HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Coastal impacts still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not until Friday night on most guidance right now. Do you think it continues into Saturday or mainly Fri night? Eps has some juicy more north members interestingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you think it continues into Saturday or mainly Fri night? Eps has some juicy more north members interestingly LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you think it continues into Saturday or mainly Fri night? Eps has some juicy more north members interestingly Way too early to figure that out yet. I will say that there are a lot of solutions that show decent snow even after a torch first half of the storm...that is something that will have to be watched. Those solutions won't give 35" like the ones that stayed more than 75% snow, but they could still be high impact because it's a paste job. I'd wait though and see what 12z does today. We want that stall of the ULL near the BM for good snows into Saturday. Euro is actually kind of progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I’m going to stick a fork in this one in terms of snow. Way too warm in the mid levels. If the euro is a torch at 850 with that track it’s curtains for us. the interesting part now is where this track sets up and how big wind/rain/coastal flooding is. Honestly I am starting to wonder if this storm will be a big deal for anyone as far as impacts. Hopefully we will have a clearer picture after today's 12z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Way too early to figure that out yet. I will say that there are a lot of solutions that show decent snow even after a torch first half of the storm...that is something that will have to be watched. Those solutions won't give 35" like the ones that stayed more than 75% snow, but they could still be high impact because it's a paste job. I'd wait though and see what 12z does today. We want that stall of the ULL near the BM for good snows into Saturday. Euro is actually kind of progressive. Amazing we are so close in and still can't tell how much snow we're gonna get. The monster solutions obviously off the table, but even a 6-12" event could happen on some of those solutions. Hopefully 12z starts to show some clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 ??Think he’s laughing at your snow comment. Honestly think CT, MA, and RI are off the table for snow. May see some in the upper Hill areas but not any 6-12 ers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Pretty clear at this point this is a CNE and NNE storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Think he’s laughing at your snow comment. Honestly think CT, MA, and RI are off the table for snow. May see some in the upper Hill areas but not any 6-12 ers . He's not laughing at my snow comment as he thinks we all snow. I'm sure it was the eps comment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 You can only polish a turd for so long. After the euro... I feel pretty confident in punting good snow for SNE... maybe the ORH hills score some back end slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 He's not laughing at my snow comment as he thinks we all snow. I'm sure it was the eps comment.. Hey I’m usually all in when it comes to snow but trends haven’t been in our favor up to this point. Think there are too many hurdles to overcome. First was surface temps. Now its that and mid levels etc etc. Thers really no model at this point 36-48 hrs out now that shows any significant snows for CT and Ma. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 No shunt no whiff yes rain minimal snow sne status as of right now. Hopefully it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 FWIW which is not much, the 6z NAM looks like a pretty huge paste job in N MA and S NH after a bunch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The EPS did look to change areas to snow, esp higher spots, but lower elevations seemed game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 You can only polish a turd for so long. After the euro... I feel pretty confident in punting good snow for SNE... maybe the ORH hills score some back end slop Correct. Unless midday runs do a complete 180 which I don’t see happening it’s just a good ol fashion rainy Nor Easter. Certainly think they’ll be wind and rain impacts but not a widespread snow event for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Trust me after seeing that NAM run yesterday I had a big chubby but we all know they don’t last longer than 4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Wtf is wrong w the euro Why is the convective feedback messing w the model so badly. Seems euro should be more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Dont sleep on a closed 5H low deepening and slowing as it goes under Eastern long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Dont sleep on a closed 5H low deepening and slowing as it goes under Eastern long island.Yesterday I would have agreed but the trends last night of closing too late and more northern track made the train leave that station. Do I think a quick couple inches of slop can happen? Sure but don’t see any 6-12s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Dont sleep on a closed 5H low deepening and slowing as it goes under Eastern long island. Esp if it stalls somewhere near BM and slowly drifts S or E. That puts us in the firehose crosshairs for a good while after thermal profiles crash down. A lot of guidance does this so it is something to watch. Dont think we can take a further south overall ULL track off the table either further west though the trends last night were not good on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Yeah we'll see how guidance goes today. It did seem to level off at 6z. the GEFS maybe even ticked SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I applaud Ray for sticking to his guns. His reasoning was sound. The primary holding on longer up into the GL region runs counter to my thinking; I thought the block would be sufficient to deflect it on a more southerly route, but such is the adamancy of the modeling that that does not appear to be the case now. Indeed, maybe, as Ray suggested, the -PNA is actually working against us in that respect. Our already marginal airmass will become even more hostile to frozen p-type. With so much juice available with this thing, it is deeply frustrating to think that if we had even an average early March airmass, this storm might've been discussed in the same breath as Feb '13 or March 1888. I still think the Euro looks a bit wonky, and am skeptical of it being so progressive. I'm hoping for earlier phasing today, but do not expect it. Barring the revival of that day 7 threat, this is probably the last trackable event in this locality until some time in late August, so let's hope the juice is worth the squeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we'll see how guidance goes today. It did seem to level off at 6z. the GEFS maybe even ticked SE a bit. Yes gefs were better. Losing the idea that SLP will make it into SNE. If you loop the past 3 runs of the ens members at hr 54 you see a clear trend south and to a lesser extent east, which actually has been quite significant (albeit gradual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I notice my weenie model is a little more aggressive at 6z than 0z flipping orh county into Nashua back to snow by 1 to 4pm Friday. I just keep toggling 850's low position and temps and it ohhhh so close to a complete crush job for orh county into monads. Would not take more than a 30 mile correction w a storm of equal strength even into say ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: I applaud Ray for sticking to his guns. His reasoning was sound. The primary holding on longer up into the GL region runs counter to my thinking; I thought the block would be sufficient to deflect it on a more southerly route, but such is the adamancy of the modeling that that does not appear to be the case now. Indeed, maybe, as Ray suggested, the -PNA is actually working against us in that respect. Our already marginal airmass will become even more hostile to frozen p-type. With so much juice available with this thing, it is deeply frustrating to think that if we had even an average early March airmass, this storm might've been discussed in the same breath as Feb '13 or March 1888. I still think the Euro looks a bit wonky, and am skeptical of it being so progressive. I'm hoping for earlier phasing today, but do not expect it. Barring the revival of that day 7 threat, this is probably the last trackable event in this locality until some time in late August, so let's hope the juice is worth the squeeze. Agree on this system but we do have chances behind it, more than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I notice my weenie model is a little more aggressive at 6z than 0z flipping orh county into Nashua back to snow by 1 to 4pm Friday. I just keep toggling 850's low position and temps and it ohhhh so close to a complete crush job for orh county into monads. Would not take more than a 30 mile correction w a storm of equal strength even into say ASH. I can't see the BTV WRF. How are you seeing it? The graphics do not load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I just looked at the 6Z NAM more closely after Dom’s comment. Definitely a paste bomb for a lot of late afternoon Friday through the night into Saturday early morning. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Dont sleep on a closed 5H low deepening and slowing as it goes under Eastern long island. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I can't see the BTV WRF. How are you seeing it? The graphics do not load. Strange. Just on mobile but mirrors the leveling off your talking about for 6z. Has a nice elevation signal for N orh county and monads after say 2pm Friday and well see how this trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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