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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This is why I love the NAM.

Keeps me entertained until the big guys rip it out east like usual ;)

Classic over-amped NAMMY type run.

 

I dunno. Matches up with the 6z GEFS pretty darn well, which had an unsettling number of members run the slp right over PVD/BOS.

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Another Nick Foles run
Seems synoptically possible... just a matter of phasing and closing earlier, such that it is spent by the time it reaches our lattitude, and correctly scoots east and is not an inland cutter due to the block

But how can the Euro be so wrong... 5 consistent runs inside 96hrs... either this once again proves beyond a doubt that something is ill with the Euro, or it's just Nam's fun encore before curtains

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is why I love the NAM.

Keeps me entertained until the big guys rip it out east like usual ;)

Classic over-amped NAMMY type run.

nam_ref_east_23.thumb.png.1ee2d1ed4aa4238fe2f35f42cbe67ca9.png

Final sensible weather impacts are of course likely not right in this case. BUT there were some big changes through 48 at H5, showing a sharper trough and higher downstream UL heights. Those changes are likely at least on the right track and will likely be reflected in other guidance going forward...

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That NAM run looks exactly like the amped up ENS members of the GEFS and EPS.  There weren't a ton of the EPS but a few of them that showed that.  GEFS had a bunch more.

I'm with wxniss though... I can't see the EURO being wrong 5 runs in a row.  That's a tough pill to swallow.

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I said this a few days ago, but this really is a Miller A/B system. In fact this is looking more Miller A over time, with a late phase after becoming vertically stacked around hr 72...

Would be <980 mb storm if we could bring forward the timing of that final phase by 12 hours or so...

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your area is tricky. Best dynamics south perhaps? Left with dryslot and wrap around maybe ?

Not with the Euro, Nope, Not tricky at all, Kicks east out over the cape because of blocking, Has not been any model run that shows anything you have mentioned for up here.

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