40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The negative PNA is why I have been adamant against a whiff, but it may also assist in allowing the primary to get too much latitude before it encounters the block. If this event doesn't workout, I'll def. blog on how that screwed the pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...I have overlooked what goes on before the system reaches the block, actually. If this storm doesn't work out, it will be because of that...I totally dropped the ball on that. You are right....a lot goes on before it reaches the block. Thanks. It all good man, Looks like PWM will have its 3rd warmest Feb on record, If we had cold air in place we would be talking snow totals for the month instead of this BS temps in Feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Where have you been all winter? Not that any of us would have gotten more snow based on your analysis but you are a great asset here! Ha, thanks Yeah I've been doing more lurking than posting. Mostly crazy busy at work (hence random postings 2-4 am) The wife, who also tolerated me through Feb 2015, has (only half jokingly) instituted a 3-storm / season rule: I'm allowed to geek out uninterrupted for 3 storms / winter. Which worked well this winter: aside from the January blizzard, I haven't been impressed enough by most potentials. More generally, the increasingly pervasive (and improving) snowmaps kind of take a little thrill out of the hobby, because anyone can just blend rip and read. It's the chase and anticipating the positive surprises based on meteorology / experience that added to the suspense in the past. Will automation and computer guidance eventually get so good that we don't need human forecasters? Topic for another thread... Euro running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Dryslot (do the darn pbp)please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looks like streams are interacting a bit more through hr 24.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Hair faster and more interaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Dryslot (do the darn pbp)please! Lol, Looks like its going to be north of the 12z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This will def. be south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Very similar to CMC at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Later phase, Going to close off later this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Later phase, Going to close off later this run SV is faster than wxbell....looked like more interaction early on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ray it looks to me like a later interaction actually thru 48hr.. and slightly more ridging in the southeast... this is going to come north from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Ray it looks to me like a later interaction actually thru 48hr.. and slightly more ridging in the southeast... this is going to come north from 12z Yes, later it looks that way. Agree. Still looks a bit south of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Its better ten the 12z run, But its warmer early on to but its not as far north as the GFS was, looks like a decent hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'm expecting what I posted earlier tonight... not the leap to the rest of the 0z suite, but a compromise which should be a decent if not big hit on SNE... certainly at least better than 12z... The later phase looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its better ten the 12z run, But its warmer early on to but its not as far north as the GFS was, looks like a decent hit for SNE. I think H5 looks good....haven't looked at thermals. Dynamics should be better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Pretty progressive though, Just kinds of scoots east once it hits the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pretty progressive though, Just kinds of scoots east once it hits the atlantic. Further east than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'll take this considering the balance of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Further east than the other models I mean, It just kept moving along, No stall, No fuji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Model mayhem at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take this considering the balance of the 00z suite. Yeah, I didn't expect to take a total leap to the NW, Its just not the models nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Still looks like it's having a convective feedback error. All other models abandon the easterly escape low today. GFS CMC UKMET and the trend all show a northerly solution, I say Euro is overruled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I didn't expect to take a total leap to the NW, Its just not the models nature. Whats low position at 12z friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Still drops basically no snow here...all waaay west. More over NYS now as opposed to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Whats low position at 12z friday 39/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Whats low position at 12z friday Just outside BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Everything ticked north, H5 looks better, definite step in the right direction from 12z QPF only (not looking at thermals) thru hr 72: 12z had 0.2-0.4" roughly to south coast vs. 0z has 1" roughly to MA-CT border and 0.5-0.7" roughly to MA-NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Still looks like it's having a convective feedback error. All other models abandon the easterly escape low today. GFS CMC UKMET and the trend all show a northerly solution, I say Euro is overruled. Yeah, It developed a second low out by the convection to the east, Then it fujis that one back to the west but its well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still drops basically no snow here...all waaay west. More over NYS now as opposed to NYC. Interior NY gets crushed on all the models and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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