Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Somebody bump-troll the hell out of @CoastalWx, TIA

Hey all that matters is that airport on a peninsula...lol. They still are tricky. Bombs away just inland.

[dendrite]

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hey all that matters is that airport on a peninsula...lol. They still are tricky. Bombs away just inland.

No way, don't try to pull that crap! You were talking about your hood. 2" of sloppy slush.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

At least the chickens will be happy

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

No way, don't try to pull that crap! You were talking about your hood. 2" of sloppy slush.

True. And it's borderline there too. I have this awful vision of 4 miles west of me getting double.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

Yeah, the changes at h5 at 12 hours vs 6...nasogood. So now we are going to get a model with the thermals of the GFS and the overresolution-driven unreliability of the NAM? sweet

[Damage In Tolland]

Some places interior SNE will pull 20” out of this . Can see it lining up 

[ORH_wxman]

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

The synoptics weren't favorable for the coast either....it's a needle-threader there.

[wxsniss]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Yes... not understanding the holding back on the warnings / 6+ forecasts... the shoulders could be light rain, but the meat is at least 6 hours of heavy wet snow that should accumulate.

We just had an OES pass through... brief decent snow rates. Thermals are not warmer during snowfall later, and even colder at the surface. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The synoptics weren't favorable for the coast either....it's a needle-threader there.

I suppose there could still be some BL concerns directly on the coast. I don't see an issue anymore at 925 and certainly not 850.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

They were. But when a tick west means maybe 1C warmer in the column and all rain...it's tough to go for a snowy outcome in such a borderline profile. It still is too. You need dynamics, and that is a tough way to run a snowy outcome. 

[TalcottWx]

When you get to work and you realize no one else showed up.. LOL

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some places interior SNE will pull 20” out of this . Can see it lining up 

AWT

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable until yesterday.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

AWT

Berks

[jbenedet]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

When you get to work and you realize no one else showed up.. LOL

Coastal flooding threat is serious with this....

Major flooding expected for most of the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/box/coastal

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

I know, I'm just busting his balls.

[Ginx snewx]

NAM clown maps have a 21 spot over my head

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable until yesterday.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.

The general trend was absolutely towards the euro as many of us expected. That said, it still has to verify. I think there may have been a *slight* over correction east. Euro has been consistently south/east up until go time so I think a track 25-50 miles further nw than 0z is worth hedging against.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Berks

Two jack zones. But the better one will be east imo. From N ORH up to southwest ME.

[TalcottWx]

12k NAM is colder.... BOY OH BOY OH BOY

[weathafella]

NAM is a crushing for the airport!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The general trend was absolutely towards the euro as many of us expected. That said, it still has to verify. I think there may have been a *slight* over correction east. Euro has been consistently south/east up until go time so I think a track 25-50 miles further nw than 0z is worth hedging against.

Id say be ready for another tickle east 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Two jack zones. But the better one will be east imo. From N ORH up to southwest ME.

Id take that south a tad

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id say be ready for another tickle east 

 

Well if 12z NAM is any indication, I'll be correct - midlevel track was slightly west versus 6z.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id take that south a tad

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it just me or is the 3 km NAM out by the Benchmark?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's the NAM. Why stray from the Euro at this point?

Yea no kidding. I think there was too much of a jump east with the rest of overnight guidance, while the Euro pretty much stayed put, with just a slightly further west mid level track versus 12z.