Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You have the qpf total? looks like a huge hit from philly to maine.

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You have the qpf total? looks like a huge hit from philly to maine.

no. 5 min or so

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thats not the total winterishere.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie would taint Coast initially

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ukie ticked west a bit from 0z. Would be surprised if Euro didn't come west a touch.

Yea, at this lead time, a 25-50 mile tick is within margin of error. Heck, it was off by 150miles in Jan 15 at hr48.

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Easily at least a foot here. Even close to 20" if we play our cards right with first half of this storm thermally wise.

I'm thinking 12-24" as first guess here.

This looks like our best storm since 2014-2015 season.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thats not the total winterishere.

Steve has it or whoever is on WeatherX, I get them thru Meteo website and its not out yet.

[BRSno]

That'd be quite the deluge on the GFS 

[Typhoon Tip]

not the right thread but that 2nd system handling by the icon may as well be on Neptune 

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

 

It's pretty clear what's going on with this - general theme is tucked in tight to the coast to 40N. Phase of Northern Stream does not happen cleanly, so acts as a kicker until into GOM. As tip mentioned though, this interaction needs to watched closely, bc the phase has been trending earlier and "cleaner" over time...

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

That'd be quite the deluge on the GFS 

You’d get a lot of snow unless you moved..

[dryslot]

12z Ukie

[BRSno]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’d get a lot of snow unless you moved..

Still in Eastie by the airport. Hope your right! 

[WxBlue]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm thinking 12-24" as first guess here.

This looks like our best storm since 2014-2015 season.

Agree. Man, this has been a blast of a winter.

[wxeyeNH]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Ukie

Looking at the GFS perhaps another .25" or .35" after 72 hours in NH/Maine

[dryslot]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Looking at the GFS perhaps another .25" or .35" after 72 hours in NH/Maine

It would be more, Yes, Only goes to hr 72 on that site.

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not the right thread but that 2nd system handling by the icon may as well be on Neptune 

Ski areas would be in business until July.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Agree. Man, this has been a blast of a winter.

Yea I love the winters up here. So much to track, especially if you love snow.

[jbenedet]

GEFS are tucked in. Looks like another 50 mile tick northwest with track. 

Man that Northern stream interaction is so critical. Looks like it happens 3-6 hr sooner on the GEFS versus 6z. Another bump like that, it probably doesn't kick east before running over RI/SE MA.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

GEFS are tucked in. Looks like another 50 mile tick northwest with track. 

Man that Northern stream interaction is so critical. Looks like it happens 3-6 hr sooner on the GEFS versus 6z. Another bump like that, it probably doesn't kick east before running over RI/SE MA.

That would disappoint a whole lot of folks.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs are tucked. The tilting sw on the backside of the trough is a clear trend on the op and gefs for several cycles now. 

[aldie 22]

I'm gonna be in Auburn for a few days how is it looking there?

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I love the winters up here. So much to track, especially if you love snow.

Long way to go in C/NNE.  Don't get me talking about my Memorial Day snow or the big Boston May 10th snow.  Enjoy.  All roads lead to New England.... 

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That would disappoint a whole lot of folks.

That's one way to put it...

[JC-CT]

They look like the OP which was expected

[nutmegfriar]

Cue the wishcasting.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm gonna be in Auburn for a few days how is it looking there?

Auburn MA or NH?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That would disappoint a whole lot of folks.

 

Pope a dope on a rope

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

They look like the OP which was expected

Can we just lock in a UK track with nam like qpf already....

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

They look like the OP which was expected

Yeah at this point it's about the OP runs. The ensembles are just going to mimic them almost exactly this close in.