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March 23-24 Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Malacka still trying to pull it north, I see. Think Chicago Storm and RC pretty much got this one down as does most guidance. I'll be watching as it looks like a fun one.

Hey either way, it's all good. After all, it is almost April, and Chicagoland already had it's big snow for the season.

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You all are greedy up north. Lol. I haven't been ground zero all winter for storms. Everyone has been a near miss within like one county. Euro has great agreement with its ensembles. Come on Euro! Praying this south shift starts up on the 12z runs

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06z HRRRx goes ape****, and deposits 1.8-2.0" of precip over the nose of Iowa into parts of northwest IL, with most of that in the form of snow.

ih1uhf.jpg

 

DVN pretty bullish with the convection potential, saying thundersnow is pretty likely.  

 Thunder-snow very likely with accumulation rates well
over an inch an hour at times. Heavy snowfall rates will also result
on snow covered and slushy roads with risk of heavier snow access
maybe 30 plus miles further south for later shift to reassess.

Tonight...bands of rain to mix with and change to snow over most of
the northern 1/2 or more of the region in the evening hours. As
mentioned above, the locations for heavy snow will be a major
challenge with large dendritic growth in strong forcing and thunder-
snow almost guaranteed up to I-80 suggested. Half dollar sized
flakes will be common with snowfall accumulation rates of a half
inch to well over an inch an hour.

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25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

06z HRRRx goes ape****, and deposits 1.8-2.0" of precip over the nose of Iowa into parts of northwest IL, with most of that in the form of snow.

 

 

DVN pretty bullish with the convection potential, saying thundersnow is pretty likely.  

  

Damn, that gradient on the northeast side is the definition of weenie heartbreak if you're on the wrong side.   Looks like 25 miles between nothing and 2'.

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3 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Unless the NAM is onto something think I'm gonna struggle down here for my first warning criteria snow of the season.  06Z GFS has nudged back a bit NE but cuts off the big snow just to my SW by 10-20 miles.  Low levels seem to saturate by mid-morning but because the event may be mostly during the daylight hours think I'm gonna have to contend with warm air between 700-800mb's for awhile.  It could get sketchy.  Maybe the 00Z runs with sampling will be able to narrow down the track due to strength but these warm tongues, especially during the day this time of year can get aggressive.  1-3 of slopfeast right now my call hoping to bust towards the NAM :weenie: 

Maybe not warning criteria, but a blend of the hi-res models would give you a 4-5" paste job. Meanwhile, I'll take my DAB and like it. What a cutoff.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Good luck to the lottery winners with this one.   Interesting that the predominant pattern for winterstorms this season for our sub has been storms with very narrow jackpot areas... most only 2 or 3 counties wide.   

Ha - very diplomatic...I would have used a different term...like "frustrating as ****". :) 

Not sure if this is a La Nina thing, or something else, or just random chance.  Hard to believe it's just random chance, given how often it has occurred this winter.

This winter has been bizarre in so many ways...the feeling of so much potential...but ended up failing miserably. A couple of weeks of cold around the holidays...but paltry snowfall during that time (and even further upstream).  That, combined with UHI around here, turned a potential record-breaking arctic outbreak (intensity and duration) into just a garden variety cold spell.

Then, when the snow finally came, we got 16" of snow in 9 days in early Feb (but even that was a very narrow area...just happened to be in it this time)...peaking at a depth of 14"...but then it melted 3 days later. Somehow ORD ended up with 20" of snow in Feb...but only 6 days with 5"+ snow depth...and even with that failure, the monthly snowfall was about 2x normal. So, the one time we happened to get snow, it was gone right away.  Then, the past 15-20 days have generally been chilly and a somewhat "wintry feel" given the time of year...which, ironically enough, would have been great in many years, as it would have been able to maintain snow cover in the rural areas of NE IL...if we actually had a snowpack to preserve.  The irony is laughable. It is not unprecedented to have snow cover well into March near here...example March 2008, when Madison WI had snow cover for the entire month. In the end, the SSW event occurred a bit too late to save the winter.  Another example of unrealized potential.

When all is said and done - strangely enough ORD will probably end up close to 90% of normal seasonal snowfall, with near normal temps for DJFM...all with only 3 weeks of wintry conditions (2 weeks around the holidays, then one week in early Feb). It's a cruel joke because this winter failed so miserably, yet also manages to speak to our horrific winter climo at the same time.  The fact that such a failure of a winter ends up being near normal when looking at the 2 big statistics of total snowfall and mean temp is funny...although of course I would argue that those 2 statistics are poor judges of a winter's feel as a whole...but I digress. 

Bottom line - your point is well taken.  Everything about this winter has said "fail" in every way possible.

Back to the storm...post obs and pics!!  And good luck hawkeye and cyclone and others in the path...could be a fun one.  

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I just noticed that Mike Ryan wrote a novel for his overnight short term discussion, but one of the highlights is that Indystorm may get a little thundrsnow:

Cross sections continue to show a few hours from late morning into the afternoon where strong vertical velocities and 
moisture interact with the dendritic growth zone in the presence of conditional instability. With the deformation axis 
likely to be nearby at the same time...this is the time period where the heaviest snow rates are likely to occur and a 
potential for a few rumbles of thunder within the heaviest snow bands will exist.

Also, there could be some 30-40 mph wind gusts. Those pancakes hitting a person in the face at that speed would hurt.

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This is gonna be a nice one out here. 1-2” hr rates, potential thundersnow and winds? DVN currently has me pegged at 10” in in the point forecast. If current forecast verifies, this might be our biggest snow since 2014 and maybe even 2011. Less than 24 hours and essentially in the bullseye. What could go wrong?

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5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

This is gonna be a nice one out here. 1-2” hr rates, potential thundersnow and winds? DVN currently has me pegged at 10” in in the point forecast. If current forecast verifies, this might be our biggest snow since 2014 and maybe even 2011. Less than 24 hours and essentially in the bullseye. What could go wrong?

Famous last words. lol

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9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Draw a straight line from DBQ to LAF and you have a solid idea of where the 12z NAM/GFS show the cutoff. 

Where do you stand if models shift north by 40 miles?

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The morning model runs are looking good for CR/IC/QC.  We are in the southern part of the heavy snow band on the GFS and NAM, while the ICON, HRRRx, HRRR, RDPS, and GDPS are all bullseyes.

The big question is.... what does the euro do?  It has led the way sw, but it needs to stop with the 00z run.

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Well the 12z runs are....interesting. GFS/CMC basically cancel the storm at the IL/IN state line while the NAM's say damn the torpedoes and blast IND, CIN, and others with 7-11" or more. Haven't seen the Euro yet. 

Oh, and we're inside 24 hours. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Bless the soul of anyone who is trying to forecast this thing in IN or OH. Northern Iowa folk, congrats on the lock!

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39 minutes ago, Baum said:

Where do you stand if models shift north by 40 miles?

Probably JUST on the good side of the cutoff. With the agreement of the cutoff line on the GFS/NAM essentially within 1-2 through our area, I am not holding my breath. But we all know how the models have been handling things this year... 

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22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

A shut-out at ORD and a T here seems like a good call.

Sharp gradient as you head south, with 6-9"+ probably in the main axis, and placement in the vicinity of the 12/29 and 2/5 events...maybe a bit north.

Gonna ride this as a final.

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4 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Cleared out a chunk of SW Ohio counties. Few advisories and a warning.

image.jpeg

Interesting that the county I'm in (Wayne County, IN) has been dropped but the county to the north is under a Watch, county to the West is under a Watch, county to the south is under an Advisory. Seriously, how can the county to the north be under a Watch ? Does anyone else find that map odd in Eastern IN ? Oh yeah, and I'm not under even an Advisory while 2 counties south is under a Warning !

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10 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

Question - 10:1 ratios ambitious for this set up? Asking more in regards to the daytime hours tomorrow here in the southern part of the sub-forum.

DVN mentioned 7-10:1 over here, and much of our snow will fall overnight through 10am.

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