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Bob Chill

March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

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It sucks at this time of year when you have more diurnal convention and a weaker jet.  It's a double wammy, and makes the setup more prone to convective feedback lows as well as allowing them to have a bigger impact on the outcome.

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks good! this storm is looking like all are other storms this winter. T-2. If we dont see heavy snow....i doubt anyone gets 3 in late March

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

We do all time fails well.

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7 minutes ago, peribonca said:

So the Euro has almost ten times as much snow for DC as the GFS.... 

Euro really needs to run more than twice a day... Perhaps that could avoid some forecast snafus by making it known sooner if one run was a fluke. I think I recall the storm last March in NYC where I believe the Euro had NYC getting like 20 inches at 12z. That evening everything else started showing major red flags for Manhattan, but most mets just stuck with the Euro, eventually going down with the ship the next morning when snow quickly flipped to sleet. City ended up with like 4 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet

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11 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

It can be like throwing darts on a moving target. 

And damn those new maps...RIC beats DCA again.

Sorry for the banter...we'll see what the GEFS do. I mean, we expect a dropoff, but by how much? Not sure I'll be up for the EC.

Just gotta see how it breaks. The main thing I saw on the 0z runs is the tucked slp isn't so tucked so naturally the best banding goes east with it. Is that a real shift or just a blip? Seeing all the models so far kinda do the same thing so you can't call anyone out. Lol. 

I originally wanted 4" then saw the trends and was like woah...6" might be easy and a well placed band can give me 10". I thought the euro was probably overdone and said as much after the run. Just gotta let things happen and hope for a band to park for a couple hours.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

Is the decrease in precip because the models think the low won't get tucked in as much? And if that's the case, would it even matter what we're seeing to to the west and south?

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Yea you can’t really fault ppl for interpreting scientific model output lol. Its probably the negative tone that ruffles feathers the most.  It’s an odd storm so conservative forecasts were probably the best ones but there’s still a chance the best model in the world is right.  I’ll take the 3-4” and call it a winter if that’s the case. We have absolutely no control over it.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just gotta see how it breaks. The main thing I saw on the 0z runs is the tucked slp isn't so tucked so naturally the best banding goes east with it. Is that a real shift or just a blip? Seeing all the models so far kinda do the same thing so you can't call anyone out. Lol. 

I originally wanted 4" then saw the trends and was like woah...6" might be easy and a well placed band can give me 10". I thought the euro was probably overdone and said as much after the run. Just gotta let things happen and hope for a band to park for a couple hours.  

WxMan1, why hate on Richmond. We are MA too. We do not make the weather, it does and is what it is. The banding will set up and we will all know tomorrow where that shall be. Congrats to those in the MA that are so fortunate to be under such bands!! Enjoy like there is no tomorrow!!  :)

 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is the decrease in precip because the models think the low won't get tucked in as much? And if that's the case, would it even matter what we're seeing to to the west and south?

Perhaps no it wouldn’t matter.  But I would think the metros, DC especially, could do better than 2 inches.  But what do I know. Nothing.  It would just really suck.  It does answer those who complain “why aren’t we under a warning yet” why is LWX being so conservative”..well they went all in with their most recent snow maps.  And they will have to absorb the backlash if it fails.  Because it can fail at any time without warning.  They know this.  No one would have thought just 12 hours ago the 0z runs would deliver a digital fail.  

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18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If this does happen to fail it would go down as one of the all time great fails. From a Euro projected 12 hours prior HECS to T-2?  I still don’t see it going down that way looking at the radar west and south.  

Nah what's happened is the euro has turned into pure evil this is nothing new it guaranteed me a HECS last March and i saw 5" and on March 7th this year it guaranteed a MECS and i got 6"

 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

     The HREF takes the most recent NAM3, HiRes Window ARW, HiRes Window NMMB, and HiRes Window ARW2 (effectively the NSSL WRF)  and the previous runs of each and aggregates them into means and probabilities.

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It says ensemble max.  Assume that is the 1-10 chance for max snow maybe?

          It's simply the max value from the 8 members at each point.

 

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10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Nah what's happened is the euro has turned into pure evil this is nothing new it guaranteed me a HECS last March and i saw 5" and on March 7th this year it guaranteed a MECS and i got 6"

 

At least you got 6", lol

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It's already below freezing pretty much everywhere and accum snow will start well before sunrise so there will be a base before the sun comes up. Much of the precip during daylight hours is on the cold side of the low so it should be most well formed dendrites and not the gloppy missiles you see during waa precip.  There are some factors on our favor no matter how you slice it. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Just hug the changing every hour HRRR :)

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.thumb.png.4e400b2bd9e5872077777dd387f7ceda.png

I'll take that and run with it. Even cut in half, 3 inches. My bar was one inch. I never really believed in all the inflated totals LWX was trotting out lol. I am pretty sure I'll see an inch of snow from this, maybe two.

I do however congratulate those who did cash in already. Despite the angst in here, I still think wxtrix will end up with at least a foot of snow. The north tier will get 12 to 18 too. NE MD, Harford, will get in on 15 to 20. Those are all favored locations.

I'll happily take my inch of snow and run with it, and be happy for all those who get a lot more.

We REALLY, REALLY need to give this storm a chance. Its not even 2 am yet!

Let's wait til 9am before giving up on this. 

All I am saying............is give it a chance.

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27 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Check out the radars! Its nowcast time! We are all gonna get plenty of snow. 

This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS!

Doppler Radar National Mosaic

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS!

Central Great Lakes sector loop

We are going to get plenty of snow.

A few short hours from now we will all be in snowy bliss as this gels.

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32 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

WxMan1, why hate on Richmond. We are MA too. We do not make the weather, it does and is what it is. The banding will set up and we will all know tomorrow where that shall be. Congrats to those in the MA that are so fortunate to be under such bands!! Enjoy like there is no tomorrow!!  :)

 

Oh no, no hate at all! I used to live there, 10+ years while working at AKQ. Love it down there. Got to experience many snow snubs during the time i was there. Seemed their fortunes changed when I moved away, lol! 

It's not hate. It's more like, "why couldn't RIC jackpot when I lived there?" :)

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. I dont give two craps what a model is saying right now. Just LOOK AT THIS!

Doppler Radar National Mosaic

 

 

 

For those of us in central MD and further east, it's all about the Low getting tucked in, it seems...and it sounds like (and please correct me someone if I'm wrong), no matter what's going on jist to the southwest...a low further off the coast won't capture the moisture as much...so it would make little difference what we're seeing now because we just don't know, smh

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Verrrry slow moving strong bowling ball may be throwing things off a bit. It certainly looks a little bit slower to move east. Don't know the implications of that. These beasts are so unpredictable. Let's just see what happens and enjoy what we have.

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SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. 

Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. 

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