Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

AWT

Berks

[jbenedet]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

When you get to work and you realize no one else showed up.. LOL

Coastal flooding threat is serious with this....

Major flooding expected for most of the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/box/coastal

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

I know, I'm just busting his balls.

[Ginx snewx]

NAM clown maps have a 21 spot over my head

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable until yesterday.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

The general trend was absolutely towards the euro as many of us expected. That said, it still has to verify. I think there may have been a *slight* over correction east. Euro has been consistently south/east up until go time so I think a track 25-50 miles further nw than 0z is worth hedging against.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Berks

Two jack zones. But the better one will be east imo. From N ORH up to southwest ME.

[TalcottWx]

12k NAM is colder.... BOY OH BOY OH BOY

[weathafella]

NAM is a crushing for the airport!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The general trend was absolutely towards the euro as many of us expected. That said, it still has to verify. I think there may have been a *slight* over correction east. Euro has been consistently south/east up until go time so I think a track 25-50 miles further nw than 0z is worth hedging against.

Id say be ready for another tickle east 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Two jack zones. But the better one will be east imo. From N ORH up to southwest ME.

Id take that south a tad

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id say be ready for another tickle east 

 

Well if 12z NAM is any indication, I'll be correct - midlevel track was slightly west versus 6z.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id take that south a tad

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it just me or is the 3 km NAM out by the Benchmark?

[CoastalWx]

If the RAP happens, might be time to give up the hobby. Although i want it to happen.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

Yea no kidding. I think there was too much of a jump east with the rest of overnight guidance, while the Euro pretty much stayed put, with just a slightly further west mid level track versus 12z.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

Hey, BTV didn't even use it yesterday in there AFD,  Its not the same Euro like it use to be you know unless its shows the solution you are looking for then its the king again.

[Buddy1987]

One hell of a squall line out over the Atlantic on the 3K. Just goes to show you the dynamics. Pretty decent convective elements that brush LI as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Berks

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hey, BTV didn't even use it yesterday in there AFD,  Its not the same Euro like it use to be you know unless its shows the solution you are looking for then its the king again.

Egg all over that package's face this morning.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

For 20"?

Edit... after looking at the Euro, yeah.  My bad

SNH special

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

These miller B's tend to Move east last moment

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

For 20"?

Yes . It’s not over the Berks anymore 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No . That was yesterday. It’s shifted east and south 

Your gonna rock

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your gonna rock

Euro says ASH over to Salem look great

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your gonna rock

We feel good 

[wxsniss]

Quinn... why does everything have to get stupified.

13z HRRR (which continues to be more dry than other mesos) looks good for warning in Boston, maybe even cooler southeast MA and a tick east vs. 12z, we'll watch how this trends given tendency of Miller B's

[TalcottWx]

HRRR NAM RAP all similar. Over to heavy snow 8-9pm at BOS

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the RAP happens, might be time to give up the hobby. Although i want it to happen.

Some of these recent runs are nuts.  

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

These miller B's tend to Move east last moment

Meh...I've seen that posted multiple times the past 24hrs.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Egg all over that package's face this morning.

Yeah....even though we get it hasn't been dominant all winter, it's not exactly the NOGAPS or ICON model....it was a huge head-scratcher to completely disregard it. Looks pretty bad now.