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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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What a difficult forecast...The NAMS are obviously overdone with the marginal temperatures we are gonna have but it obviously gets some of us in the CCB when other models don’t. Got to see the GfS and euro take a bigger step towards this for me to really believe it. Currently I’d call for 1-3 wet inches in northern Baltimore, Harford and Cecil counties with just a mix from Baltimore city-south

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I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing.

So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score, if everything goes just right with steady SN+ rates.

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Just now, Fozz said:

I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing.

So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score.

Probably. I've gotta say, that's quite the deathband though

nam3km_ref_uv10m_neus_51.thumb.png.433bf37c55336d2208880c0ffc90cac8.png

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing.

So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score, if everything goes just right with steady SN+ rates.

It comes in at night though.  If a couple of inches falls before daybreak... that would help a lot

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If the 3km NAM verified with its depiction, you would certainly see 1-3” around BWI, 2-5” Southern Baltimore County, 4-8” Northern Baltimore and Harford County with 5-10” over Cecil. This is looking like a classic Miller B evolution for Mid Atlantic. System will be intensifying quickly at our latitude. Potomac River to the NE in for some snow, but the real game will likely lie to the NE of the sub forum. Minor shift to the southwest could put a better precip potential towards burbs of DC, so something to watch, but I think areas I mentioned really need to keep an eye on this.


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This is how you get what the 3km is selling. Intense H85 frontogenesis focused over the NE quadrant of the state. H7 isn’t bad either over the area, so you have the two working in tandem. Where ever that frontogen sets up is where the best banding will occur within the CCB. Right now, it’s focused Baltimore to the NE. Something to keep an eye on.

IMG_0180.JPG



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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B.  

RGEM is hillarious....you have a 1000 low right on Occean and precip amounts are like a 1014mb clipper

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B.  

the worst Miller B possible is if Baltimore gets nailed and we get skunked. Maybe this would raise Mitchnick from the dead?

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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B.  

i'm out of this one except for snow tv.  the setup is too far north as depicted, but i could see why northeast md would be interested.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

speaking of....where is he?

 

He went poof a long time ago??

he asked for a pattern change because cold and dry wasnt working....then we got record heat for February...and havent heard from him since

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Just now, 87storms said:

i'm out of this one except for snow tv.  the setup is too far north as depicted, but i could see why northeast md would be interested.

its not unreasonable to see this shift a little s/sw, as the couple runs have shown that.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

he asked for a pattern change because cold and dry wasnt working....then we got record heat for February...and havent heard from him since

bummer.  Hope he comes out of hibernation to have some fun.  

And thank you for the new post style.  It is appreciated, and enjoyed by many. 

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B.  

Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game.  You know this.  Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better.  Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big.  As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare.  Feb 1978 had such a gradient.  That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did.  That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar.  All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did.  I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over.  I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game.  You know this.  Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better.  Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big.  As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare.  Feb 1978 had such a gradient.  That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did.  That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar.  All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did.  I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over.  I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together.  

was jan 2005 a miller B. I rememember it started off in modeling as a Miller A lol....then it became a northern stream event but i remember scoring 4 or so inches. Of course New England got nuked

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game.  You know this.  Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better.  Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big.  As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare.  Feb 1978 had such a gradient.  That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did.  That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar.  All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did.  I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over.  I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together.  

It's not going to happen for us.  I've already accepted our fate.  There's but only so much trending at this lead time and I think we've seen the peak.  If I was in Baltimore and NE MD, I'd say hold on...hold on...I'm not being pessimistic, I'm just being real.  Our best hope is to score on the backside and get a slushy inch or two.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game.  You know this.  Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better.  Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big.  As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare.  Feb 1978 had such a gradient.  That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did.  That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar.  All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did.  I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over.  I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together.  

IMO there is enough time for a tick s/sw with an earlier transfer which would help you guys.  It really wouldnt take much to bring smiles to many in this region. 

Maybe I'm off my rocker, but followning the evolution of this one makes me not give up hope for you guys.

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