BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What a difficult forecast...The NAMS are obviously overdone with the marginal temperatures we are gonna have but it obviously gets some of us in the CCB when other models don’t. Got to see the GfS and euro take a bigger step towards this for me to really believe it. Currently I’d call for 1-3 wet inches in northern Baltimore, Harford and Cecil counties with just a mix from Baltimore city-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing. So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score, if everything goes just right with steady SN+ rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing. So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score. Probably. I've gotta say, that's quite the deathband though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Be interesting to see if the NAM continues its south trend with the heavier snow. Getting into its wheelhouse if there is such a thing with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: I actually think the snow depth map will be more realistic than the 10:1 SLR map. Let's be honest, it's March, this is during the day, and temps will probably be just above freezing. So we won't see those 12"+ totals. Maybe 4-8" for those of us who can score, if everything goes just right with steady SN+ rates. It comes in at night though. If a couple of inches falls before daybreak... that would help a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Man o man what a cutoff! But imagine this forum if all the guidance shifts southwest by 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Probably. I've gotta say, that's quite the deathband though Wow... that is super impressive. It will be quite an amazing sight up my way if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: It comes in at night though. If a couple of inches falls before daybreak... that would help a lot The 0z runs showed a much better front end thump, with the 12k NAM dropping 1-2" near the evening hours for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAMs close off 5H at the southern Tip of NJ and the GFS is 6 hours later near the east end of LI. Something too look for during the globals later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Interesting to note that we are dealing with a rapidly intensifying storm, not some weak shell of a system struggling to pass by. These are setups that we can win at in the last minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If the 3km NAM verified with its depiction, you would certainly see 1-3” around BWI, 2-5” Southern Baltimore County, 4-8” Northern Baltimore and Harford County with 5-10” over Cecil. This is looking like a classic Miller B evolution for Mid Atlantic. System will be intensifying quickly at our latitude. Potomac River to the NE in for some snow, but the real game will likely lie to the NE of the sub forum. Minor shift to the southwest could put a better precip potential towards burbs of DC, so something to watch, but I think areas I mentioned really need to keep an eye on this. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 This is how you get what the 3km is selling. Intense H85 frontogenesis focused over the NE quadrant of the state. H7 isn’t bad either over the area, so you have the two working in tandem. Where ever that frontogen sets up is where the best banding will occur within the CCB. Right now, it’s focused Baltimore to the NE. Something to keep an eye on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B. RGEM is hillarious....you have a 1000 low right on Occean and precip amounts are like a 1014mb clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B. the worst Miller B possible is if Baltimore gets nailed and we get skunked. Maybe this would raise Mitchnick from the dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the worst Miller B possible is if Baltimore gets nailed and we get skunked. Maybe this would raise Mitchnick from the dead? Where are you Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 33 minutes ago, mappy said: whoa yeah i was wondering where you were..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B. i'm out of this one except for snow tv. the setup is too far north as depicted, but i could see why northeast md would be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: the worst Miller B possible is if Baltimore gets nailed and we get skunked. Maybe this would raise Mitchnick from the dead? speaking of....where is he? He went poof a long time ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: speaking of....where is he? He went poof a long time ago?? he asked for a pattern change because cold and dry wasnt working....then we got record heat for February...and havent heard from him since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: i'm out of this one except for snow tv. the setup is too far north as depicted, but i could see why northeast md would be interested. its not unreasonable to see this shift a little s/sw, as the couple runs have shown that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Through 21, GFS H5 a little south with slightly lower heights out front. Canadian ULL SW of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: he asked for a pattern change because cold and dry wasnt working....then we got record heat for February...and havent heard from him since bummer. Hope he comes out of hibernation to have some fun. And thank you for the new post style. It is appreciated, and enjoyed by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The NAM would be even more painful than normal for DC with a Miller B. Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game. You know this. Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better. Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big. As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare. Feb 1978 had such a gradient. That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did. That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar. All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did. I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over. I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game. You know this. Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better. Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big. As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare. Feb 1978 had such a gradient. That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did. That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar. All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did. I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over. I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together. was jan 2005 a miller B. I rememember it started off in modeling as a Miller A lol....then it became a northern stream event but i remember scoring 4 or so inches. Of course New England got nuked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game. You know this. Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better. Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big. As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare. Feb 1978 had such a gradient. That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did. That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar. All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did. I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over. I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together. It's not going to happen for us. I've already accepted our fate. There's but only so much trending at this lead time and I think we've seen the peak. If I was in Baltimore and NE MD, I'd say hold on...hold on...I'm not being pessimistic, I'm just being real. Our best hope is to score on the backside and get a slushy inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Pure northern stream miller b's are the hardest to get DC and places southwest into the game. You know this. Even the absolute BEST examples only barely get DC into the action and still northeast does better. Hybrid miller b's are better and sometimes score big. As for the sharp gradient between Baltimore and DC that is possible if very rare. Feb 1978 had such a gradient. That was a northern branch miller b that developed about where this one did. That one of course cut off and stalled and put down EPIC totals in new england that I doubt with this one, its more progressive but the back edge in our area could be similar. All that said I hope this one pulls a miracle and deforms DC like the back edge of Feb 10 2010 did. I really do want everyone to get a win before this year is over. I am not gonna lie of course I care more about MBY but it will be even better if we can all celebrate together. IMO there is enough time for a tick s/sw with an earlier transfer which would help you guys. It really wouldnt take much to bring smiles to many in this region. Maybe I'm off my rocker, but followning the evolution of this one makes me not give up hope for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Transfer to OBX, a little north of the NAMs at 45, but a stronger coastal early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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