Wmsptwx Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: But you still get all hush hush when secretly tryin to hog all of our snow..... Lol, you are the man...hope you see some flakes before week's end... definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: The Weather Channel is going to start the alarm with their Euro model graphic showing heavy show in SCPA. They are liking the Euro. Showing us in Central Pa having a shot at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 30 minutes ago, pawatch said: They are liking the Euro. Showing us in Central Pa having a shot at snow. easy to see why. From free panels it looks marginally cold enough for that area. Closed off at 500 and 850's support western 2/3's and northern pa cold enough for white gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol, you are the man...hope you see some flakes before week's end... definitely possible. Still early for us down here. Although you can be snow starved, its still climatalogically easier to snow in your local. Geographically is where you struggle. I'll make a deal w/ ya...you give us some cold and we'll give you some precip (although you look just fine for this one)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Trends have definitely been favorable for wintry precipitation across Central PA especially in higher elevations. It's encouraging that the system has trended to an earlier arrival since that allows for more cold air to funnel in from the high to our north before it exits east. I would definitely be concerned about ice at this point if I lived in the UNV-AOO-JST corridor down through the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Lol. Shenandoah Valley. Did we take Winchester and lump them in with us over the summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Lol. Shenandoah Valley. Did we take Winchester and lump them in with us over the summer? They wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just about every model trended colder today with the storm later this week. Most of us should see some snow or frozen precip on Thursday. The snow maps are most likely over doing the snow totals. The track of the low looks favorable & if the timing is right, we could cash in & get on the snow board this week. Let’s see if the 0z runs tonight continue the positive trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Just about every model trended colder today with the storm later this week. Most of us should see some snow or frozen precip on Thursday. The snow maps are most likely over doing the snow totals. The track of the low looks favorable & if the timing is right, we could cash in & get on the snow board this week. Let’s see if the 0z runs tonight continue the positive trends! Where is everyone?!? This is our first legit chance at frozen precip. For now, I’ll just reply to my own post! The 0z NAM came in colder & more favorable for frozen for the LSV & all of CTP. Even if we cut those amounts in half or more, I think we could all live with that to get things started this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The GFS & Canadian are looking good for winter weather on Thursday! Here is the 0z GFS with both the standard 10-1 ratio map, which is highly unlikely, & also the Kuchera ratio GFS, which is more realistic. The 0z Canadian is just a standard 10-1 ratio, but it agrees with the favorable storm track for CTP & has the same frozen precip coverage as the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 lets do this I will be up and ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The 0z Euro & 6z NAM continued to up the ante for CTP! Yes, the Euro map is Kuchera ratio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 well **** look at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Where is everyone?!? This is our first legit chance at frozen precip. For now, I’ll just reply to my own post! The 0z NAM came in colder & more favorable for frozen for the LSV & all of CTP. Even if we cut those amounts in half or more, I think we could all live with that to get things started this season. i want PINK!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, sauss06 said: well **** look at that. Yes, & the overnight models that I posted All agree at this time ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS & Canadian are looking good for winter weather on Thursday! Here is the 0z GFS with both the standard 10-1 ratio map, which is highly unlikely, & also the Kuchera ratio GFS, which is more realistic. The 0z Canadian is just a standard 10-1 ratio, but it agrees with the favorable storm track for CTP & has the same frozen precip coverage as the GFS tonight. I really should get back on WXbell...miss them maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 I'd just say proceed w/ caution. its still climatologically "early" for some of us, and the maps are really perty and wanna suck me in like a hoover....but its a marginal airmass and somewhat antecedent cold in its presentation, and barely cold enough at best. Razors edge for SE. Like Blizz suggested, cut totals WAY back for fringe areas. Major taint and if you look at the 6z GFS, it suggests alot of mixing issues. Still time and sure is exciting nontheless. Very happy to be where we are regardless the outcome. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'd just say proceed w/ caution. its still climatologically "early" for some of us, and the maps are really perty and wanna suck me in like a hoover....but its a marginal airmass and somewhat antecedent cold in its presentation, and barely cold enough at best. Razors edge for SE. Like Blizz suggested, cut totals WAY back for fringe areas. Major taint and if you look at the 6z GFS, it suggests alot of mixing issues. Still time and sure is exciting nontheless. Very happy to be where we are regardless the outcome. Nut I agree brotha. I just had a text from a friend all fired up, i said be thankful just to see snow, accumulation would be a bonus. Its great to be back in the game though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 My feeling for LSV is 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet going over to light rain and drizzle.However if that ULL passes south of us and can reinvigorate the low off the coast, we could get a deform band to set up and add more snow.Just happy to be tracking a legit threat. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'd just say proceed w/ caution. its still climatologically "early" for some of us, and the maps are really perty and wanna suck me in like a hoover....but its a marginal airmass and somewhat antecedent cold in its presentation, and barely cold enough at best. Razors edge for SE. Like Blizz suggested, cut totals WAY back for fringe areas. Major taint and if you look at the 6z GFS, it suggests alot of mixing issues. Still time and sure is exciting nontheless. Very happy to be where we are regardless the outcome. Nut Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: My feeling for LSV is 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet going over to light rain and drizzle. However if that ULL passes south of us and can reinvigorate the low off the coast, we could get a deform band to set up and add more snow. Just happy to be tracking a legit threat. . There was some discussion last night about the deform band, and that is a potential wildcard in how much the final tally is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now. And the weather seems it changed with a snap of a finger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: And the weather seems it changed with a snap of a finger. . Thankfully, mercifully... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Seems to me that NWS is playing it down too much as it pertains to the LSV. Especially West Shore and back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now. amen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Seems to me that NWS is playing it down too much as it pertains to the LSV. Especially West Shore and back. Unfortunately that is a wise choice. HP in NE would help CCB into eastern locals early in the game, but verbatim the evolution is wonky, and we lose the critical levels until the UUL pops and wind/levels again become more favorable. I'd pay with all of the moolah in Sauss's wallet for this to happen in a few weeks from now when December is rockin, cause this would likely lay down the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Unfortunately that is a wise choice. HP in NE would help CCB into eastern locals early in the game, but verbatim the evolution is wonky, and we lose the critical levels until the UUL pops and wind/levels again become more favorable. I'd pay with all of the moolah in Sauss's wallet for this to happen in a few weeks from now when December is rockin, cause this would likely lay down the goods. I have December 15-16 for first accumulating snow 3" or more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 BTW 3" up at cabin last night. Friend lives 1 mile from my place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just wanted to stop by and give a congrats to you all in here. Looks like the first advisory level event of the season is shaping up for most the the area. If you're above 1000', you might pop a warning level event from this. November events are like March events, only better. We're at the start of the season, playing with house money and losing sun angle and daylight length each day. Whatever happens, this will be fun because we're just at the start of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Unfortunately that is a wise choice. HP in NE would help CCB into eastern locals early in the game, but verbatim the evolution is wonky, and we lose the critical levels until the UUL pops and wind/levels again become more favorable. I'd pay with all of the moolah in Sauss's wallet for this to happen in a few weeks from now when December is rockin, cause this would likely lay down the goods. That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall. Giddy up, kids! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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