Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

Yea no kidding. I think there was too much of a jump east with the rest of overnight guidance, while the Euro pretty much stayed put, with just a slightly further west mid level track versus 12z.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

Hey, BTV didn't even use it yesterday in there AFD,  Its not the same Euro like it use to be you know unless its shows the solution you are looking for then its the king again.

[Buddy1987]

One hell of a squall line out over the Atlantic on the 3K. Just goes to show you the dynamics. Pretty decent convective elements that brush LI as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Berks

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hey, BTV didn't even use it yesterday in there AFD,  Its not the same Euro like it use to be you know unless its shows the solution you are looking for then its the king again.

Egg all over that package's face this morning.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

For 20"?

Edit... after looking at the Euro, yeah.  My bad

SNH special

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

These miller B's tend to Move east last moment

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

For 20"?

Yes . It’s not over the Berks anymore 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

Your gonna rock

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your gonna rock

Euro says ASH over to Salem look great

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your gonna rock

We feel good 

[wxsniss]

Quinn... why does everything have to get stupified.

13z HRRR (which continues to be more dry than other mesos) looks good for warning in Boston, maybe even cooler southeast MA and a tick east vs. 12z, we'll watch how this trends given tendency of Miller B's

[TalcottWx]

HRRR NAM RAP all similar. Over to heavy snow 8-9pm at BOS

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the RAP happens, might be time to give up the hobby. Although i want it to happen.

Some of these recent runs are nuts.  

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

These miller B's tend to Move east last moment

Meh...I've seen that posted multiple times the past 24hrs.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Egg all over that package's face this morning.

Yeah....even though we get it hasn't been dominant all winter, it's not exactly the NOGAPS or ICON model....it was a huge head-scratcher to completely disregard it. Looks pretty bad now.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well well well well...  so it appears the models have finally coalesced around this things... and, the Euro won.

'Course .. to be fair, we gotta let it play out... Sufficed it is to say, so far all indications and observations have the party organizers uncorking the champagne.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....even though we get it hasn't been dominant all winter, it's not exactly the NOGAPS or ICON model....it was a huge head-scratcher to completely disregard it. Looks pretty bad now.

 

 

Jay will verify their forecast anyway.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh...I've seen that posted multiple times the past 24hrs.

Depending what you need to get snow in your area, Models tend to go ________ in Miller B's.

[TalcottWx]

This uncertainty isn't anything new.

Why wouldn't they at least have an advisory or watch along the area? 

I understand the requirements, but I have people betting me it won't snow within 5 miles of the airport right now.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jay will verify their forecast anyway.

All hail the king!

[CoastalWx]

NWS put TSSNGS in the NYC TAFS. Man stuff.

[dendrite]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

All hail the king!

Jay Peak

[eyewall]

Snow has started here. If the Euro is correct it would just be advisory level in the end up here.

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jay Peak

I'm heading to the top of Dorchester Heights nude with a kite during the thundersnow. 

[CoastalWx]

Someone with these winds and all that wet snow is going to have grid issues. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Who is Quinn?

[HullMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone with these winds and all that wet snow is going to have grid issues. 

Scituate and hull are definitely going to have grid issues. Part of scituate is under 7 feet of sand right now.

[wxsniss]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is Quinn?

The media's name for this storm lol... I'd never call anyone here stupifying 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is Quinn?

Medicine woman?