Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That looks reasonable. I'm thinking high end advisory snowfall for us (4-6") other than hilly areas, which should easily hit warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think all of WNY west of Wayne county will be under warnings for 6-12” come 4pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I think all of WNY west of Wayne county will be under warnings for 6-12” come 4pm today. They’re gonna have to take this one seriously. It’s gonna be plenty cold for the majority for areas N and W especially. We could see some lake enhancement. This could strengthen still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I think all of WNY west of Wayne county will be under warnings for 6-12” come 4pm today. Agree. CNY could be advisories for where most of the population lives but most counties have hilly areas where 7"+ is probable, so BGM will probably have to go with Warnings also, except maybe southern tier counties west of BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I don't know how KBOX does it, but every storm system seems to hit them. This was rain for most, if not all, of SNE and now they'll be under blizzard warnings before all is said and done. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM might be south. Hmmm. Not much snow thru hr 32. WTF! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: They’re gonna have to take this one seriously. It’s gonna be plenty cold for the majority for areas N and W especially. We could see some lake enhancement. This could strengthen still. Visiting your thread because I'm a trucker who will be heading up from Scranton to Webster Thursday afternoon to deliver to a Lowe's store, then probably reloading somewhere nearby on Friday coming back to Scranton. What can I expect in my travels? I suppose some crappy travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAMed. I’ll never learn. Suppressed. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 lol, ugly aint the word, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM within 36 hours is within its range. Still trust the Euros consistency with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Drop the watches cause of one off NAM runs, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: lol, ugly aint the word, lol! PA Northern Tier/NE PA has had a tough time getting good storms. If we can't get this one, I'll be glad to see it hit them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 WRFS just came in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NAMed. I’ll never learn. Suppressed. Ugly. This is why I usually don't pay attention to off hour GFS or NAM. Too much noise and whiplash. As i said last night, Tonight's 00Z runs should be the ones that get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This is why I usually don't pay attention to off hour GFS or NAM. Too much noise and whiplash. As i said last night, Tonight's 00Z runs should be the ones that get real. lets hope so anyway, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Model inconsistency is likely why BUF didn't pull WSW trigger in afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Model inconsistency is likely why BUF didn't pull WSW trigger in afternoon package. It’s unbelievable. I can’t remember a storm modeled so poorly inside of 48 hours in a long long time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It’s completely different storm from earlier runs!?! Lol South Jersey gets nailed. Crazy. Kroc has been on the northern envelope- so there isn’t a lot of wiggle room. What makes off hr runs less reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z NAM completely dumps remnant lobe. Complete transfer immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: 18z NAM completely dumps remnant lobe. Complete transfer immediately. Is the energy on the West Coast yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It’s unbelievable. I can’t remember a storm modeled so poorly inside of 48 hours in a long long time.. It was poorly modeled as a heavy rain event as recent as Monday am!!! This should be of no surprise!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: 18z NAM completely dumps remnant lobe. Complete transfer immediately. Would definitely suck, but likley what will happen. SNE jackpot as usual. Unreal. We go from 6-12”+ to 3-6” at best. Hope it’s just the nam being the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: 18z NAM completely dumps remnant lobe. Complete transfer immediately. That may or may not be right but the xfer to coastal on this one has been well advertised but how it plays out is the rub and probably why NWP is having so many run to run adjustments. That and the downstream block. I wouldn't be surprised to see significant changes and differnces between models right thru 12z runs tomorrow...pretty close to game time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 50 minutes ago, Voyager said: Visiting your thread because I'm a trucker who will be heading up from Scranton to Webster Thursday afternoon to deliver to a Lowe's store, then probably reloading somewhere nearby on Friday coming back to Scranton. What can I expect in my travels? I suppose some crappy travel conditions. Expect 2”-2’. Slush nuisance to blizzard. Seriously though, your travels, Friday morning will take you through the worst of it. Probably doable but bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ironically the Gfs is now the snowiest model here, at least for the next 30 minutes.. Looking Like March from several years ago, this may become a DC special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Expect 2”-2’. Slush nuisance to blizzard. Seriously though, your travels, Friday morning will take you through the worst of it. Probably doable but bad. Thanks much for the reply! I figured best to go to those who live in and know the climate to give me the best information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 42 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s completely different storm from earlier runs!?! Lol South Jersey gets nailed. Crazy. Kroc has been on the northern envelope- so there isn’t a lot of wiggle room. What makes off hr runs less reliable? 0z and 12z runs have weather balloon data/upper atmosphere info along with surface obs. 6z and 18z have only surface obs from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18Z GFS through 48 hours looks pretty similar to 12Z maybe a touch east. Certainly not the radical change the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z rgem definitely no nam.. Not really focused on the “donut hole “ as nearing a 1/2’ And still snowing..Point is not way south like the nam.. Noticed the euro has a snowstorm next week too, probably have several more chances to cash in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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