I expected to see almost all of CTP with 5-8 and perhaps Turnpike to I-78 and south in the 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Here is the UK from the MA forum. Paralyzed much. I also saw the Euro shows snow still on the ground for thanksgiving for much of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 37 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Anyone have euro output Historic verbatim..cant post right now but view map I posted last night and add a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Sorry for misleading you guys with my 5-8 for the majority. I clearly was cutting off the eastern side of the region too much, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Euro is a big hit. Put simply the snowmap (10:1) has virtually the entire state in 6”+ with roughly the central third of the state 12”+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Euro is a big hit. Put simply the snowmap (10:1) has virtually the entire state in 6”+ with roughly the central third of the state 12”+ Yup, Kuchera shows more for center of state, less for east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Interesting battle setting up between the Euro/Ukie against the rest. Up until about 2 years ago you could take that combo to the bank. Not so much last year...who will grab the early lead in winter 2018-19?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, Voyager said: Me too. The way Canderson worded it, I expected to see almost all of CTP with 5-8 and perhaps Turnpike to I-78 and south in the 2-5. he's just trying to be an overachiever....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Where's GEM lining up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The Euro and UKMET are typically a deadly combo when they agree. Can they really be this far off this close in? I’m in far NW Cumberland right on the other side of Perry county and most maps are telling me 2”-5” but both these models easily put me in double digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 49 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event. First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow. Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west). Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event. Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987. Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively . Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved. With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate! Uhh...no FUN in that pal. BOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Where's GEM lining up? I think it was kind of warm like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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