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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes and sneaky WAA overunning on Friday for south of the Pike will need to be watched. Right now its PA but that could come east some to affect SWCT especially. Kev do you see what I was saying about this upcoming weekend?

I honestly hope you’re right, but I can’t really envision a scenario where anything snowy falls in SNE. NNE yes 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

There's a silent oddity about the synoptic handling this week, consistent throughout all guidance types..  It has to do with warm terminating frontal position by late Wednesday. 

There's going to be one ... in February, ehem.  Still, the ridge appears well anchored and has much of its integrity still in place, ... Yet rather counter-theoretical "looking" even the Euro is positioning a cold front effectively through the parallel nature of the mid level flow. That should be too soon. Because of this antic, it gives a sort of affect of the models changing the lower troposphere before the mid level instructs it to do so...  

Interesting...  In any case, once that front goes through, the models are differing but in general agree on 1036+ polar high stripping east through Ontario, and that's a bit more realistic to calendar and climate.  But that really isn't the entrance into any would-be -NAO/retrograding pattern tendencies...that still beyond 180 or so hours.  It's really a return to the previous tendency for fast movement, with wave running up toward the GL initially,... with blocking polar wedges to offer snitzle glaze fests for NE...  In fact, we're sort of still in that this week...it's just that we have a bigger ridge expression than prior times.. 

But the polarward index got really ominous overnight re next week ... The AO is about as concerted among the GEFs members as can be ... plummeting to -3 or more SD ..and the NAO is similarly handled...  The PNA?  Heh...not so much...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Pattern def looks primed for a lot of wintry threats after this week. Doesn't look overly cold but it is adequate for snow in most cases. Obviously individual setups are not known at this point but that type of NAO block will make cutters quite difficult...or attempted cutters will want to redevelop south of us. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern def looks primed for a lot of wintry threats after this week. Doesn't look overly cold but it is adequate for snow in most cases. Obviously individual setups are not known at this point but that type of NAO block will make cutters quite difficult...or attempted cutters will want to redevelop south of us. 

Kind of crazy to say, but would not shock me if one of these things is suppressed south. At least maybe in the beginning. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Bigfoot said:

Sorry ,a little off topic ,want to take a trip to ocean city n.j. Boardwalk and wondered about advice if it is worth it in feb,going wed in 70 degree weather ,is the shops and Boardwalk even open ,comming from upstate ny ,so about 5 hrs.2 adults and 1 pup ,any advise would be appreciated before I make this trip ,not looking for amusement park just a calm experience in good weather,thanks guys

Ocean City Maryland is FAR better than Ocean City NJ. If u do not mind the extra drive. 

GEFS AND EPS still very strong with the blocking. GEFS a bit stronger especially with the AO.

Guidance is now introducing a negative EPO in March.

PNA is still negative but trending more towards positive in March.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern def looks primed for a lot of wintry threats after this week. Doesn't look overly cold but it is adequate for snow in most cases. Obviously individual setups are not known at this point but that type of NAO block will make cutters quite difficult...or attempted cutters will want to redevelop south of us. 

Do we worry about suppression...or are we at a climo stage transitioning to spring like wavelengths that congrats Myrtle Beach is less likely?

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern def looks primed for a lot of wintry threats after this week. Doesn't look overly cold but it is adequate for snow in most cases. Obviously individual setups are not known at this point but that type of NAO block will make cutters quite difficult...or attempted cutters will want to redevelop south of us. 

So you're thinking this isn't going to be another voodoo block? Feel we've been burned so many times on this since 2010.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern def looks primed for a lot of wintry threats after this week. Doesn't look overly cold but it is adequate for snow in most cases. Obviously individual setups are not known at this point but that type of NAO block will make cutters quite difficult...or attempted cutters will want to redevelop south of us. 

I was glancing over the individual GEF members ... you can really see them reeling over what to do with the retrograde/slowing aspect of the overall flow over eastern N/A.   Some of them have moderate intensity coastals the hose NE with 30 hour CCBs ...others not so much, but the important aspect is the slow down. 

There probably won't be much deterministic to latch onto until over this weekend... altho - hm, I'm beginning to suspect that the transition between this fast flow over ridge to that next week could be sneaky ... like we may be tracking something similar to what we have been that is forced by the onsetting regime change...

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was glancing over the individual GEF members ... you can really see them reeling over what to do with the retrograde/slowing aspect of the overall flow over eastern N/A.   Some of them have moderate intensity coastals the hose the coast with 30 hour CCBs ...others not so much, but the important aspect is the slow down. 

There probably won't be much deterministic to latch onto until over this weekend... altho - hm, I'm beginning to suspect that the transition between this fast flow over ridge to that next week could be sneaky ... like we may be tracking something similar to what we have been that is forced by the onsetting regime change...

Stongiy agree.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mentioned that before too. Probably helps to have a trough out west. I didn't mean to install a suppression fear, just that it would not shock me of ones sails south of us. 

Yea, my question was more about the late winter time blocks compared to say, an early Jan block. Like do the wavelengths have anything to do with the more likely climo track? 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, my question was more about the late winter time blocks compared to say, an early Jan block. Like do the wavelengths have anything to do with the more likely climo track? 

Wavelengths make the PNA less important later in the season. So as long as we don't have a total firehose into Canada (which we don't), the PNA being negative shouldn't be a huge deal...particularly with the NAO/AO projected to be what it is. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wavelengths make the PNA less important later in the season. So as long as we don't have a total firehose into Canada (which we don't), the PNA being negative shouldn't be a huge deal...particularly with the NAO/AO projected to be what it is. 

Speaking of the PNA, isn't a -PNA/-NAO combo more correlated to an active storm track? I know +PNA/-NAO can be a good combo for cold shots moreso than an active pattern...?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Speaking of the PNA, isn't a -PNA/-NAO combo more correlated to an active storm track? I know +PNA/-NAO can be a good combo for cold shots moreso than an active pattern...?

Yeah some of our best patterns in NE have occurred during -PNA/-NAO regimes. The positive PNA can be more favorable for coastal bombs and KU type events, but a -PNA can produce a lot of moderate to heavy sub-KU events. But in March or even late February, the wavelengths start to shorten enough that sometimes you'll have a -PNA and west cost trough and then a central US ridge and then a deep bowling ball or deep trough over the east. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah some of our best patterns in NE have occurred during -PNA/-NAO regimes. The positive PNA can be more favorable for coastal bombs and KU type events, but a -PNA can produce a lot of moderate to heavy sub-KU events. But in March or even late February, the wavelengths start to shorten enough that sometimes you'll have a -PNA and west cost trough and then a central US ridge and then a deep bowling ball or deep trough over the east. 

What's the best way to learn and understand how the shortening and lengthening of wavelengths and how this influences the overall pattern configuration? Or is it just like visualizing things in your head? 

With your last sentence mentioning how as we move towards late February and into March and the wavelengths begin to shorten and using a +PNA as an example...typically a +PNA would yield a trough axis say digging into the Gulf coast states...but if you have a +PNA during a time when wavelengths are shorter that trough axis would be shifted further west and shifted further east when wavelengths are longer? 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What's the best way to learn and understand how the shortening and lengthening of wavelengths and how this influences the overall pattern configuration? Or is it just like visualizing things in your head? 

With your last sentence mentioning how as we move towards late February and into March and the wavelengths begin to shorten and using a +PNA as an example...typically a +PNA would yield a trough axis say digging into the Gulf coast states...but if you have a +PNA during a time when wavelengths are shorter that trough axis would be shifted further west and shifted further east when wavelengths are longer? 

Yes...that’s the way I envisioned it too..your  last sentence sums it up well in my mind.  The distance between the ridge and the troughs shorten obviously...

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah some of our best patterns in NE have occurred during -PNA/-NAO regimes. The positive PNA can be more favorable for coastal bombs and KU type events, but a -PNA can produce a lot of moderate to heavy sub-KU events. But in March or even late February, the wavelengths start to shorten enough that sometimes you'll have a -PNA and west cost trough and then a central US ridge and then a deep bowling ball or deep trough over the east. 

This is an interesting -PNA because it seems to have retrograded from the Atlantic. There are also gravity waves at 500mb, have you seen much of this (2 examples this Winter, before that none)

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