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Snowstorms

February 8th-11th Overrunning Event

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12 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said:

This must be a snowfall ratio thing they're looking at then. It would definitely explain the bullish map.

12z NAM on Pivotal is showing Kuchera ratios of 15-1 at onset (16-1 for part of the bullseye) and staying at or above 13-1 in the bullseye for the 1st wave duration.

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2 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Have not seen the 12-18'er. Seems confusing to have two different maps for two time periods out there, at least confusing to the public.

The 8-14 is their main graphic forecast.   The 12-18 is a secondary graphic.

 

image.jpeg

IMG_0223.PNG

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For Wave 1, MKE is mentioning 18:1 ratios

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Friday...Forecast Confidence is High...

Light snow is falling across parts of Iowa along a baroclinic zone
and strengthening upper jet. Returns showing up on radar in
southwest WI are not hitting the ground, yet. Snow is expected to
move into southwest WI around 6-7 pm. It will then spread across
southern WI, pushing north of I-94 around 9 pm. Adjusted
snowfall totals down a tad for counties not touching the Illinois
state line, as those areas will be on the northern edge of the
heaviest snowfall (down in Illinois).

The greatest snowfall totals will be in far southern WI and across
northern Illinois. This is where the strongest low level
frontogenesis and warm air advection sets up. Lift is good with
these features and the dendrite growth zone is up to 200mb.
The majority of the snow will fall between midnight and 6 am.
Tonight the low level jet will ramp up across Illinois, tightening
up the baroclinic zone along the Wisconsin/Illinois state line,
and providing strong warm air advection. Upper divergence
increases after midnight as the right entrance region passes
overhead.

Snowfall rates could be around 1 inch per hour after midnight.
The NAM continues to come in with aggressive precip amounts. Other
models are pretty consistent with the axis of greatest precip
across northern Illinois.

Some lake enhancement is possible with northeast winds Friday
morning, but an organized lake effect band is not expected. Delta T
values are 13. Light snow will likely linger in eastern WI through
Friday morning, and maybe into the afternoon along the lake. It
looks like snow to liquid ratios will be around 18:1. This is a
moderate consistency snow and winds may be just enough on Friday to
create a little drifting.

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37 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

DTX hoisted WSWs for Detroit on south. Makes sense given recent guidance. However I wouldn’t be shocked if the third tier counties get an upgrade during the night shift. The slightest wobble can bring warning snows further north. 

Anyhow, great hit for here in the city. Should be a fun day and evening. Also have Sat to watch out for. 

I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59.

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Really get a better sense of the cutoff on zoomed in maps like this.  10 miles either way could make a big difference in this area.

HRRRCHI_prec_precacc_018.png.e80cb3c634df5e474c02c327db4e16ca.png

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Sunshine peeking thru here.   I think this area around Prairie Du Chien is looking at three to four inches unless a surprise happens.   Atmosphere is in process of saturating even with good returns showing up on radar.   

Area between highway 20 and 30 looks great to me for some big totals.   

Post pics everyone!!!!

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The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts.

Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size?

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Flakes are good out here, not huge, but not pixie dust. Hopefully the HRRR/NAM arent on to something. Missing by 10 miles is 100000x worse than being missed by 100 miles.

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Really get a better sense of the cutoff on zoomed in maps like this.  10 miles either way could make a big difference in this area.
HRRRCHI_prec_precacc_018.png.e80cb3c634df5e474c02c327db4e16ca.png

Bullseyes for me north of Joliet


.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts.

Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size?

I'd say that's been the trend since 2/1-2/2/15. We shall see......

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24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59.

Unless they are seeing something we’re not. But, even the low range of guidance brings Warning criteria snows to a good chunk of the third tier counties. Strange.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

Gil Sebenste thinks there may be t snow tonight in the Chicago metro.    Enjoy!

I have been seeing the same potential as well, good pocket of mid level lapse rates sliding east with this.

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In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. 

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In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. 
Northern Illinois University already announced closed tomorrow

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

18z GFS

gfs_asnow_ncus_9.png

I'd be shocked if the band ends up this far south, especially when looking at current radar upstream.

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14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Difference in the NAM vs GFS with the storm on our door step is unbelievable 

The I-88 corridor has been bullseyed for awhile now. Most other storms, we are talking about the great model agreement. Problem with this specific scenario is the extreme cutoff on the north and south end. 

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I'd be shocked if the band ends up this far south, especially when looking at current radar upstream.


I’d be a fan though lol. Just so dicey for metro Toledo which is literally split in half by this, one of my best friends who lives in Lambertville should see 8-12” while me here in Perrysburg could only be around 5-8”. Lol it’s a 22 minute drive and that probably will mean a 4-6” gap of snow

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Not NWS bashing here, but LOT has the IKK zone with 3-7" total thru tomorrow...and with no advisory. Don't think I've seen that before. Granted there's uncertainty, and the county *could* have a big gradient from north to south if the snow makes it this far south, but still. Regardless, I don't think we'll even get to the low end of that range, so the point is probably moot. :D 

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2 hours ago, tuanis said:

I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it.

Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards.

Trust me when I say that seeing ^ that after worrying for two hours made my heart jump. And Unfortunately, it's not my haircut, but I'm glad you approve :)

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The hrrr is bumping the southern cutoff a little southward each run. Wouldn’t affect placement of the heavy band much, but it could atleast make us southern cutoff riders feel better lol

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