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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Cranky with the best gfs summation I’ve ever seen


Even the horrid GFS model finally gave up the goat and came into line with the process. It has been atrocious recently especially with thermals. Why this wouldn't be immediately tossed from the start I don't know. You didn't even have to analyze it you just had to remember it was a disaster the past four or five storms with thermals and simply ignore it.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Tough break! I could see it going either way tommorow, depending on the impact (Delay vs Closure). But if they are trying to avoid using a snow day, the timing is perfect.

Based on the early Jan storm, I would expect closures tomorrow, especially if we get some wind.  If this shuts off at 3AM or so, it will be hard for places to get things opened up enough even with a delay.  Just my thoughts

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Looks like the snow is spreading east already, nice ocean effect squalls coming in with the easterly flow. Got hit with one even out this way earlier this morning dropping a nice fluff coating and more incoming possibly it looks like. 31F

The stuff we got overnight I think was from the east I think?  0.25" at my house

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Huh latest HRRR warms the ct coast up to 38 and we rain until the afternoon. Don’t follow the HRRR enough to know if it’s accurate but that seems even warmer than what the gfs thermals were.

Wow. Snow line seems to be Bridgeport. Do we toss or should we be concerned?

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OrangeCTWX

OrangeCTWX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow. Snow line seems to be Bridgeport. Do we toss or should we be concerned?

Well it certainly delivered the goods afterwards and gives us 12 inches by 16hr (and it’s still snowing) but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we had a period of rain during the later morning when the precip is still light.  Hopefully it’s just bad thermals though. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Well it certainly delivered the goods afterwards and gives us 12 inches by 16hr (and it’s still snowing) but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we had a period of rain during the later morning when the precip is still light.  Hopefully it’s just bad thermals though. 

Plus its the HRRR. The RGEM had the same rain to thundersnow idea.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Could be an all-time melt from me. We'll see

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

@NWSBoston on twitter emphasizing the "how much sticks" rather than what's falling:

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/971371977872113665

"Snow totals are how much will be on the ground. That's the challenge for E MA. We know it will snow, even to the coast, but how much will stick with temperatures just above freezing? That's going to be our focus today."

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

What  the Boston mets on twitter are trying to say is that although it may snow all the way to Logan Airport, the amount that will be on the ground solid may be 5,6 or 7" of pure glop on the grassy surfaces and car tops but wet pavement and sidewalks.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

GOES-16 has a 1 minute Meso-sector for the event. With all the little nuances. Need real-time profile temps through the column.   

I just read somewhere that the Gulf Stream is gonna collapse at the same time we go into a super low sunspot cycle. In other words, a new ice age.

And, did you know that astronauts never landed on the moon? It was all staged in Hollywood, which is gonna slip off the edge of our flat earth when the San Andreas goes ballistic in a couple years.

Great for an SNL skit about deplorables

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Looks like I'm gonna win my bet with Fisher

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