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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Finally something to track with a ceiling > 8"... 

Huge H5 differences 0z vs. 12z Euro...  energy in southwest races in much faster on this run, and streams phase much earlier compared to 0z... as a result we get a low ejecting off PA rather than NC/VA. More similar to GFS / CMC. Really far out still and this will no doubt fluctuate significantly, but wow is this great consensus among operational / ensembles for a big one. I like the March 2001 analogy.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Just where you want it at D6.

There's a northern limit to this. That is a very strong block and it's retrograding as the storm approaches. But it could still def get good snows up to powderfreak. The circulation is huge. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

For the nostalgia... dug up a great post by Will summarizing the model suspense leading up to Mar 2001...

Origins of the "EE" rule

And kind of captures why pervasive model snow maps today have sucked some of the fun out of this hobby.

That was the only real storm i remember that was actually days and days of snow. Almost a 60 hour event. #2 all time for me. Ended up with a foot+ and snow from early Sunday to almost midnight Tuesday night.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a northern limit to this. That is a very strong block and it's retrograding as the storm approaches. But it could still def get good snows up to powderfreak. The circulation is huge. 

There will be quite the line though somewhere north...be it here to Dryslot or further north/south.  But it looks like it would have some impressive SW to NE gradient.  

Long way to go though.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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13 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Finally something to track with a ceiling > 8"... 

Huge H5 differences 0z vs. 12z Euro...  energy in southwest races in much faster on this run, and streams phase much earlier compared to 0z... as a result we get a low ejecting off PA rather than NC/VA. More similar to GFS / CMC. Really far out still and this will no doubt fluctuate significantly, but wow is this great consensus among operational / ensembles for a big one. I like the March 2001 analogy.

That's what we want, We don't need it holding back  the s/w in the SW or this will never make it up here before hitting the brick wall.

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