RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 That stamps it, no way this misses. If we can slow it down a tick, we take the totals up a couple ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That stamps it, no way this misses. If we can slow it down a tick, we take the totals up a couple ticks. #returnofwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we paste 8-10” at 31 interior? Upper levels cold .. does that negate paste inland? I think if we get heavy snowfall rates, it's mostly going to be upper 20s in the elevated interior. It's too cold just off the deck. But can't rule out the "fluffy wet snow" type either. Esp if the rates aren't quite there and it ends up more of a 3-5" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think if we get heavy snowfall rates, it's mostly going to be upper 20s in the elevated interior. It's too cold just off the deck. But can't rule out the "fluffy wet snow" type either. Esp if the rates aren't quite there and it ends up more of a 3-5" type deal. Probably our famous 28.2 snowfall temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 that's a cold column into a thin warm layer thing that does that type of snow, and this is at night? I don't think if dynamics hammer in a band or two given that profile there's going to be a thin warm layer anywhere given that look. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I definitely approve that euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS fuks up every single coastal. It’s bloody uncanny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's got about 2-4 there. Good stuff - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm... this one may not? Buuut conceptually/synoptically, I'm not sure I agree with the absolute tenor of this bold statement We are just starting to sample this thing on the 12z initialization over western Canada and so forth.. If it gets more potent it will roll out a little more lead side s/w ridging which could easily trigger a synoptic feed-back/mean a 100 miles N(S) adjustment in deep layer track in closer hours. Yea I guess I didn't make it clear that taking the 12z NAM run verbatim was essentially my hedge against this going much further north given it had the the strongest shortwave on guidance up to this point. The intensity of the shortwave is of course a critical lingering variable for the reasons you mention BUT you can clearly see the issues our little guy is having building downstream UL heights off the eastern seaboard. That aspect isn't going away; I don't care how intense this shortwave comes in. With the antecedent cold anchored in our backyard and momentum pressing east at around our latitude - in my mind this should prohibit a NE track over SNE. I brought this up previously, but there are some parallels to the January 17th snowstorm that hit the Carolina's. That one also struggled to gain any latitude despite it being a product of an intense shortwave (more intense than the current guidance consensus for this one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When do you think they and you will know? Look who's talking....Mr. No More Winter...cry baby lol.....Now you're back on the snow train....Hmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Look who's talking....Mr. No More Winter...cry baby lol.....Now you're back on the snow train....Hmmm? We snuck one event in a terrible pattern. Never said winter was over, it just looked very bleak. I call it like I see it, doesnt mean I will be right. We still dont know how the next 4 weeks play out with the bigfoot -nao either so hold your panties. Your posts get emotional and you fight with everyone, take a xanax and drink an IPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We snuck one event in a terrible pattern. Never said winter was over, it just looked very bleak. I call it like I see it, doesnt mean I will be right. We still dont know how the next 4 weeks play out with the bigfoot -nao either so hold your panties. Your posts get emotional and you fight with everyone, take a xanax and drink an IPA. And you're a wiseguy....so what's your point? I don't fight with anybody....I call like I see it also Berg....you were on the bleak train..you off now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We snuck one event in a terrible pattern. Never said winter was over, it just looked very bleak. I call it like I see it, doesnt mean I will be right. We still dont know how the next 4 weeks play out with the bigfoot -nao either so hold your panties. Your posts get emotional and you fight with everyone, take a xanax and drink an IPA. 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And you're a wiseguy....so what's your point? I don't fight with anybody....I call like I see it also Berg....you were on the bleak train..you off now? Fight! Fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, mreaves said: Fight! Fight! Just don't get creepy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Just don't get creepy. Lmao....right. How ridiculous. I get it, the pattern sucks, but if we can sneak a decent snow event in, then that's a win win for all of us. I don't care if it melts two days later or the same day, the fun for me is tracking the event and watching it fall and accumulate. I go find the snow to ride on anyway, so if it's not on the ground here that's fine with me. And I get the guys who like the pack idea...so to each their own. Hope we pull off a decent event Saturday night and Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18z NAM won't be as wild as 12z was if 54 hours is any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Good hit on the NAM again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM won't be as wild as 12z was if 54 hours is any indication. Hr 60 has a very nice look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yeah that is still a pretty wild solution....lol. Might be slightly more compact than 12z, but still insane UVVs and fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 32K NAM showing widespread 5-9 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 yeah didn't see appreciable differences out side of internal structural noise "maybe" causing less on one interval where it's a bit more on the preceding/ending ... net same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 I'm so hoping we get 12" of toothpaste and it's 80 on Wednesday.... Oh pleeezy weezy with sugar on top make that happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Solid event, warning snows for sne. Just stay up long enough to see it pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Solid event, warning snows for sne. Just stay up long enough to see it pile up. My name is thumpity pronounced with a umpity. CSI anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 80? The torch vanished next week on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 80? The torch vanished next week on the ensembles what are we looking at instead? 65 instead of 80? still a Mr. Torchey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 And boy, with that sun angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Box went with 4-6 across the board with their latest update, except for the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: And boy, with that sun angle... Don't get sunburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Ryan going 5-10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.