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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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This is the type of upper air setup where you can waste an inch of QPF on cold rain and still get 20+. 

Don't want to get everyone thinking we're getting that type of storm yet, but keep that in mind when you see the early stages of the storm maybe a little to warm on guidance. It isn't a death sentence like it might be in other events. This one is going to ingest that dry polar air from the northeast and evaporationally cool the column (as well as latently cool over time) and it's moving so slow that there's plenty of time for let it happen. 

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