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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

was jan 2005 a miller B. I rememember it started off in modeling as a Miller A lol....then it became a northern stream event but i remember scoring 4 or so inches. Of course New England got nuked

yes, from range it looked like an STJ dominant system that phased...then it lost the stj component and became a clipper that redeveloped and bombed.  We did about as well as possible given that setup with a general 3-5" across northern VA and DC area and 4-8" across Maryland.  Still many complained because New England got nuked and we only got a high end advisory/low end warning level event.  

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not going to happen for us.  I've already accepted our fate.  There's but only so much trending at this lead time and I think we've seen the peak.  If I was in Baltimore and NE MD, I'd say hold on...hold on...I'm not being pessimistic, I'm just being real.  Our best hope is to score on the backside and get a slushy inch or two.  

I dont think DC is totally out of the game yet. Those of us to the west are done though.

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

its not unreasonable to see this shift a little s/sw, as the couple runs have shown that.  

true, but i'm basing it off of what's currently depicted.  if it trends south, yes, we will be in the game.  for now, it looks like a northeast maryland/bmore/canton/ripken-ville and north setup.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Yes.  Implying quicker transfer and weaker primary....HR 54 looks pretty nice...

Maybe and Inverted trof feature through DC....that kind of analysis is above my pay grade. CCB in SE PA

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GFS seems like it (hopefully) is coming around to the NAM. Hopefully the NAM trends a little bit earlier/south and DC can get in on some decent action and the heaviest slips just a bit more southwest to really hammer Baltimore. I agree with PSUHoffman that I want to see everyone cash in. It's been a brutal winter in Baltimore but arguably still worse in the DC area, and every time we get a huge snowstorm, Baltimore tends to always end up with a bit more snow. 

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Best lift on GFS is north of NAM’s by 50-75 miles. Advisory snows for Baltimore to MD line. Winter Storm warning into SE PA. Pretty close to something more significant. Snow tv south of I-70 latitude. Maybe an inch in spots across Eastern Howard and Northern AA counties. Starting to see how this will evolve. We’re closing inside 36 hours when this all goes down.


.

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6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

GFS seems like it (hopefully) is coming around to the NAM. Hopefully the NAM trends a little bit earlier/south and DC can get in on some decent action and the heaviest slips just a bit more southwest to really hammer Baltimore. I agree with PSUHoffman that I want to see everyone cash in. It's been a brutal winter in Baltimore but arguably still worse in the DC area, and every time we get a huge snowstorm, Baltimore tends to always end up with a bit more snow. 

qpf looks to bring eastern shore into the game.  slight tick sw as I was suggesting.  to me the LP seemed to be a little better organized early on after transfer which helped NW/SW folks a bit. 

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18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

5H closes off further North than the NAM, hence the CCB being further north.  Need that off the Delmarva and the GFS does it off central Jersey

I gather in order for that to happen we need more digging from the shortwave?  Stronger block?  Or h5 to go negative earlier?

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Crazy thread here Twitter , you have to go to the thread to see what I mean.

I think the basis of HM's tweet was to suggest to use each model based on its inherent physics, with this system coming up maybe the NAM might be more realistic. Thats my read on it but could be wrong, certainly makes sense though. You be the judge.

 

 

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Spent a couple of hours looking over the models and typing this up only to have it get buried within minutes as the NAM twins came out and upped the ante. So dammit I am going to repost it so hopefully more then just a handful of people can read my meaningless dribble. :) Apologies to those that have already suffered through it. 

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just some thoughts on the storm this Wed. and the possible impacts for DC/Balt. At this point I am sure most are of the opinion that any somewhat meaningful snowfall will be confined to extreme NE MD at best with the cities possible getting some mercy flakes or trace. I am of the opinion though that the odds are somewhat favorable that in fact we do better then current models are projecting. Obviously Baltimore would have better chances then DC, its just the nature of the beast with the type of system we are dealing with where extra latitude is a factor. 

Normally when it comes to Miller B's we are SOL as the transfer from the primary over to the coastal occurs through or even north of our region. But if there is any setup we are going to score in it is this one where we see the secondary low pressure initiate far to our south as opposed to the typical off the VA/MD waters we see. This in my mind is important because we are giving the coastal low that much more time to develop as it runs up the coast to our region as opposed to hoping for a 6 hr bombegenisis directly off our coast.

The big reason we are seeing the NE solutions for snowfall is that we see a lackadaisical transfer from the primary low in the lakes to our coastal low making it just a touch too late for our region as CCB (cold conveyor belt) snows form just as the coastal is exiting our region. Now the big thing to watch for in regards to the progression of the transfer is the strength of the lows (lakes and coastal). We originally start with the stronger primary (lakes) and with a much weaker secondary (coastal). Now as the transfer occurs the primary will continually weaken and the secondary will continue to gain strength. Only once we see the secondary become the stronger feature will we begin to see CCB snows start developing. And at this point even with the farther south low initiation we see such a slow transfer that we don't see this flip with the lows until the coastal is off our shores as it then begins to rapidly intensify. Again this is what we typically see when it comes to Miller B's which is pretty much a no win scenario for the cities. So this is very plausible. 

But from flipping through a bunch of models and their different runs I do believe they all may be moving towards a slightly different solution which in fact would put the DC/Balt corridor in play. Now I have to speak in generalities here because the models have been somewhat jumpy and back in forth with the features in play so I am not going to be citing specifics. But the general broad overall trends suggest to me we may actually see a quicker deepening of our coastal low farther south then currently projected. This would hopefully mean that we see the coastal surpass the primary in strength sooner/farther south allowing the CCB to begin forming sooner and in time for our region.

Now part of my reasoning involves the Meso models which I tend to shy away from at longer ranges. But in this case they may be appropriate. What I have seen is that generally they seem to be more aggressive then the globals on a quicker strengthening of our coastal farther south. Now mesos can get a little wonky at range on occasion as well as be overly aggressive with explosive development of lows. But with what I am concerned with and/or looking at is the initial early stages of the development of the low so I am fairly comfortable with that.  And in fact they may have a better handle on that period of time with their finer resolution then the globals. Now all that said, I would still normally keep my mouth shut because I have been burned far to often by them. But when I now am starting to see some small hints from the globals to a quicker intensification farther south then that gets my attention.

If the current general setup stays roughly the same on the models (never a sure thing) and in fact we do see a quicker intensification of the coastal (as the mesos suggest) then I have to believe at least Balt, if not DC as well, actually is in play for something more then what the models currently suggest. I for one will be watching the globals with interest the next couple runs to see if they actually start noticeably picking up on this quicker intensification instead of just hinting at it.

 

 

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