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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm assuming you actually know this ... but, D10 particularly at this time of year is almost meaningless..

That said, the cold signals abound, even if the model appears spurious and way over-done with that.   Heh, as is? That vortex is like a -10 SD feature for this time of year - ...kidding, but it's so absurd that it has like 120 kts of balanced wind everywhere in the middle troposphere.  We pay good money to get jet maxes in S/W with 2/3rds that kind of velocity and this run does it everywhere - okay.

What would that mean...if it happened to play out just like that??   Big cold??  Or big storm??  Or both??

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What would that mean...if it happened to play out just like that??   Big cold??  Or big storm??  Or both??

As is? Neither ...heh.  seriously -

That's importing -10 C 850 air in April sun... so so cold, as Scott was portraying.  That lobe of syrup up south of JB in Canada probably modifies as it comes south, too. 

It would certainly be 'enough' if one was holding out hope for last winter hurrahs and so forth.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 I mentioned the 70s, just to illustrate that the weather may be pleasant despite not being very warm.  Sure you can never rule out some sort of renegade bowling ball, but the pattern as a whole doesn’t seem all that wintry to me. 

Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies.

50F would be downright hot at this point...

Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol.

Very spring-like appeal though today.  Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground.  You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed.

B50yCxf.jpg

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We just did a 5 day stretch of minimum temperatures below zero...coldest at -16F.

Down to -2.2 on the month after the first 15 days were +2.8.  In 10 days we erased a full 5 degrees of average monthly temperatures including -22/-27/-24/-17/-12 type departures.

I'm ready for warmth (ie 45F+).  A good last blast of cold and snow but time to move on with daylight lasting until after 7pm now.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies.

50F would be downright hot at this point...

Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol.

Very spring-like appeal though today.  Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground.  You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed.

B50yCxf.jpg

Deep pack there. You'll be warmer than down here while we NE flow next two days.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies.

50F would be downright hot at this point...

Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol.

Very spring-like appeal though today.  Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground.  You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed.

B50yCxf.jpg

Definitely noticed the change in Newry Maine Thursday afternoon before that it was snow white clean. What  a great month of ski conditions.  Not such a great month for homeowners in SNE. The damage to trees from 395 Ct to 290 to 495 Mass was incredible.  Haverhill was real bad

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28 minutes ago, White Rain said:

The tree damage is real bad in many spots, we were lucky to avoid any damage in that. The damage was obvious not far away and very bad up in NE mass like you said - even as close as Clinton near here. As bad as it was, it still looked tame to me compared with the 2008 ice storm. It still looks like a tornado went through the woods around here 10 years later even with extensive clean up, with trees bent and large trunks snapped in half littering the woods behind our house. Feel bad for people who were impacted in this more recent one and the first nor’easter, hate to see the destruction. Luckily these type of events don’t happen most winters. 

Yeah, our area has been rather lucky since 2008 as far as tree damage. Other areas have had numerous damaging events, either from heavy wet snow, or tropical systems.

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah, our area has been rather lucky since 2008 as far as tree damage. Other areas have had numerous damaging events, either from heavy wet snow, or tropical systems.

4 damaging storms since 10/29/17, that and gypsy moths killing trees have left our forests with lots of debris. Hopefully spring is wet and green up happens quick

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10 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Last patch of natural snow that was not in a pile or snowbank officially melted from my yard today,  We done.  Not rooting for anything else unless it's a big dog.  Spring cleanup officially started today for me as some debris were picked up and a few areas raked out.  

Still full pack here . Wish it would go now but with return of winter this coming weekend and next week, ain’t no spring or cleanup to be had 

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